Welcome to the Round 20 AFL preview. As the Essendon and James Hird reckoning approaches, the saga has once again dominated the football discussion around the nation. Since the AFL received the ASADA interim report on Friday night, the speculation on Hird’s future has hit fever pitch. There is continuously strong rumour that Essendon will be stripped of Premiership points and Hird will be given a deadline to stand down as coach. This of course has seen wooden spoon and final 8 markets change regularly over the past week.
Round 19 produced a string of upsets, including defeats to three of the top four. The big winners were Sydney and Fremantle as both clubs now firmly have a home final to play for with the losses to Hawthorn and Geelong. The Dockers have a dream run home with GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and St Kilda. Any slip ups from the top four and Ross Lyon’s men will have an arm chair ride to a top two position.
Best Bet
Gold Coast @ the -36.5 line
ST KILDA ($11.00) VS HAWTHORN ($1.04)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 09/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Hawthorn 18.15 (123) defeated St Kilda 13.10 (88) at the MCG, R6, 2012
Line: St Kilda +52.5, Hawthorn -52.5
There seems to be a St Kilda player going down on a daily occurrence at the moment. The long term injuries to Sam Fisher, Rhys Stanley, Sam Gilbert, Jackson Ferguson and Tom Simpkin mean the cupboard is close to bare for tall defensive stocks. The experienced James Gwilt and Jason Blake have been rushed back to fill the void. Sydney, Gold Coast and Fremantle follow Hawthorn this week, so the vulnerable times don’t look like ending soon.
It was an uncharacteristic performance by Hawthorn against Richmond. The midfield was absolutely destroyed at the stoppages early, with a count that read 16-2 at quarter time and 54-36 at full time. Contested possession wasn’t any prettier with a differential of -32. Alastair Clarkson would be furious with such damning numbers. Luke Hodge has suffered a poorly timed thumb injury which will require 2 weeks to heal after surgery. Lance Franklin will also miss with hamstring tightness.
Hawthorn has won 12 of the past 13 without Buddy and average 124 points in those games. The line is of interest.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 66 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.18) VS BRISBANE ($4.85)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 10/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Richmond 20.12 (132) defeated Brisbane 12.12 (84) at the Gabba, R19, 2012
Line: Richmond -32.5, Brisbane +32.5
Richmond has secured its first finals berth since 2001 with an impressive victory against Premiership favourite Hawthorn. It will only be the club’s fourth September appearance since its last flag in 1980. That is a long time to wait for the Tigers faithful.
The Richmond midfield is beginning to hit peak form. Cotchin, Deledio, Martin and Ellis all had 25 or more disposals while at the same time they absolutely destroyed the Hawks in the contested possession and clearances. This team certainly has a large section of the media excited, but it needs to be remembered that we are still a month away from finals. Ty Vickery will return and strengthen the line up further.
Brisbane continues its late season revival. The Lions are well and truly in contention for 9th position on the ladder, which comes into play should the Bombers be stripped of any Premiership points. Tom Rockliff has hit top form after a mid season injury that restricted his midfield time. He gathered 39 disposals, including 18 contested possessions and had a large impact on the game. Jonathan Brown and Mitch Golby are significant outs due to injury and suspension respectively.
Richmond has won the last four encounters against Brisbane and will extend that further.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.12) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($6.25)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 10/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Geelong 18.8 (116) defeated Port 9.14 (68) at AAMI, R9, 2013
Line: Geelong -39.5, Port +39.5
Chris Scott has once again had his game plan successfully pulled apart by his brother as North Melbourne continued its impressive returns against Geelong. The Kangaroos had 13 less inside 50s, but gathered a remarkable 432 disposals, the most ever recorded against Geelong. The Cats were continuously drawn to the ball carrier, creating large amounts of forward space for the likes of Brent Harvey and Daniel Wells to run into. It meant that North Melbourne had to bomb into its forward arc only 7 times out of the 46 entries. It is certainly a method that other teams will be looking to adopt. Allen Christensen, Jared Rivers and James Podsialdy will return to the team.
Port Adelaide is the feel good story of the season. This time last year the club was struggling to get profitable crowds to home games and it appeared no one wanted to coach. 12 months on and the Power is on the verge of securing a finals berth, 2 wins clear of Carlton in 9th. The spectacular win against Adelaide has been described as the greatest Showdown ever; with Angus Monfries unbelievable bounce goal and Chad Wingard’s 5 goal performance immediately becoming South Australian football folk law.
The Cats have won the last 8 encounters and always bounce back well from a loss. It is impossible not to back them in this situation.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 43 POINTS
CARLTON ($1.32) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($3.40)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 10/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Carlton 16.6 (102) defeated Dogs 12.12 (84) at Etihad, R17, 2012
Line: Carlton -20.5, Dogs +20.5
Carlton has lost touch with Port Adelaide and it now needs to rely on other team’s results or a point deduction to Essendon to see any finals action. The Blues were beaten in nearly every statistical area and once again had underperforming senior players. The greatest form concern would have to be the consistency of first year skipper Marc Murphy. He was held to a disappointing 13 touches against Fremantle and is averaging 7.3 disposals per game less this year than in 2011. It is a significant drop in output. Jarrad Waite returns while Andrew Carrazzo has again gone down with injury and will miss. Matthew Kreuzer is a surprise out with a calf injury.
The Western Bulldogs are well backed for this game. Brendan McCartney’s men were competitive for long periods against the reigning Premier and will take great confidence into this contest. Tom Liberatore has continued his great stoppage work, averaging 7.8 clearances a game, the most of any player since 1999. He has been the main contributor to the Dogs being the second highest clearance side in the competition.
Carlton certainly has more to play for, but it is difficult to write the Dogs off. I expect it to be tight.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 13 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.43) VS COLLINGWOOD ($2.80)
AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 10/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Sydney 15.12 (102) defeated Collingwood 8.7 (55) at the MCG, R9, 2013
Line: Sydney -16.5, Collingwood +16.5
The dominant Collingwood performance against Essendon has given this match a well timed boost in interest.
Sydney did what it needed to against the Western Bulldogs after getting threatened at various stages of the game. Kieren Jack was outstanding once again with 30 disposals and 2 goals and has now shortened to $14.00 for the Brownlow Medal. We identified him in the mid season review and he hasn’t let us down since. Kurt Tippett became the first Sydney player to kick 5 or more goals in a game this season, a real indication of the variety of goal kicking options this team possesses.
Collingwood looked like a new team against Essendon. Its tackling pressure was the highlight with a +28 differential, despite having 43 more disposals. Where the Pies would be a little concerned is in the clearance rates. In comparison, Sydney average 8.1 clearances a game more than Collingwood, which is a lot despite being involved in a higher amount of stoppages. Darren Jolly has pulled up sore after his comeback through the VFL and won’t make the trip to Sydney, meaning first year player Brodie Grundy will have to take on Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke on his lonesome.
The Pies have won 8 of the 11 encounters at the venue, but with a home Qualifying Final on the line, the Swans will be difficult to beat in tight.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
GOLD COAST ($1.13) VS MELBOURNE ($6.00)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 10/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Gold Coast 16.18 (114) defeated Melbourne 7.12 (54) at the MCG, R7, 2013
Line: Gold Coast -36.5, Melbourne +36.5
The Suns have had a confidence building season and get another opportunity to build its wins tally against the struggling Demons. The main area Gold Coast has improved this year is winning the footy in tight. It now ranks top 8 in the competition for both contested possessions and clearances as the third year bodies continue to mature. It has also been far more effective disposing the ball which has seen it’s efficiency rise to 71.3% this year.
Neil Craig would have been bitterly disappointed with the GWS performance. The younger Giants had 53 more disposals and 8 more inside 50s. At the end of the day, the 37 point loss to the club that is yet to register a win is unacceptable. Neil Craig has basically dashed any hopes of retaining the senior coaching role next year.
Gold Coast belted Melbourne earlier in the year and it is difficult to believe that the gap has closed. The Dees have no one to go with Gary Ablett, who averages 33 possessions against them as a Sun. The Gold Coast -36.5 line is outstanding value.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 57 POINTS
ESSENDON ($1.37) VS WEST COAST ($3.10)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 11/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Essendon 15.8 (98) defeated West Coast 13.13 (91) at Patersons, R14, 2013
Line: Essendon -19.5, West Coast +19.5
There is so much to talk about Essendon it is difficult to know where to start. The Collingwood game was the first real indication that the drugs saga was starting to take its toll on the field. The players looked genuinely tired and the pressure/tackling statistics backed that up. The only positive to come out of the day was the return of Jobe Watson. He finished with 31 disposals and was clearly the best Essendon player on the ground. The whispers gathering momentum around the football world and social media is that the players are going to get off scotch free. If this ends up being the case, it would have to be seen as a good result, even if the club does get severely sanctioned. Courtenay Dempsey will miss a month of football but the Bombers will regain Crameri, Hurley and Winderlich.
West Coast was solid against the Suns, but it is difficult to understand what it can get out of the remaining 4 weeks. It does have some younger players producing impressive performances like Mark Hutchings, Blayne Wilson and Scott Lycett, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see more blooded. Priddis, Masten and LeCras have been named, but all three appear on the extended interchange.
Who knows what will become public between now and match day in regards to the ASADA report? I wouldn’t be touching this game with your hard earned until things become clearer.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($2.00) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.80)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SUNDAY 11/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Adelaide 18.17 (125) defeated North 19.10 (124) at Etihad, R9, 2013
Line: Adelaide +3.5, North -3.5
This is one of the more interesting games of the round. Adelaide’s form has been decent over the last month or so. It beat Geelong at home, conceded only 33 inside 50s against Fremantle at Patersons and led Port Adelaide by 20 points at the 22 minute of the last quarter before a combination of brilliant play and luck brought the Crows down. Patrick Dangerfield kicked 4 goals on return and will be given a greater midfield role this week. Rory Sloane will be given a test closer to the game to see if he has recovered from the eye injury.
North Melbourne had its best win of the year against Geelong. It once again exposed Geelong with hard running into planned space and created pressure free inside 50s.It recorded the most possessions against any Geelong outfit and operated at an amazing 75.7%. There is a bit of rain forecast for Sunday afternoon in Adelaide, which won’t suit a side like North Melbourne that relies on outside run and highly efficient skills.
I think this will be a tight contest and if it becomes wet, the Crows will benefit. Low confidence, but I think the Crows will get up here.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
FREMANTLE ($1.001) VS GWS ($21.00)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 11/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 18.24 (132) defeated GWS 5.7 (37) at Patersons, R17, 2012
Line: Fremantle -73.5, GWS +73.5
It was the perfect set of results of the Dockers last week. The Geelong and Hawthorn loses mean that Fremantle now have an opportunity of a home Qualifying Final with matches against GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and St Kilda. It will start short priced favourites in all of those games. It also gives an opportunity to rest some sore bodies before the intense rigors of finals football. David Mundy is the perfect example of that having shouldered much of the midfield loads with Barlow and Fyfe for the season and is apparently struggling with an ankle complaint. Zac Clarke continues to give Ross Lyon the luxury of easing Aaron Sandilands into AFL football and you’d expect his workload to left against GWS. Matthew Pavlich and Garrick Ibbotson are obviously important inclusions.
Finally, the Giants have won a game! By the reactions of the players singing the song, it was a great relief not being recognised as the first team to have a winless season since 1964. It was also one of the first occurrences of the season that GWS ran out and won a final quarter. Like I have been saying all year, this is just a matter of patience. There is going to be a very good team playing out of the Sydney Showgrounds in a few years time.
Fremantle will flex its top four muscle here and produce a nice percentage boost.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 82 POINTS
