Welcome to the Round 19 AFL preview. It now appears that the final 8 race is down to nine. The West Coast Eagles lost its must win game against the Western Bulldogs, once again with a host of experienced stars missing due to injury. It has been the story of their year and is a genuine reason for the dramatic fall down the ladder. John Worsfold looks like he’ll be granted another contract and coach his 13th consecutive season at West Coast, despite the disappointing year. Premierships were well and truly on the radar this year, but what more can be expected when you can’t get the best team on the field?
The gap for the real premiership race has widened between the top 3 and the rest, as Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney all had impressive victories. The Swans play Geelong and Hawthorn in the last two rounds of the season, which will decide which two of the three get rewarded with home advantages in the Qualifying Finals. The scenario may mean that Sydney has to defeat Hawthorn and Geelong in its last five consecutive games to win the flag. It is a mouth watering prospect if the cards do fall that way.
At this point in time, 2nd position looks like a far more appealing position than 1st for Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney. Firstly, it most likely means a home Qualifying Final against an interstate team. Secondly, it means an easier Preliminary Final against a side like Essendon or Fremantle should that 2nd placed team win in the first week. A lot can change in 5 weeks and these top teams still have a lot to play for before things get serious in September.
Best Bets
Melbourne to win @ $2.10
Essendon to win @ $2.15
NORTH MELBOURNE ($3.45) vs GEELONG ($1.31)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 02/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R2, Geelong 16.16 (112) dftd North Melbourne 17.6 (108) at ES
Line: North +22.5, Geelong -22.5
North Melbourne has been a bit of a menace for Geelong in the last couple seasons. It started round 3 last year when North got out to an early lead and the Cats weren’t able to pull them in. Enter round 2 this year and North again found itself with a significant lead against Geelong, this time by 41 points. This occasion we saw Geelong fight back to win in the last minute, which arguably started the mental weakness that has seen North Melbourne give up numerous leads throughout the season.
Brad Scott would have been pleased with the 20 goal win against Melbourne, but the question has to be asked as to whether they are downhill skiers. It could be stated that North Melbourne were just as good as Melbourne were bad, but that doesn’t mean that positives shouldn’t be taken out of the performance. The only disappointment of the day was the loss of Captain Andrew Swallow to an achilles injury that will see him miss the rest of the year and a large chunk of the preseason.
The Cats gave its usual statement after an upset loss, belting St Kilda to the tune of 101 points. James Podsiadly is the latest undisciplined Cat to be suspended and will miss this important encounter. Dawson Simpson will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury after solving Geelong’s early season stoppage complications. He will be a bigger exclusion than most expect. Jimmy Bartel returns from suspension.
North match up very well against the Cats, but Andrew Swallow is a massive loss and isn’t easily replaced. Expect a stronger start for the Cats that will see them to victory.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 18 POINTS
GWS ($1.83) vs MELBOURNE ($2.00)
AT SKODA STADIUM, SATURDAY 02/08, 13:45
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: | 2013, R4, Melbourne | 22.12 | (144) | dftd | GWS Giants | 15.13 | (103) | at MCG |
Line: GWS -2.5, Melbourne +2.5
This game has genuine entitlement to be classed as match of the round. While it isn’t an Essendon vs Collingwood blockbuster, the potential drama that could be produced between the leagues two lowest clubs is sure to have most neutral supporters on the edge of their seats!
This is the first time that GWS has ever been installed as the favourite of an AFL match. The money is coming in thick and fast for the Giants to win its first game of the season. The main reason of these odds is due to the ridiculous form of Jeremy Cameron. After an incredible 7 goals against Collingwood, he now has 50 goals for the season and is only 4 goals behind Jarryd Roughead and Josh Kennedy for the Coleman Medal. The fact that he plays for a side that hasn’t won a game all season and averages only 39.8 inside 50s a match makes it even more amazing.
The Demons were downright awful against North Melbourne. Scoring only 4.4 (28) in the perfect conditions of Etihad Stadium is as bad as any league club can get. Although it could be the required kick up the proverbial that this team needed coming into a winnable game. Cameron will be the major issue without James Frawley, but Colin Garland will return. Chris Dawes will also miss with a calf problem.
The Giants are yet to put together a four quarter performance this year and I can’t see that changing out of the blue. Cameron will be double teamed and the Demon’s have more influential senior players. They look great value despite last week’s awful form.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
HAWTHORN ($1.22) vs RICHMOND ($4.30)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 03/08, 14:10
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R9, Richmond | 21.11 | (137) | dftd | Hawthorn | 10.15 | (75) | at MCG |
Line: Hawthorn -28.5, Richmond +28.5
Richmond failed the Sydney test on Sunday, but it gets another chance to compete against a top 4 club in Hawthorn on Saturday Afternoon. Like Sydney, Richmond gave the Hawks an unexpected belting last year and will be looking to prove it can produce a similar performance with September just around the corner.
Hawthorn went out with a mission on Friday night against its great rival Essendon. It proved that the Bombers 2nd placing on the ladder was a tad premature. Lance Franklin looked as fresh as a daisy on a sunny spring morning after his two week rest and gave everyone a nice little reminder of what he is capable of with a spectacular 8 goal performance. Shaun Burgoyne is a handy inclusion after serving his suspension.
The Tigers were competitive in most key statistical areas against the Swans, but for one glaring exception in the inside 50s. Sydney entered its arc 18 more times, despite having 17 less disposals, which showed that Richmond struggled to get past its centre and half forward lines.
The Hawks look like it is beginning to step up the pace which isn’t what Richmond will want to see. It will be a learning experience for the Tiges, but another loss.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 38 POINTS
WEST COAST ($1.42) vs GOLD COAST ($2.85)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 03/08, 16:40
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R14, West Coast | 25.16 | (166) | dftd | Gold Coast | 5.10 | (40) | at PS |
Line: West Coast -15.5, Gold Coast +15.5
This match is now as good as a dead rubber. The most important topics coming out of the game is whether Gary Ablett can extend his likely lead of the Brownlow Medal and how many goals Josh Kennedy can add to the 54 he has already kicked.
As explained in the introduction, the Eagles disappointing season is now done and dusted in terms of finals. And believe it or not, the injury list grew further. The inform Chris Masten is the latest casualty with what could be a season ending ankle injury, while Jack Darling’s knee collided with Ryan Griffen and is in doubt to be ready for Saturday. Darren Glass returns to the side, although Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras are still missing.
The Suns were disappointing against Carlton. After the great Collingwood performance, it isn’t out of order to have expected a more consistent showing. One positive was the return of Charlie Dixon to the side, kicking 2 goals and gathering 17 disposals around the ground. The injury to Tom Nicholls may see Dixon needing to shoulder a larger percentage of the ruck, a situation that Guy McKenna wouldn’t have preferred. Thompson, Prestia and Swallow return for the Suns.
It is difficult to know what to expect with the Eagles injuries. I’d be leaving this game alone.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
CARLTON ($1.85) vs FREMANTLE ($1.95)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 03/08, 19:40
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R5, Fremantle | 7.15 | (57) | lost to | Carlton | 10.5 | (65) | at PS |
Line: Carlton -2.5, Fremantle +2.5
We have another game with claims to being match of the round. This actually holds very important finals ramifications. A loss to Carlton and it could well lose touch with the 8 depending on Port Adelaide’s result, a loss to Fremantle and its top 4 credentials would have to be questioned.
Carlton is beginning to hit some impressive form. It went to Metricon Stadium with large consequences hanging over its head and came home with a convincing 7 goal win. The move forward of Lachie Henderson has been major reason Carlton is on a 3 game winning streak. The injury to Jarrad Waite meant there was a gaping hole in the forward 50 and Henderson has filled that role admirably.
The Dockers set a quirky new record against Adelaide by only entering its forward arc 33 times, the least amount ever recorded for a winning team. It is a real compliment to the Ross Lyon game plan, proving that quality entrances are far more effective than bombing the ball aimlessly. Hayden Ballantyne is the only inclusion of the recently missing big names.
Both clubs have poor records at Etihad Stadium, but the Blues have only lost to Geelong and Hawthorn there this year.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 14 POINTS
BRISBANE ($1.21) vs ST KILDA ($4.40)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 03/08, 19:40
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R16, Brisbane Lions | 14.8 | (92) | lost to | St Kilda | 16.9 | (105) | at GA |
Line: Brisbane -29.5, St Kilda +29.5
There is going to be more and more dead rubbers as the home and away fixture comes to an end and here is another one.
Brisbane were a minor final 8 threat at the start of the round, but that was put to rest despite an impressive performance against Port Adelaide. It has had an impressive second half of the season which is likely to have saved Michael Voss his job. You’d now think with his employment as good as safe and that finals are now completely out of the question, we’ll start seeing Voss blood some youngsters that haven’t had the opportunity to play at the highest level. Pearce Hanley is a surprise inclusion.
The Saints have now been dragged into the drugs controversy, with Ahmed Saad testing positive to a banned substance. Saad now has a 2 year suspension hanging over his head, pending a B sample test. This is just another addition to the long list of recent St Kilda controversies. Saad has admitted that it was an innocent mistake, but with the Essendon drama unfolding in front of our eyes, how can such aberrations be made?
Riewoldt, Hayes and Gwilt all succumbed to injury during the Geelong nightmare. Brisbane will win convincingly.
BRISBANE TO WIN BY 41 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($7.50) vs SYDNEY ($1.09)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 04/08, 13:10
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2012, R21, Western Bulldogs | 13.7 | (85) | lost to | Sydney | 26.11 | (167) | at ES |
Line: Dogs +42.5, Sydney -42.5
It is hard not to admire this Sydney team. It just keeps getting the business done with minimal fuss, even in the absence of some established senior players. Injuries to Sam Reid and Adam Goodes has seen Jesse White given an opportunity to save his career and has done so well that he now has a number of clubs chasing his signature. Credit needs to be given to John Longmire for having such faith in his list. It has enabled the successful introduction of youngsters like Mitchell, Rampe, Brandon Jack and Jed Lamb on top of the improvement of White and Everitt. Rhyce Shaw makes his long awaited return to the senior side.
Brendan McCartney is doing some good things at the Western Bulldogs. This time last year, the Dogs were getting smashed every week and on a long losing streak. The improvement and development is obvious for all to see, especially after the West Coast victory. Luke Dahlhaus has struggled with consistency this season, but produced the best game of his career against West Coast with 29 disposals and 4 goals. Matthew Boyd has again gone down with a calf injury, while Daniel Cross’ VFL form has become too difficult to ignore.
I really can’t see the Dogs being competitive here. The Swans will run away to a comfortable victory.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 51 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($2.15) vs PORT ADELAIDE ($1.70)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SUNDAY 04/08, 15:20
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: | 2013, R3, Port Adelaide | 17.16 | (118) | dftd | Adelaide | 16.13 | (109) | at AA |
Line: Adelaide +6.5, Port -6.5
Showdown number 35 doesn’t hold the usual bells and whistles of previous encounters, but it does hold season defining consequences for Port Adelaide if it doesn’t win.
The Crows have been without Patrick Dangerfield for two weeks, but it has managed to produce two of its best performances for the year against quality opposition. The tight Geelong win two weeks ago has already been discussed, but the Fremantle match produced just as many positives despite the loss. Adelaide somehow managed to restrict the Dockers to only 33 inside 50s, yet still lost the game. It had more of the ball, more contested possessions, more clearances, yet couldn’t do enough to get a winning score on the board. Rory Sloane will miss the game with an eye injury, while Patrick Dangerfield will be given until the last moment to get up.
The Power are showing small signs of tiring. Two weeks ago it nearly let an 8 goal lead slip against St Kilda, while it had to fight hard to get over the line against Brisbane. Chad Wingard kicked the only goal of the final quarter to further enhance his All Australian credentials. He has now kicked 30 goals for the season while averaging 22 possessions a game. It is an unbelievable performance for a second year player.
If both Dangerfield and Sloane are missing, it is nearly impossible to tip the Crows. Keep an eye out for the final teams before having a bet.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
COLLINGWOOD ($1.77) vs ESSENDON ($2.05)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 04/08, 16:40
| PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2013, R5, Essendon | 18.13 | (121) | dftd | Collingwood | 10.15 | (75) | at MCG |
Line: Collingwood -4.5, Essendon +4.5
Who would have thought that Collingwood and Essendon were playing each other this week? Any presence of this match has been drowned out by the latest instalment of the Essendon drugs saga with David Evans standing down and Dean “The Weapon” Robinson opening up to the public for the first time. This is such an important match to the bottom half of the 8, yet it has hardly been promoted as anything of significance at all.
The Pies are coming off a couple of bad weeks. It started with an unexpected loss on the Gold Coast and was followed by a massive scare from Jeremy Cameron and GWS. Based on these results, I’m really finding it difficult to understand how Collingwood are installed as favourites. Dayne Beams hasn’t missed a beat since returning, averaging an impressive 32 possessions. Luke Ball will return to the side after being rested with a calf injury.
The absence of Jobe Watson has obviously hurt Essendon. The disposal and contested possession numbers have been well down since that Western Bulldogs game and the race is on to get Watson ready for this week. He has been named along with Dustin Fletcher.
Every time the drug controversy has reared its ugly head with new allegations, it has almost driven the Bombers to perform on the field. Essendon have only lost to Hawthorn since Round 10 and beat Collingwood convincingly Round 5, these $2.00+ odds just seem unjustified.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
