Welcome to The Profits round 19 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Geelong Cats ($3.60) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.30) – MCG, Friday August 3, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Yeah, it’s one of them blockbusters for Friday night and if the last lot of blockbusters is anything to go by this might be a fizzer as well. The Cats are really in great form but Hawthorn look to be in greater form. Geelong has faltered occasionally particularly in the big games and it sure is hard to tip against the Hawks. Tipsters can expect the game to go down to the wire but it’s just as likely to be a big margin.
Hawks by 12
Line: Cats +26.5
Western Bulldogs ($8.00) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.08) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday August 4, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Western Bulldogs 15.11 (101) d North Melbourne 12.11 (83), round 7, 2012, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: You would need a lot of convincing to tip the Bulldogs who are having a tough season. Last week they got hammered by the Saints and this week they might get the same treatment from North who seemed to have found that little extra something they needed from last year to go that one step better. North simply cannot afford to lose and with their main opponents for the position in the 8 facing tough games here’s the chance to put a bit of breathing space between them.
Kangaroos by 55
Line: Kangaroos – 48.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($8.00) vs Port Adelaide Power ($1.08) – Skoda Stadium, Saturday August 4, 2.10pm
Recent clashes: First meeting
Game preview: This might be one of those games you make a selection based on gut feeling because as sure as your bum is pointing to the ground you can’t tip either of these teams on form! GWS has been smashed in the past few games by margins that Bradman used to score in runs in an afternoon of test cricket. Port has not allowed such huge losses but they also have not been playing well. As much as I would like to reach out to the Giants and tip them logic says it would be a dumb selection.
Power by 30
Line: Giants +47.5
Freemantle Dockers ($2.65) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.48) – Patersons Stadium, Saturday August 4, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 11.18 (84) defeated Fremantle 5.6 (36), round nine, 2012, at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: The Western Derby has always been a great match played in Perth and I can see the local newspaper is beating the game up as usual. There’s nothing to say the Dockers can’t win this one but they would have to play out of their skins to top West Coast who is working hard to get back in the top 4 which they must do to have a chance at the flag. Stakes are high for both teams but the Eagles look just that little bit better across the ground.
Eagles by 25
Line: Eagles – 17.5
Collingwood Magpies ($1.40) vs St Kilda Saints ($3.00) – MCG, Saturday August 4, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 14.5 (89) d St Kilda 10.10 (70), round 21, 2011, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: The Saints thrashed the Bulldogs last week and the Pies annihilated the Giants so the two teams bring a bit of form into this match albeit both sides lost the week before that. Collingwood looks to be getting some players back that have been missing of late and the Pies need to find something extra in the contested possessions if they want to beat St Kilda and maintain their position in the top 4. The Saints have a lot to play for. A loss in this game and a win to North places their finals chances in serious jeopardy.
Magpies by 18
Line: Magpies -15.5
Brisbane Lions ($2.25) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.65) – The Gabba, Saturday August 4, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Richmond 18.17 (125) d Brisbane Lions 14.10 (94), round 13, 2011, at the Gabba
Game preview: This game is one of the tough ones to tip but you could do sillier things than put a few dollars on the Richmond Tigers to win by 3 points. Richmond loves to lose close ones and they have a great opportunity to make it 4 close losses from 4 consecutive games if they put their mind to it! Brisbane copped a caning from West Coast last week but apart from that result they haven’t been travelling too badly. You can estimate that Richmond missed the finals by no more than 2 goals! Both teams are on the same number of wins.
Tigers by 10
Line: Tigers -7.5
Melbourne Demons ($1.33) vs Gold Coast Suns ($3.30) – MCG, Sunday August 5, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: Melbourne 17.10 (112) d Gold Coast 12.10 (82), round 23, 2011 at the MCG.
Game preview: The match between the cellar dwellers is one that is difficult to pick not only because of their ladder positions but also because neither team is bringing any winning form into the game. The Suns have a realistic chance of winning this and if the game was at Metricon there would be no hesitation to tip them. The MCG can be a bit daunting at times for young players. The Dees are really a basket case this season and it’s hard to see where they are heading. The game probably won’t reach great heights but the teams both have reasons to win.
Suns by 12
Line: Suns +21.5
Carlton Blues ($3.05) vs Sydney Swans ($1.38) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday August 5, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 15.10 (100) d Sydney Swans 10.6 (66), round 13, 2011, at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: Tip the Blues to win and they lose – tip them to lose and they win. Carlton has been a nightmare to pick each week with some real inconsistent form. This week they play the top team in the competition and the win against Richmond last week counts for nothing if they lose this. They remain Judderless but still have the players to challenge Sydney who is looking for its 9th straight win. Look for who I tip and go the opposite to ensure a tipping point for this game.
Swans by 25
Line: Swans -16.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.15) vs Essendon Bombers ($5.50) – AAMI Stadium, Sunday August 5, 4.10pm
Recent clashes: Adelaide 10.13 (73) defeated by Essendon 12.12 (84) round 17, 2011 at AAMI Stadium
Game preview: The Bomber season is turning into a repeat nightmare of 2011 when Essendon swept all before them in the early part of the season only to lose lots of games later and finish nowhere. Another loss for them is looming in this match against Adelaide who lost to Geelong last week but is showing more consistent form than the Dons. The Bombers might be lucky in that contenders for their ladder position all have tough games apart from North. The Crows need to keep winning to stay in the top 4.
Crows by 22
Line: Bombers +37.5
Betting
BEST BET: Magpies 1-39 at $2.15
Suns +21.5 at $1.92
Bombers +37.5 at $1.92
Eagles -6.5 at $1.54
Kangaroos -32.5 at 1.42
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
