Last week
We recorded another good round with 6/7 tips and all 8 of our 3 unit bets at $1.25 or less came in resulting in big profits for the followers. Port Adelaide were the only team that disappointed in the tipping stakes.
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.
Teams with the BYE
Western Bulldogs
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St Kilda Saints ($1.12) vs Fremantle Dockers($6.35) – Friday 7:40pm AEST – 05/08/2011
Ladder position: 7th vs 8th
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won the last 7 with only one win by more than 46 points (2009).
Stats
Saints average 19 more disposals per match
Saints average 14 more marks per match
Fremantle average 3 more scoring shots per match
Fremantle averages 3 more tackles per match
Fremantle averages 6 more hitouts per match
Freo averages 28.21 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 30.23 disposals per goal
Fremantle have won only 3 of their last 17 at Ethiad Stadium (18%) compared to St Kilda’s 62-22-2 (72%)
Team Changes
Dawson suspended and Lynch dropped. Back in comes Riewoldt and Blake.
Palmer and de Boer out injured. Jack Anthony and Crowley dropped. In comes Bradley, Suban, McPharlin and Hinkley
The Verdict
St Kilda were horrible last week against a Gold Coast team that kicked 6 goals 18 behinds and still lost by under 25 points. Both teams have handy changes but at Ethiad, St Kilda should get over the line against a Fremantle team on the improve (lost to 3rd ranked team in Hawks.. mainly due to their 1st QTR.. and saints are the best starters in the game). It will be closer than expected.
St Kilda by 12 points
Betting Options
3 units on Fremantle +60.5 at $1.26
1 unit on Fremantle +36.5 at $1.92
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Geelong Cats ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($16.50) – Saturday 1:40pm AEST – 06/08/2011
Ladder position: 2nd vs 16th
Recent clashes: Geelong won the first meeting by 66 points
Stats
Geelong averages 49 more dispoals per match
Geelong averages 26 more Marks per match
Geelong averages 8 more scoring shots per match
Geelong average 7 more tackles per match
Geelong average 7 more hitouts per match
Geelong average 23.32 disposals per goal
Gold Coast average 35.14 disposals per goal
Gold Coast are missing their no.1 possession getter in Ablett with 29.2 (nextbest 23.5)
Geelong have won their last 28 at Kardinia Park
Team Changes
Enright and Ottens rested. In come Podsiadly and Hunt
Ablett, Prestia and Hunt are all out injured/ill and Matt Shaw is dropped. In comes Harris, Iles, Tape nad Wilkinson
The Verdict
No explanation needed. If dry.. points margin below.. if wet, get rid of 40 points off the margin.
Geelong by 120 points
Betting Options
Skip this game
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Carlton Blues ($1.11) vs Melbourne Demons ($6.70) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 06/08/2011
Ladder position: 4th vs 11th
Recent clashes: Carlton won the last 4 games in a row by 33, 57, 41 and 47
Stats
Carlton averages 30 more disposals per match
Carlton averages 9 more marks per match
Carlton averages 28.5 scoring shots per match compared to Demons 24.9
Carlton averages 6 more tackles per match
Both teams averages 43 hitouts per match (no Jamar for Demons this week)
Carlton averages 25.39 disposals per goal
Melbourne averages 27.42 disposals per game
Both teams have a poor wet record
Team Changes
Houlihan dropped for Joseph
Jamar out injured and Sylvia, Maric, Jurrah and Nicholson are dropped. In comes Davey, Scully, Gawn, Macdonald and Bartram
The Verdict
Melbourne were destroyed on and off the field last week and have dropped some fairly big names. Carlton have stuck with a fairly consistant team and should easily take care of Melbourne.
Carlton by 46
Betting Options
3 units on Carlton -15.5 at $1.24
1 unit on Carlton -29.5 at $1.50
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Essendon Bombers ($2.00) vs Sydney Swans ($1.82) – Saturday 7:20pm AEST – 06/08/2011
Ladder position: 9th vs 6th
Recent clashes: Sydney have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Essendon. Interestingly the last two have been by 9 and 5 points and the last 6 games have all been played in Sydney.
Stats
Essendon averages 20 more disposals per match
Essendon averages 11 more marks per match
Essendon averages 1 more scoring shot per match
Sydney averages 11 more tackles per match
Both teams average 41 hitouts per match
Essendon average 24.66 disposals per goal
Sydney averages 28.47 disposals per goal
Essendon have won only 48% of home games in the last 5 years but the majority of these came in night matchs, winning 63% of all their night matches (77).
Team Changes
Prismall and Colyer out injured with Bellchambers dropped and Hibberd coped a club suspention till end of year. In comes Fletcher, Hocking and Hurley
No changes for Sydney
The Verdict
The stats are very hard to follow for any Swans game. They are generally dominated by teams in the stats department but still get up. Their game is defensive so they don’t get many hitouts, disposals. This game will be VERY close and should go to the wire. Swans are the worst kick infront of goal but being indoors should help them.
Swans by 8 points
Betting Options
Skip this match – easier options
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Port Adelaide Power ($16.65) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.01) – Saturday 7:10pm CEST (7:40pm AEST) – 06/08/2011
Ladder position: 17th vs 1st
Recent clashes: Collingwood has won the last 4 games against Port Adelaide by 31, 38, 26 and 75
Stats
Collingwood averages 44 more disposals per match
Collingwood averages 8 more marks per match
Collingwood averages 12 more scoring shots per match
Collingwood averages 8 more tackles per match
Collingwood averages 3 more hitouts per match
Collingwood averages 21.57 disposals per goal
Port Adelaide averages 29.28 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Logan and Schulz out injured. In comes Pittard and Stewart.
O’Brien out injured with Sinclair, Keefee and Macaffer dropped. In comes Thomas, Didak, Wood and Rounds.
The Verdict
No brainer. As long as team does not change then the points prediction below is sound.
Collingwood by 75
Betting Options
4 units Collingwood -47.5 at $1.26
Brisbane Lions ($1.65) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.25) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST – 07/08/2011
Ladder position:15th vs 14th
Recent clashes: Both teams have won two games of the last four. Brisbane beat Adelaide by 40 points eariler this year in Adelaide.
Stats
Adelaide averages 11 more disposals per match
Adelaide averages 8 more marks per match
Brisbane averages 1 more scoring shot per match
Brisbane averages 6 more tackles per match
Both teams averages 42 hitouts per match
Brisbane averages 29.48 disposals per goal
Adelaide averages 32.69 disposals per game
Adelaide have the best wet weather record in the league winning 70% of games and have a 60% win ratio at the Gabba
Team Changes
In comes Harwood, Dyson and Bewick. No outs as of yet.
Mackay out injured with Cook, Armstrong, McKernan and Thompson back in
The Verdict
Both teams cannot put together 4 QTR’s of football. Adelaide have not beaten anyone of substance in the last 10 rounds apart from Swans who kicked 13 points in a row. Their win against Port Adelaide last week was not surprising. Brisbane took Geelong to the line 3 rounds ok only losing by 30 points after leading for the majority of the match. Expect a bold showing from both teams but for the cracks to show in the Adelaide team.
Brisbane by 20 points
Betting Options
Skip this match – easier options
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Hawthorn Hawks ($1.14) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($5.75) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST – 07/08/2011
Ladder position: 3rd vs 10th
Recent clashes: North has won 2 of the last 4 against Hawthorn including the last meeting in 2010 by 12 points
Stats
Hawthorn averages 50 more disposals per match
Hawthorn averages 31 more marks per match
Hawthorn averages 1 more scoring shot per match
Both teams average 67 tackles per match
North Melbourne averages 3 more hitouts per match
Hawthorn averages 26.52 disposals per game
North Melbourne averages 25.82 disposals per game
Roos have won 2 of their 4 games at Aurora agianst Hawthorn with average scores of 70 for each team.
Roos have won only 25% of wet games compared to Hawks 68%
Team Changes
Ellis out injured with Hodge, Lisle, Bruce and Sierakowski(new) in
Adams out injured with Thomas, Garlett, Macmillan and Atley in
The Verdict
This game will be VERY VERY VERY close. A Kangaroos win would not shock at all. Hawks have not played anyone of significance in the last 6 rounds apart from Collingwood who beat them by 50. Fremantle were undermanned last week and were always going to lose the match. Kangaroos have been impressive over the last 10 rounds and will bring it.. with some very key ins.
Hawks by 2 points
Betting Options
3 units North Melbourne +58.5 at $1.26
1 unit North Melbourne +42.5 at $1.60
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West Coast Eagles ($1.09) vs Richmond Tigers ($7.50) – Sunday 2:40pm WEST (4:40pm AEST) – 07/08/2011
Ladder position: 5th vs 13th
Recent clashes: Richmond have won 3 of the last 4 against West Coast
Stats
West Coast averages 5 more disposals per match
West Coast averages 9 more marks per match
West Coast averages 2 more scoring shots per match
West Coast averages 5 more tackles per match
West Coast averages 18 more hitouts per match
West Coast averages 26.71 disposals per goal
Richmond averages 26.90 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Waters and Mackenzie out injured with Swift and Lycett dropped. In comes Kerr, Naitanui, Masten, Jones, Brown, Dalziell and Sheppard.
Newman and Batchelor out injured. In comes Miller, Grigg, Webberley, Dea and Farmer
The Verdict
West Coast at home against a Richmond team missing their Captain. Enough said.
West Coast by 45
Betting Options
4 units on West Coast -16.5 at $1.24
Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
Carlton -15.5 at $1.24
North Melbourne +58.5 at $1.26
Fremantle +60.5 at $1.26
West Coast -16.5 at $1.24
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
