Welcome to the Round 18 AFL Preview. Round 17 was certainly a character building weekend for many punters around the nation, including myself. The Gold Coast Suns and Adelaide managed to upset highly fancied September bound opponents in Collingwood and Geelong respectively and create unpredictability in the Top 6. Essendon have now overtaken Geelong in 2nd position while Fremantle’s loss has it sitting a win and significant percentage outside the all important double chance.
We have been gifted another opportunity of first vs second on Friday night with the traditional rivalry of Essendon and Hawthorn. An Essendon victory will open the Top 4 right up, potentially leaving four sides all within half a game of one another. The other wildcard is of course the Fremantle Dockers. It is drawn to meet Adelaide, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne, Port (at home) and St Kilda over the final 6 weeks and will be right in contention come Round 23.
Best Bet
Gold Coast @ +13.5 point line
ESSENDON ($3.30) VS HAWTHORN ($1.35)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 26/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Hawthorn 27.18 (180) defeated Essendon 12.14 (86) at Etihad, R18, 2012.
Line: Essendon + 21.5, Hawthorn -21.5
The unexpected Geelong loss has meant that this is now a top of the table clash. As stated earlier, the result will have massive implications to the top 4. An Essendon win in particular has enormous ramifications.
The Bombers are on an absolute high at the moment, comfortably getting across the line against GWS to notch its 6th consecutive victory. The continued success of Essendon is sure to have the AFL nervous with the ongoing investigation coming close to a conclusion. Considering its position and record against quality opposition, it is difficult to believe that the Bombers are still paying $13.00 for the flag and $1.75 to make the Top 4, despite the loaming threat of its points being stripped.
Hawthorn now sits a game and percentage on top of the ladder. It was hardly impressive against the Bulldogs, but did enough for an expected win and got through the game unscathed injury wise. Once again, Lance Franklin is expected to return to the side, but I’d wait for the final teams to believe that. Sam Mitchell also returns.
The Hawks could be feeling a fraction spent after 3 interstate trips in a month, although it has a strong recent record against Essendon.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
GOLD COAST ($2.60) VS CARLTON ($1.48)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 27/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Gold Coast 15.8 (98) defeated Carlton 11.20 (86) at Metricon, R22, 2012
Line: Gold Coast +13.5, Carlton -13.5
Despite both clubs languishing outside the Top 8, this match is potentially the most interesting of the round. How can we forget round 22 last year when the Suns produced one of the upsets of the year and finished Carlton’s season off? We could well be set for some déjà vu.
The Suns produced arguably the greatest victory of its short existence against Collingwood. Once again, Nathan Buckley chose to let Gary Ablett run unrestricted. He took full advantage of the freedom with 49 disposals and 2 match defining goals. He was again superbly supported by Rising Star favourite Jaegar O’Meara who gathered 23 possessions and kicked 3 goals. Tom Nicholls continues his sharp rise in the absence of Zac Smith and is sure to be generating mass interest from rival clubs. The forgotten Charlie Dixon will return to the line up.
In one of the better games of the year, Carlton scraped through by a point against North Melbourne after leading by 35 points. Mitch Robinson will return to the team after an impressive performance in the VFL.
This is much tighter than the odds suggest. The Suns are every chance, but expect Mick Malthouse to give Ablett an extremely tight tag. The Gold Coast line looks great value at +13.5.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($12.00) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.03)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 27/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: North 19.13 (127) defeated Melbourne 11.7 (73) at Etihad, R18, 2012
Line: Melbourne +57.5, North -57.5
North Melbourne has one of the more lopsided head to head recent records of any club against Melbourne, having won the last 10 encounters and that doesn’t look like changing any time soon.
The Demons performances continue to get better as the season continues. Brisbane looked comfortable for a majority of the night, but Melbourne showed enough courage to stay in touch for longer than most expected. Colin Garland, who is every chance to be leading the best and fairest, will miss with an ankle injury.
North Melbourne almost managed to reverse its own trend against Carlton. It was down by 35 points at the 20 minute mark of the third quarter and stormed late to lose another match by under a goal. Brad Scott and his men just can’t take a trick. This is a must win game as North Melbourne have potentially the most difficult run home of any club.
The North Melbourne dominance of Melbourne is hard to ignore and at Etihad, this could get one sided quickly.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 69 POINTS
COLLINGWOOD ($1.001) VS GWS ($21.00)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 27/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Collingwood 26.18 (174) defeated GWS 7.12 (54) at Skoda, R18, 2012
Line: Collingwood -86.5, GWS +86.5
What was Nathan Buckley thinking? After 53 and 36 disposals in his two previous games against Collingwood as a Sun, you would have thought that Gary Ablett’s space at the very minimum would have been protected. To Buckley’s credit, he has admitted that the supposed strategy was an obvious mistake and oversight. Travis Cloke’s inaccuracy continues to haunt his club and he has apparently been working on it far more than usual at training. Whether it is a technical flaw or in the head, it isn’t something that will fix itself with a click of the finger. Harry O’Brien finally returns.
Kevin Sheedy and Leon Cameron would be pleased with the Giants second competitive performance against Essendon for the season. Cameron was as dangerous as usual with 9 shots on goal and was well supported by Jon Giles when going forward who kicked 4 goals. Adam Tomlinson finally got recognition for his great season with a Rising Star nomination.
The Pies will be pleased to be coming up against GWS with its position in the 8 under threat. Make no mistake; they’ll be out to make a statement after the Gold Coast hiccup.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 100 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.06) VS ST KILDA ($9.00)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 27/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Geelong 18.15 (123) defeated St Kilda 11.15 (81) at Etihad, R21, 2012
Line: Geelong -45.5, St Kilda +45.5
Geelong is beginning to develop a trend of taking the foot off the gas when it feels it is in a comfortable position. This time it led by 30 points halfway through the third and looked to have the points wrapped up with the wind at its back coming home in the last quarter. Some quick, defendable goals from Adelaide just before three quarter time saw momentum grow and the players produced some fantastic football in the last 30 minutes. Media and supporters decided to lay blame on Bartel and Taylor deciding to snap with late set shots, but the real problems were on show well before those moments. Bartel will miss this week due to suspension, but Steve Johnson returns.
The Saints were yet another club to come back from a large margin. St Kilda was as far as 47 points down during the 2nd quarter, but were guided back into the contest by familiar names like Montagna, Riewoldt, Dal Santo, McEvoy and Steven. Jack Steven in particular was influential, kicking 2 clutch goals in the last quarter to keep the Saints in the game. The players really showed some genuine heart to get back from such a dire position.
The Saints haven’t travelled to Geelong since 2004. It is difficult seeing them being competitive against a rebounding Geelong outfit.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 55 POINTS
FREMANTLE ($1.26) VS ADELAIDE ($4.00)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 27/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 10.6 (60) defeated Adelaide 8.11 (59) at AAMI, R10, 2013
Line: Fremantle -24.5, Adelaide +24.5
Ross Lyon would have been disappointed with the effort against Richmond. He was missing key players, but that problem has been dealt with on a consistent basis this season for the Dockers. Aaron Sandilands will return after staying in Perth last week with the flu, but McPharlin and Ballantyne will be unavailable once again. If the Dockers can beat Adelaide and Carlton, it is beautifully set for a late charge at a top 4 berth.
Who needs Patrick Dangerfield? Ok, most clubs, but Brenton Sanderson would be wondering how the midfield performed so well in his absence. It was a credible performance after looking like getting blown away halfway through the third quarter. Ricky Henderson has become an extremely important intercept player down back for Adelaide. He has averaged 25.75 disposals over the last month and looks to have taken the next step. Dangerfield, Walker and Reilly are quality players to be missing from injury, but apart from that, there aren’t too many others unavailable.
These teams met only last month and the odds have certainly changed from that day where Fremantle were great value. The Dockers have only lost one game at Patersons this year, I can’t see that changing.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 18 POINTS
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.40) VS BRISBANE ($2.90)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SUNDAY 28/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Brisbane 16.8 (104) defeated Port 14.9 (93) at AAMI, R22, 2012
Line: Port -16.5, Brisbane +16.5
Port Adelaide has another opportunity to consolidate a top 8 position with a home game against the Brisbane Lions. After nearly giving up a 47 point lead against the Saints, Ken Hinkley will be looking for a more consistent performance with September just around the corner. After this game, Port plays Adelaide, Geelong, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton. It isn’t the easiest draw on offer so the Power must beat the teams below it on the ladder as a minimum. Kane Cornes is an important inclusion after missing a week due to suspension.
Brisbane has now won 3 games on the trot and if it wasn’t for such a poor percentage, Michael Voss’ men would be an outside chance for finals action. Instead, the Lions have to win an extra game to its rivals due to being the 4th leakiest defence in the competition. Jonathan Brown will be given until as late as possible to prove his fitness, but the early signs aren’t good. Brent Moloney and Mitch Golby return to the 22.
The Lions have won the last 4 games against Port Adelaide, but this is a different team under Ken Hinkley. I’d be shocked if that streak isn’t broken.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 27 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($2.85) VS WEST COAST ($1.43)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 28/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: West Coast 21.11 (137) defeated Dogs 10.7 (67) at Patersons, R6, 2013
Line: Dogs +17.5, Eagles -17.5
There isn’t too much to be said about the Dogs that hasn’t already been mentioned in previous weeks. The young inside midfielders continue winning contested footy and clearances, Ryan Griffen is dominating the competition, Adam Cooney looks the fittest since his Brownlow year and Will Minson remains on track for All Australian honours. It all sounds fairly familiar doesn’t it? Thankfully the Dogs didn’t add to the recent injuries of Johannisen, Smith and Goodes. Matthew Boyd will return to the line up after an extended break out.
It was a tough game for the Eagles against Swans. They were destroyed by Sydney in the midfield with all the big names collecting large numbers, while the contested ball and clearance stats blew out. Nic Naitanui has finally succumbed to his groin injury and will be “rested” for at least two weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have seen the big man for the last time this season. Surprise, surprise, Beau Waters has again gone down with injury. This time he has been put in cotton wool until next year. LeCras, Glass and Shuey will also miss.
West Coast has demolished the Dogs in recent times, but the injury list is astronomical. I wouldn’t be touching this game.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.24) VS RICHMOND ($4.00)
AT THE SCG, SUNDAY 28/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 13.13 (91) defeated Sydney 8.14 (62) at the MCG, R7, 2012
Line: Sydney -25.5, Richmond +25.5
Sydney has moved into equal second premiership favouritism with Geelong at $4.00. The Swan’s midfield of Jack, Hannebery, Kennedy, O’Keefe, Parker, McVeigh and Bird has to be considered as the best in the competition. There are rarely times when they don’t all at least have some impact on the game. John Longmire now has the likes of Mitchell, Lamb and Brandon Jack coming through the ranks and they have added to the midfield depth. The Swans are in a great position and still have Goodes, Jetta, McGlynn and Shaw to return.
Richmond is now an outside chance for a late top 4 run after defeating the highly rated Fremantle. Since the North Melbourne capitulation, Damien Hardwick’s team has managed to consolidate. The Tigers play Sydney and Hawthorn over the next two weeks, which is the perfect test coming into almost guaranteed September action. It needs to be remembered that Richmond beat both Sydney and Hawthorn in 2012, just imagine if that could be replicated?
Richmond has won 3 or the last 4 encounters against Sydney, but it is too difficult to tip against the reigning premier this late in the season.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 14 POINTS
THE AUTHOR
I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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