Welcome to The Profits round 20 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
West Coast Eagles ($1.92) vs Geelong Cats ($1.92) – Patersons Stadium, Friday August 10, 6.40pm
Recent clashes: Geelong 17.15 (117) defeated West Coast 10.9 (69), second preliminary final, 2011 at the MCG
Game preview: The home final is slipping from West Coast’s grasp as the top 4 position they need is starting to become a distant dream. The Eagles maybe starting to feel the loss of quality players due to injury or suspension at times but somehow they need to get the better of the Cats at Subiaco, something they have been able to do consistently. This is no ordinary Geelong. Is this an ordinary West Coast?
Cats by 5
Line: Cats +2.5
St Kilda Saints ($1.05) vs Melbourne Demons ($10.50) – MCG, Saturday August 11, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: St Kilda 12.12 (84) defeated Melbourne 10.6 (66), round five, 2012 at MCG
Game preview: The faintest glimmer of hope for making the finals can be retained if the Saints can beat Melbourne. A few other results need to go their way over the next few rounds for them to make it but finals still remain a mathematical possibility. Melbourne was expected to win last week (by some) and they won comfortably. Beating the Saints is altogether another level for the struggling Dees.
Saints by 67
Line: Saints – 48.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.43) vs Freemantle Dockers ($2.85) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday August 11, 1.40pm
Recent clashes: Fremantle 12.10 (82) defeated by Adelaide 17.9 (111), round 10, 2012 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: The Dockers will need to play as well as they did last week against the Eagles to have any chance of winning this game. Level on wins with 7th placed North and 8th placed Essendon AND those two teams playing each other this weekend a win over the Crows will put them in the 8. Playing Adelaide away and winning will be a bigger challenge for Fremantle than last week’s Derby win over the Eagles.
Dockers by 15
Line: Dockers +17.5
Gold Coast Suns ($1.40) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($2.95) – Metricon Stadium, Saturday August 11, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Greater Western Sydney 13.16 (94) d Gold Coast 9.13 (67), round seven, 2012, at Manuka Oval
Game preview: There are a lot more important games than this one on the weekend but for tipping difficulty level this match is up there with the best. The Giants won last week and the Suns were well beaten so based on form……ok losing form…..maybe the Giants can win back to back. A flip of the coin maybe needed.
Giants by 1
Line: Giants +17.5
Sydney Swans ($1.52) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.55) – ANZ Stadium, Saturday August 11, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 13.21 (99) d Sydney Swans 14.9 (93), round 14, 2011 at ANZ Stadium
Game preview: Top of the ladder plays 3rd and you can’t argue about the form of the Sydney Swans. They have been unbeatable for 9 weeks and Collingwood is standing in their way of making that 10 in a row. But the Pies present a big hurdle for that 10th Sydney win as history has shown that the Magpies have had the wood over the Swans, particularly at ANZ Stadium, over the years. The Swans eventually have to lose one don’t they? Just to even things up Collingwood have suspended their best player, Dane Swan, for drinking alcohol outside of allowed hours.
Swans by 25
Line: Swans -12.5
Carlton Blues ($1.20) vs Brisbane Lions ($4.60) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday August 11, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 23.16 (154) d Brisbane Lions 9.9 (63), round 2, 2012, at the Gabba
Game preview: It’s suggested that Ratten’s tenure at the Blues will be over at the end of the season and there is already talk of Carlton easily making top 4 next season. Just as they easily will win the premiership in 2012! They, like St Kilda, can still make the 8 and beating the Brisbane Lions in this match will be one small step towards that goal.
Blues by 20
Line: Lions +31.5
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Port Adelaide ($17.00) – Aurora Stadium, Sunday August 12, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: Hawthorn 16.12 (108) d Port Adelaide 9.8 (62), round 11, 2012 at AAMI Stadium
Game preview: The first coach of 2012 has taken a bullet for the team as Primus departs the Power and it’s hoped he celebrates with a good night’s sleep because Port Adelaide has been his personal nightmare all year! The Hawthorn juggernaut was finally spiked last week by Geelong but that loss and Buddy’s car accident notwithstanding they will be in the mood to give the Power a bit of a touch up this week. Hocking, the new stand-in coach at Port Adelaide has taken over for the last 4 games so his nightmares are just starting.
Hawks by 100+
Line: Hawks -80.5
Richmond Tigers ($1.16) vs Western Bulldogs ($5.25) – MCG, Sunday August 12, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Western Bulldogs 23.15 (153) d Richmond 18.10 (118) in round eight, 2011, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: The Tigers got themselves back into the winning circle last week and there’s nothing to suggest that the form of the Western Bulldogs is good enough to break that Tiger ring. The Bulldogs need a bit of an overhaul in some positions, a bit of experience in others and certainly need a focal point up forward. The Tigers are travelling okay, just the close games they lost which sees them where they are on the ladder instead of in the 8.
Tigers by 31
Line: Dogs +35.5
Essendon Bombers ($2.30) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.62) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday August 12, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: North Melbourne 15.12 (102) defeated by Essendon 14.20 (104) round 1, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: There’s a hell of a lot hanging on this game as both teams are on equal points sitting 7th and 8th on the ladder. Fremantle is breathing down their necks but fortunately for North and Essendon Freo has a tough one against Adelaide. The Bombers are again running out of steam like they did last year and any slip up is going to cost them dearly. North is playing pretty consistent football but they will need to play at their best to beat a desperate Essendon. Should be a really close game. A draw would really complicate ladder predictions.
Kangaroos by 11
Line: Kangaroos -8.5
Betting
BEST BET: Fremantle +17.5 at $1.91
Sydney 1-39 at $2.25
Hawthorn -80.5 at $1.91
St Kilda 40+ at $1.63
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
