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Team with the BYE
Port Adelaide Power
St Kilda Saints ($1.10) vs Adelaide Crows ($7.05) – Friday 7:40pm AEST – 22/07/2011
Ladder position: 10th v 14th
Recent clashes: Adelaide have won the last two meetings (Both in Adelaide). The two previous in Melbourne were won by St Kilda.
Recent form St Kilda: BYE, Win NORTH, Win PORT, Win WCE
Recent form Adelaide: Loss GEE, Win SYD, BYE, Loss Ess
St Kilda have won 72% of games at Ethiad compared to Adelaide’s 44% in the last 5 years
The Stats
Team Changes
Gwilt out with a knee injury and Geary comes in (Saints).
Jaensch out with a shoulder injury and Gunston comes in (Adelaide)
The Verdict
Adelaide have been horrible the last few weeks. They cannot hold down a press for 4 QTR’s and collapsed after half-time against Essendon last week in Adelaide. St Kilda have been valiant the last few weeks including a win last week over top 4 contenders West Coast. Saints should easily take care of Adelaide on the weekend and we expect the margin to reach close to the 40 point mark.
St Kilda by 35
Betting Options
4 units St Kilda -16.5 at $1.30
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.10) Vs Brisbane Lions ($7.05) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 23/07/2011
Ladder position: 11th v 15th
Recent clashes: Brisbane has won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the only North Melbourne win being by 1 point.
Recent form Kangaroos: Win PORT, Loss SAINTS, Loss COLL, Win WB
Recent form Lions: Loss FREO, Win PORT, Loss HAW, Loss GEE
Kangaroos have won 55% of games at Ethiad Stadium compared to Brisbanes 30% over the last 5 years
The Stats
Team Changes
Speight out injured with Shoulder injury. Delaney dropped. In comes Tarrant and Richardson (Roos)
Brown out injured and Harwood dropped. In comes Corelius and Buchanan (Brisbane)
The Verdict
Brisbane are still missing Rich in their midfield and eariler in the year looked lost with no Brown up forward so he will be a big loss. The roos looked gone at certain points of last weeks game but to their credit rallyed and beat a Dogs team that were expected to beat them easily. Expect a bold showing from the Roos. 5 Brisbane players resigned during the week which can always help out a squads spirits.
Kangaroos by 29
Betting Options
4 units Brisbane +67.5 at $1.24 (Have only lost by an amount higher than this price… in round 2. Cats + Hawks last two games were under 45 point margins)
Sydney Swans ($1.52) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.55) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST- 23/07/2011
Ladder position: 8th v 12th
Recent clashes: Sydney have won the last two meetings with Western Bulldogs winning the 4 previous games to that.
Recent form Sydney: Loss COLL, Loss ADE, Win GCFC, Loss FREO
Recent form Western Bulldogs: Win GCFC, Win MELB, Win CARL, Loss NMFC
It has been raining severly in Sydney the past three days so expect the ground to be wet.
Sydney have won 69% of games at the SCG compared to Bulldogs 25% in the last 5 years
The Stats
Team Changes
Jesse White dropped for Jude Bolton (Sydney)
Murphy out injured and Hill + Reid dropped. In Addison, Djerrkura and Schofield (Western Bulldogs)
The Verdict
We were very unsure about this game until we saw the team changes. Western Bulldogs are not the best travellers and with Murphy out for Dogs and Bolton in for Sydney, we think these changes will make the difference in the 4 QTR’s of the game.
Sydney by 25
Betting Options
1 unit Sydney -10.5 at $1.92
3 units Sydney +17.5 at $1.25
Gold Coast Suns ($15.00) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.01) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST- 23/07/2011
Ladder position: 16th v 1st
Recent form Suns: Loss WB, Loss FREO, Loss SYD, Win RICH
Recent form Pies: Win SYD, Win HAW, Win NMFC, Win CARL
Recent clashes: First clash
The Stats
Team Changes
Dixon and Jolly out with Weller and Krakouer In (Suns)
Toovey and Wellingham out Injured, Jolly out Ill and Rounds dropped. In Goldsack, Macaffer, Wood and Buckley (Pies)
The Verdict
Pies are $1.01 for good reason and there is no doubt about the result. It is all about the margin. The suns are coming in with a fairly strong team compared to the pies who have dropped a number of key players. This is about the worst team they have fielded all year. Expect Gold Coast to not get thumped by over 100 points.
Collingwood by 60
Betting Options
2 units Gold Coast +90.5 at $1.50
Essendon Bombers ($2.80) vs Carlton Blues ($1.44) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST- 23/07/2011
Ladder position: 7th v 4th
Recent clashes: The last meeting (Round 4 this year) ended in a draw. Before that Carlton won by 76 points and then Essendon had won the previous 6 clashes
Recent form Bombers: Loss HAW, Win GEE, Win RICH, Win ADE
Recent form Blues: Loss WCE, Win RICH, Loss WB, Loss CARL
Both teams have been poor at the MCG recently with Dons winning 36% of games and Carlton 41%. Both teams compared have 5 draws out of 110 games between them at the MCG over the last 5 years.
The Stats
Team Changes
Hocking out (sore) with Carlisile coming in (Dons)
Bower and Joseph both out injured and Watson dropped with Armfield, Tuohy and Davies in (Blues)
The Verdict
Dons were hopeless last week in the first 2 QTR’s against the Crows, but did get home for the win like we suggested. Thanks to Drew for some brilliant insights into the game live on twitter Friday evening. He talked up Dons chance even when down by 30+ at half-time which was paying $7.50 in play. At 3QTR Time he then told the members to get on Dons at $3.40 and they all collected! Enough about the Dons, the Blues were good against the Pies last week. They didn’t win but they turned up for 4 QTR’s. We see this game going the distance but the Blues should scrape over the line.
Blues by 19
Betting Options
2 units Carlton 1-39 at $2.34
Geelong Cats ($1.07) vs Richmond Tigers ($8.65) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST- 24/07/2011
Ladder position: 2nd v 13th
Recent clashes: Geelong have won the last 6 clashes including one win over 100 points and another over 150!
Recent form Cats: Win ADE, Loss ESS, Loss WCE, Win BRIS
Recent form Tigers: Loss MELB, Loss CARL, Loss ESS, Loss GCFC
Cats have won 69% of games at Ethiad compared to Richmonds 34% in last 5 years
The Stats
Team Changes
Ling is out sore with Hogan and Motlop dropped. Byrnes, Scarlett, Wojcinski, Menzel, Duncan and Cowan all in the mix (Cats)
Helbig out injured and Browne dropped. Graham, Tuck, Morton, Farmer and Webberley all in the mix (Tigers)
The Verdict
The Cats are short price favourites for a good reason. They will continue winning this week against a Tigers team who were beaten by the Suns.
Cats by 67
Betting Options
1 unit Cats -38.5 at $1.61
4 units Cats -22.5 at $1.27
Melbourne Demons ($4.20) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.23) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST- 24/07/2011
Ladder position: 9th v 3rd
Recent clashes: Hawthorn have won the last 7 matches with Melbourne not getting any closer than 19 points.
Recent form Demons: Win RICH, Loss WB, BYE, Win PORT
Recent form Hawks: Win ESS, Loss COLL, Win BRIS, BYE
Melbourne have won 47% of games at the MCG while Hawthorn have won 59% in the last 5 years
The Stats
Team Changes
Morton out with Bartram, Bate, Dunn and Evans all in the mix (Demons)
Suckling out injured with Rioli, Sewell, Lewis and Lisle all back in (Hawks)
The Verdict
The Demons didn’t perform as well as expected last week against Port, winning by under 30 points. Demons will suffer from having to travel up north for the game and will look a little soft in the first QTR. This is all the Hawks will need to get ahead and to take care of the Demons, with some very handy in’s for the Hawks.
Hawks by 40
Betting Options
4 units Hawks -10.5 at $1.40
Fremantle Dockers ($2.77) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.45) – Sunday 2:40pm AWST (4:40pm AEST)- 24/07/2011
Ladder position: 6th v 5th
Recent clashes: Fremantle have won 7 of the last 8 matchs but West Coast got up eariler this year by 33 points.
Recent form Dockers: Win BRIS, Win GCFC, BYE, Win SYD
Recent form Eagles: Win CARL, BYE, Win GEE, Loss SAINTS
Fremantle have won 62% of games at Patersons Stadium compared to West Coasts 61% recently. Interestingly, if it rains, West Coast have won 70% of wet games compared to Fremantles 37.5%
The Stats
Team Changes
Hayden out Injured with Suban, Crowley, Pitt and new player Faulks selected (Freo)
Stevens has been dropped and Brown, McGinnity, Sheppard and Hams back in the mix (WCE)
The Verdict
The West Coast have struggled to win in Melbourne lately and that was what happened on the weekend when St Kilda, the best starting team in the league, jumped them in the first QTR. They fought back hard but couldn’t win it in the end. On the other hand, Freo had an away win over Sydney. West Coast smashed a hot Freo squad when they first met. West Coast is in better shape injury wise than when they met Freo last time while Freo are missing Sandilands and Bradley from their lineup.
West Coast Eagles by 27
Betting Options
1 unit West Coast -15.5 at $1.92
3 units West Coast +12.5 at $1.25
Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
Hawks -10.5 at $1.40
Cats -22.5 at $1.27
Brisbane +67.5 at $1.24
St Kilda -16.5 at $1.30
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
