Welcome to The Profits round 18 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Essendon Bombers ($4.60) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.20) – Etihad Stadium, Friday July 27, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Essendon 12.9 (81), round 14, 2011 at the MCG
Game preview: It probably would have made more sense to move this game to the MCG considering its status but I guess Etihad will be full and provide a great atmosphere. Not being a Bomber fan it irks me to wish that they win in the hope that something can stop this Hawthorn juggernaut which still has Buddy and Hodge to come in. Essendon has fallen from the top four and this game will probably assist their downward spiral.
Hawks by 40+
Line: Hawks – 30.5
Geelong Cats ($1.70) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.15) – Simonds Stadium, Saturday July 28, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Adelaide 19.8 (122) d Geelong 10.12 (72), round seven, 2012 at AAMI Stadium
Game preview: Although the Crows sit higher on the ladder than the Cats, this trip to the cattery will test them as Geelong found some great form against Essendon last week. Adelaide buried West Coast as well so form is also good. Are the Crows the real deal this season? They haven’t won at Simonds stadium since 2003. Can Geelong return to form good enough to defend the premiership?
Cats by 5
Line: Crows +6.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.10) vs Melbourne Demons ($7.10) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday July 28, 2.10pm
Recent clashes: North Melbourne 19.10 (124) d Melbourne 12.11 (83), round eight, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: North is back in the 8 and it will take a better team than Melbourne to remove them. Interestingly Demons has not beaten North since 2006 and have only managed 2 wins this season beating Bombers and Giants. North are a small percentage ahead of Fremantle but below them is Carlton and St Kilda and to a lesser extent Richmond. All those teams will be fighting for that position. It’s difficult to see the Demons improving that much to trouble North for very long.
Kangaroos by 61
Line: Kangaroos – 44.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($26.00) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.01) – Skoda Stadium, Saturday, July 28, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: First Meeting
Game preview: Collingwood has one of the lowest percentages in the top 4 and it would be nice if they could despatch the Giants by 100 points or more. It would also be nice to see the Dawk and the Cloak come into a few goals albeit against mediocre opposition. It’s impossible to tip GWS in this game. Let’s move on.
Magpies by 100+
Line: Magpies – 90.5
Carlton Blues ($2.18) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.67) – MCG, Saturday July 28, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 18.17 (125) d Richmond 12.9 (81), round one, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: The Tigers promised so much this season as did Carlton and here we are in round 18 wondering whether either team will make the finals. Richmond suffered two agonizingly close defeats in its last 2 rounds and those results have determined their fate. They need to make a statement and beating the Blues who have been decimated by injury and suspension is one way of doing it. Carlton’s finals hopes hang by a thread.
Tigers by 22
Line: Tigers -7.5
Gold Coast Suns ($10.00) vs Sydney Swans ($1.05) – Metricon Stadium, Saturday July 28, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 15.16 (106) d Gold Coast 4.12 (36), round 16, 2011, at Metricon Stadium
Game preview: This is just what the Swans needed. An easy game and a possible percentage booster….not! The Suns have improved their results quite a bit in the past couple of weeks with a win and a narrow loss to Brisbane but even at Metricon it’s hard to see them challenge Sydney too much. The Swans have worked very hard to get to top position and will not let that slip too easily.
Swans by 75
Line: Swans -50.5
Port Adelaide Power ($2.35) vs Fremantle Dockers ($1.60) – AAMI Stadium, Sunday July 29, 12.40pm
Recent clashes: Fremantle 12.15 (87) defeated Port Adelaide 7.5 (47), round 7, 2012 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: This is certainly no ‘gimme’ for the Fremantle Dockers and it would be a tragedy to let a game like this, which they would expect to win, cause them ladder and finals concerns later on. I think Freo will have to battle the Power all the way to win this game and a Port Adelaide win would not be surprising. Pavlich is in great form so stopping him will be Port’s priority.
Dockers by 35
Line: Dockers -10.5
St Kilda Saints ($1.16) vs Western Bulldogs ($5.25) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday July 29, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: St Kilda 15.13 (103) defeated Western Bulldogs 5.10 (40), round three, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: That final 8 position is still available and teams like St Kilda cannot drop games like this to the Western Bulldogs and possibly lose touch. The Saints gave it everything against the Swans last week but fell short in the last 10 minutes. Similarly the Bulldogs took the game right up to Carlton but were well beaten in the final quarter. The Saints will prevail but it will be hard fought for most of the game.
Saints by 40+
Line: Saints -30.5
West Coast Eagles ($1.16) vs Brisbane Lions ($5.50) – Patersons Stadium, Sunday July 29, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: Brisbane Lions 16.6 (102) defeated West Coast 15.10 (100), round 10, 2012 at the Gabba
Game preview: The loss the Eagles suffered against the Lions in Round 10 has come back to haunt them so it’s doubtful they will let Brisbane get even that close let alone allow them to win the game. The Lions battled against the Suns last week but this trip west is even tougher. West Coast has dropped from the top 4 but if they can keep winning and maintain pressure on teams above them there might be a slip that will allow them back in. Only one loss so far at home for the Eagles and that record will be maintained.
Eagles by 38
Line: Eagles -35.5
Betting
BEST BET: Dockers -10.5 at 1.92
Hawks -18.5 at $1.51
Tigers -10.5 at $2.00
Eagles 1-39 at $2.30
Crows +17.5 at 1.50
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
