Last week
We recorded a much needed perfect round of 8/8 last week. This week will be a little tougher with only 3/7 games a sure thing. It will be interesting to note in the last 5 years, how many teams have gone into a game $1.10 or less odds and actually lost. I will be taking any Gold Coast games out of that record as they were always going to go in this price and eventually win a few. I can only assume this number will be close to 1-2 with 30-40 wins by teams $1.10 or less. Stay tuned
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.
Teams with the BYE
Brisbane Lions
Richmond Tigers
Sydney Swans
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North Melbourne Kangaroos ($3.55) vs Carlton Blues ($1.30) – Friday 7:40pm AEST – 29/07/2011
Ladder position: 10th vs 4th
Recent clashes: Roos have won 7 of the last 8 games against Carlton
The Stats
Team Changes
Warren dropped from Roos side and replaced with Cunnington.
Curnow and Twomey dropped with McLean and Houlihan coming back into the side.
The Verdict
Both teams are coming off good wins and recent form suggests this will be a very close match. North Melbourne have beaten Carlton 7 of the last 8 meetings which is a huge stat to consider when looking at this match. The one game we can look at recently to see where these two teams are at is the Carlton and Roos games against the Pies. The Roos lost by 117 points compared to Carlton the very next week losing by 19. The Kangaroos have been better since then but we cannot see them getting over the line against a strong Carlton team.
Carlton by 27 points
Betting Options
3 units Carlton Head-to-head $1.28
1 unit Carlton Margin 1-39 at $2.09
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Western Bulldogs ($2.06) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.77) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 30/07/2011
Ladder position: 10th v 14th
Recent clashes: West Coast have won 3 of the last 4 meetings including a 123 point win in round 9 over the Doggies.
Team Changes
ALOT of changes.
Dogs lose Cooney, Higgens and Djerrkura to injury, drop Gilbee, Addison, Grant and Markovic
In for Dogs – Hargrave, Murphy, Stack, Mulligan, Roughead, Sherman and Barlow.
WCE Lose Kennedy and Naitanui to injury with Swift and Lycett (new) coming in.
The Verdict
The Eagles are 3/7 on the road this season which is a little concerning. The plus side is the Eagles big recent win in Melbourne against Carlton. The Dogs have suffered loses to the Roos and Swans in the last two weeks by over 30 points and we expect this trend to continue with their big outs (even with the Eagles outs).
Eagles by 32 points
Betting Options
3 units West Coast +18.5 at $1.25
1 unit West Coast -9.5 at $1.92
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Geelong Cats ($1.07) vs Melbourne Demons ($8.65) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 30/07/2011
Ladder position: 2nd vs 11th
Recent clashes: Cats have won the last 6 meetings against the Demons (last 4 by over 40 points)
Team Changes
Byrnes, Pods and Hunt are out injured with Cowan being dropped from Cats side with Stevie J, Ling, Ottens and Mooney all coming back
Bennell has been dropped and Jurrah back in for Demons.
The Verdict
The Cats lose a few key players but replace them with some very handy premiership players who come back into the side. As we all know, the Cats have won their last 25 at Skilled Stadium and Melbourne will not upset this stat. Expect a big showing from Hawkins up forward with Pods out!
Cats by 47
Betting Options
3 units Geelong -19.5 at $1.24
1 unit Geelong -39.5 at $1.67
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Gold Coast Suns ($7.50) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.09) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 30/07/2011
Ladder position: 16th vs 8th
Recent clashes: No previous clashes
Team Changes
Iles out Injured and Toy, Liddy and Wilkinson dropped for Suns. In comes Hunt, Jolly, May and Taylor
Riewoldt out suspended with Tom Lunch replacing him in the side.
The Verdict
The saints have been in good form of late and Riewoldt is a fairly big out, but not the be all and end all of this team who have been looking to other goal kickers all year. The odds have this game right with Saints expected to dominate this game. The suns are skillful but will not be able to keep up with this talented Saints squad who are pushing towards the finals.
Saints by 55 points
Betting Options
3 units Saints -15.5 at $1.24
1 unit Saints -33.5 at $1.61
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Fremantle Dockers ($2.90) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.41) – Saturday 5:40pm AWST (7:40pm AEST) – 30/07/2011
Ladder position: 7th vs 3rd
Recent clashes: Hawks have won the last 4 games agains the Dockers (excluding a pre-lim which Dockers won)
Team Changes
Suban out injured and McPharlin suspended from Freo squad. In comes Palmer and Anthony.
Savage out injured and Suckling back into Hawks squad.
The Verdict
Still no Sandilands or Bradley for Freo means they are no where near full strength. Evident with the inclusion of Anthony into their squad to give another option up forward. The Hawks were great last week and have been consistantly great over the last 2 months. The Hawks easily won their last two away games against Port adelaide and Sydney by over 30 points (only away loss to Adelaide in round 1) and we expect this to continue. If you remember back to the MCG game this year, Freo were up by 27 points with 18 minutes left in the game and they fell over and died on the field, losing by 22! The Hawks will be ready this time.
Hawks by 25
Betting Options
3 units Hawthorn +13.5 at $1.25
1 unit Hawthorn -14.5 at $1.92
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Collingwood Magpies ($1.07) vs Essendon Bombers ($8.65) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST – 31/07/2011
Ladder position: 1st vs 9th
Recent clashes: Pies have won the last 4 games against the Bombers
Team Changes
Wood and McCarthy dropped from Pies squad with Beams, Rounds, Jolly back in with also two first gamers in Sinclair and Ugle.
Pears and Hurley are our injured for Dons with Watson, Welsh, Bellchambers, Browne and Ross (new) all back into squad.
The Verdict
Collingwood are not presenting their best team available right now. They are trying to get their players ready for the finals and have included two first time players into the mix this week. Watson, Welsh and Bellchambers are huge ins for the Dons but we can’t see these players doing enough to give the Dons a chance, as they have been horrible the last month and still miss a few key players in their lineup, including Hurley who was just dropped.
Collingwood by 37 points
Betting Options
4 units Collingwood -20.5 at $1.24
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Adelaide Crows ($1.58) vs Port Adelaide Power ($2.39) – Sunday 4:10pm ACST (4.40pm AEST) – 31/07/2011
Ladder position: 14th vs 17th
Recent clashes: Port Adelaide have won 5 of the last 6 games against Adelaide
Team Changes
Symes is out injured from Crows team with Knights, Maric, Walker and Riley all selected.
Port have dropped no one this week and Westhoff, Broadbent and Stewart all come into the mix for selection.
The Verdict
A number of key players coming back into the Adelaide squad that was belted last week by Saints. There are still a large number of key injuries to the Crows list. On the other hand, Port Adelaide have a close to full strength team lining up. We expect this to be a very close match but cannot see the Crows bouncing back from such a poor game last week. If Port had anything left to play for this season, it’s to beat their rivals in the Crows, which they have managed to do in 5 of the last 6 derby’s.
Port Adelaide by 12 points
Betting Options
3 units Port Adelaide +37.5 at $1.25
1 unit Port Adelaide +9.5 at $1.92
Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
West Coast +18.5 at $1.25
Geelong -19.5 at $1.24
Saints -15.5 at $1.24
Hawthorn +13.5 at $1.25
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
