Welcome to the Round 17 AFL preview. As we get closer and closer to September, the final eight becomes more settled. West Coast and Carlton are both four points outside the eight, while North Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane have two wins to make up. North Melbourne had the perfect opportunity to be only a game out, but again gave up a 5+ goal lead and fell over at the last hurdle against Brisbane. Port Adelaide is still currently holding 8th position and has a winnable match against St Kilda, meaning the teams challenging must win to just keep pace.
The Premiership market is really starting to heat up. Hawthorn ($3.25), Geelong ($3.75) and Sydney ($4.75) continue to be the three most backed teams, while other Top 4 contenders Fremantle ($8.50) and Essendon ($14.00) look decent value in comparison. The short term movement of Essendon’s odds will be interesting given the recent speculation that it is likely to see the club escape punishment from ASADA. If you are keen to have a flutter at its juicy odds, keep in mind that it still likely to get sanctioned from the scathing Ziggy Switkowski report.
Best Bets
Port Adelaide @ -5.5 line
Fremantle to win @ $2.08
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.80) VS CARLTON ($2.00)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 19/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: North 24.5 (149) defeated Carlton 14.12 (96) at Etihad, R16, 2012
Line: North -3.5, Carlton +3.5
These are the two teams that have disappointed me the most in 2013. Some would say that is quite harsh with West Coast and Adelaide having significant drops, but at least those clubs have genuine reasoning’s with key injuries.
North Melbourne let its fourth 30+ point lead be overrun for the season. How on earth can this happen to a team with such talent and experienced faces like Andrew Swallow, Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Daniel Wells? It has some young faces coming through, but most have already established themselves at AFL level and should have the character to close out a game. This is an obvious mental weakness that has shown no signs of improvement. It is interesting to note that Brad Scott recognised it as a problem in May, yet this week dismissed it as an issue. Perhaps completely ignoring the state of mind exists is his new method of application? Who knows?
There were finally some positive signs displayed by the Blues. Firstly, the mini St Kilda curse is over. Secondly, there were two impressive performances produced by key position forwards in the navy blue, neither of which had the No.30 on their back. Lachie Henderson and Sam Rowe kicked 7 goals between them against St Kilda and owned the forward 50. The timing couldn’t be better as Jarrad Waite is expected to miss another 1-2 weeks. Marc Murphy is in doubt with a hamstring.
I wouldn’t be betting on this match as I can’t trust either club at this point in time. North appear to have the better form and much prefer Etihad Stadium. That doesn’t mean a capitulation isn’t on the cards.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
HAWTHORN ($1.01) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($16.00)
AT AURORA STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Hawthorn 17.14 (116) defeated Dogs 6.8 (44) at Etihad, R16, 2012
Line: Hawthorn -64.5, Dogs +64.5
Is it just me or are Aurora Stadium matches continuously producing “meh” type encounters? There isn’t too much to get excited about here as the Hawks have accounted for the Dogs easily in recent times. The main interest around this match is the absence of Lance Franklin. As you may have remembered this time last year, he missed a large chunk of matches without real explanation. Do we have a similar situation? His availability isn’t likely to have an effect on the game itself, but fantasy football coaches and Coleman medal backers will be sweating on his status. Shaun Burgoyne will miss due to suspension.
The Dogs will be on a high after a competitive performance against Essendon. A controversially brought back advantage goal to Nathan Hrovat in the last quarter ended the Western Bulldog’s momentum. Unfortunately, tough inside midfielder Clay Smith will out of action for up to 12 months after it was confirmed he requires a knee reconstruction.
The forward line of Roughead and Gunston will destroy the Dogs inexperienced backline, even without Buddy. The likes of Jordan Roughead and Michael Talia will be having sleepless nights.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 70 POINTS
GWS ($21.00) VS ESSENDON ($1.001)
AT SKODA STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Essendon 17.18 (120) defeated GWS 12.9 (81) at Etihad, R6, 2013
Line: GWS +71.5, Essendon -71.5
Another game that is likely to see an ugly result. GWS were taught an inside football lesson against its big brother the Sydney Swans last week, with the reigning premier having 50 more contested possessions. That wasn’t the only ugly stat with the Swans recording 31 inside 50 marks and 46 more inside 50s. We are all being as patient as we can with the Giants, but the good old folk of Western Sydney don’t need to be seeing such one-sided results. The Giants are apparently considering trading the coveted No.1 draft pick for some mature and experienced bodies, which I believe is a good idea if it receives the correct compensation.
The Bombers continue to get the job done. The Dogs was its first test without the extended absence of skipper Jobe Watson and it certainly appeared to take a while to get used too. The Bombers have a tough run home and is sure to rest any sore bodies against the minnow of the competition.
The Bombers will be managing its players looking toward upcoming blockbusters against Hawthorn and Collingwood. That doesn’t mean it won’t blow out here.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 84 POINTS
GOLD COAST ($4.55) VS COLLINGWOOD ($1.17)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/07 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Collingwood 23.11 (149) defeated Gold Coast 7.10 (49) at the MCG, R10, 2012
Line: Gold Coast +28.5, Collingwood -28.5
Here we have two clubs heading in opposite directions. The Gold Coast Suns started the season in impressive touch, but 4 consecutive losses is a sign that the young side is beginning to tire. Collingwood looks to have completely changed its form around since a disappointing away loss to Port Adelaide.
If finals were ever on the mind of Guy McKenna, those hopes would have been put to rest after Richmond finally broke its hoodoo against the Suns at Cairns. So what will the Suns be looking to achieve for the rest of the season? Obviously continued development will be of most importance, but with a large list cut on the horizon, expect some unseen names given a run late in the season to see if they can show some signs.
Collingwood’s big name players are beginning to hit peak form. Scott Pendlebury stepped it up against Adelaide. In arguably his best game for Collingwood, he produced 42 disposals and two goals. Travis Cloke continued his outstanding form with another 7 shots on goal, but his kicking let him down on the night. Cloke has amazingly taken 72 marks inside 50 this season, 24 more than any other player in the competition. He will be difficult to stop.
The Pies are on the rise and will account for the struggling Gold Coast easily.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 40 POINTS
ST KILDA ($2.15) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($1.70)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 20/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Port 13.11 (89) defeated St Kilda 13.7 (85) at AAMI, R1, 2012
Line: St Kilda +5.5, Port -5.5
We have a second consecutive game of clubs heading in completely different directions. The Saints are probably a little further behind than most, but still have the elder stars to have an important impact on the game. It certainly has tougher times ahead, but at this stage, it must continue to give the competing teams a good challenge. Port Adelaide is the perfect team to be competitive against with a win having a major impact on the final eight. Justin Koschitzke faces a tight task to get to an earned 200th game after a calf injury has been diagnosed as needing a 3-4 week recovery. I think most football people will be hoping he gets across the line.
The Power has got through its tough month unscathed and more important hold a one win gap in 8th position. It must now continue the form showed against Sydney, Collingwood and Essendon by defeating the clubs below it on the ladder. St Kilda is one of those clubs, but as the odds suggest, most are expecting a tight contest. I think Port Adelaide deserve greater respect than that as the key performance indicators are holding up against all opposition. Kane Cornes is an important loss due to suspension, but Justin Westhoff returns.
Port Adelaide is great value here. I’m particularly interested in the -5.5 point line.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($4.30) VS BRISBANE ($1.21)
AT TIO STADIUM DARWIN, SATURDAY 20/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Brisbane 17.20 (122) defeated Melbourne 14.10 (94) at the GABBA, R5, 2013
Line: Melbourne +29.5, Brisbane -29.5
The TIO Stadium matches in Darwin are generally difficult to predict as there are so many different factors to consider than the usual southern state fixtures. The humidity and sweat makes the ball and surface slippery, while the heat affects certain players differently. The conditions usually even a game out, but you’d expect in this situation that Brisbane should be favoured.
The Demons have shown constant improvement over the watch of Neil Craig, but the Geelong game produced some all new lows. Melbourne could only enter its forward 50 19 times, the lowest tally since the statistic has been recorded, while the inside 50 differential was +51 in Geelong’s favour, also a new record. Ultimately, the conditions and margin flattered them, but the stats told an ugly truth.
Michael Voss’ job looks as good as saved. Another come from behind victory has seen Brisbane get to within 2 wins and percentage from the eight. The Lions will need to win nearly all its games at good margins to be a real threat for September action, but while it is mathematically possible, it may as well keep the dream alive.
The Lions must keep winning and will do so against Melbourne.
BRISBANE TO WIN BY 33 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.92) VS FREMANTLE ($1.92)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 21/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 12.9 (81) defeated Richmond 12.8 (80) at Patersons, R5, 2013
Line: Richmond +2.5, Fremantle -2.5
This is unrivalled as match of the round in my opinion. If the round 5 encounter is anything to go by, this is going to be a beauty. It is also the most defining ladder shaping game of the round, with losses to either side holding consequences.
Richmond and its supporters will be relieved to have finally ended its association with Cairns’ Cazaly Stadium. The Tigers had been the only side to have never beaten Gold Coast after all encounters had been played at the venue. The decision of winning a quick dollar was becoming more regretful with every replay of Karmichael Hunt’s goal after the siren. Thankfully for Damien Hardwick, the third and final commitment to Cairns caused no harm. Bachar Houli will return from a hamstring complaint.
Fremantle got another Derby victory under its belt, but the win did come at a cost. After missing a large chunk of the season with injury, Matthew Pavlich has suffered the full wrath of the MRP and will miss 3 weeks for a bump on Mitch Brown. Hayden Ballantyne will miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring, while Clancee Pearce will be assessed with concussion. On top of Luke McPharlin, that is a fair chunk of quality to replace.
The Dockers were close to $2.00 at the start of the week and then shortened to $1.83. They have since steadied to $1.92 and look great value at that price despite the outs.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($4.30) VS GEELONG ($1.21)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SUNDAY 21/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Geelong 15.12 (102) defeated Adelaide 11.9 (75) at Skilled, R18, 2012
Line: Adelaide +28.5, Geelong -28.5
Unfortunately, this game has been soured by the news that each clubs best player, Patrick Dangerfield and Steve Johnson, are unavailable due to injury and suspension respectively.
Adelaide’s finals ambitions are as good as gone now it is 2 wins and percentage outside of the 8. As mentioned already, the injury of Patrick Dangerfield isn’t going to make the situation any better. The club has listed him as a bizarre 1-4 weeks, but you’d expect he wouldn’t be risked now that Adelaide’s fate is as good as sealed.
The Cats have been a new side since the Brisbane capitulation. Chris Scott has put an emphasis on defence and contested ball for the last 3 weeks and the results have been emphatic. Geelong has conceded only 146 points against Fremantle, Hawthorn and Melbourne since that dark day. The weaknesses were plain for all to see and are now being rectified. Steve Johnson misses another game through suspension, which is surely an issue that needs to be looked into before it hurts again like last year’s elimination final. Corey Enright, Mathew Stokes, Nathan Vardy and Joel Corey will all return.
The Crows have been struggling for midfield depth all year, so the loss of Dangerfield hurts immensely. Geelong should cruise to victory.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
WEST COAST ($2.65) VS SYDNEY ($1.48)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 21/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Sydney 18.13 (121) defeated West Coast 10.9 (69) at Patersons, R16, 2012
Line: West Coast +13.5, Sydney -13.5
This was the rivalry of the 2000s, with 6 games from the 2005 Qualifying Final to Round 1 2007 all decided by less than a goal. Since 2008 that rivalry has become a Sydney domination, with the last 6 encounters all won by the Swans.
West Coast missed its chance of a top 8 position last week as Fremantle stormed away in the last quarter for a comfortable win. The good news for the Eagles is that their finals chances are still alive, but they desperately need a win against Sydney to keep in touch with Port Adelaide. John Worsfold is looking like regaining a long list of players including Beau Waters, Luke Shuey, Sharrod Wellingham, Daniel Kerr and Sam Butler over the coming weeks.
The Swans had a day out against GWS with a 129 point thumping. The scary thing about the result is that it could have been a lot worse! The Swans had the most scoring shots in a match since 1995, kicked 27 behinds, plucked 31 inside 50 marks and entered the forward arc 77 times. It was as one sided as it gets. Ben McGylnn had a horrible day, copping a 3 week suspension and sustaining a hamstring injury.
The Swans have a great recent record against West Coast, especially at Patersons where they haven’t been beaten since 2007. The -13.5 line deserves consideration.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
