Welcome to The Profits round 17 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Geelong Cats ($2.00) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.80) – Etihad Stadium, Friday July 20, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Essendon 18.7 (115) d Geelong 16.15 (111), round 15, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: After the Cats’ loss last week to the Magpies there are a number of teams snapping at their heels to take over their ladder position. If ever Geelong needed a win to rally and make sure of an appearance in the finals then this is that game. For a tipster it’s a nightmare selection as you would not expect a big winning margin. If you are well down in the tipping then pick a draw if the value of the draw is 3 points. A draw is possible.
Bombers by 5
Line: Bombers – 3.5
Collingwood Magpies ($1.95) vs Hawthorn ($1.85) – MCG, Saturday, July 21, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Hawthorn 20.17 (137) d Collingwood 16.19 (115), round one, 2012, at the MCG
Game preview: This match is possibly the game of the round and the Pies need to reverse the result of the last game just in case these two teams meet in the GF. Another Hawthorn win over Collingwood sets them up as psychological winners just like Geelong was last year over the Pies and we know the result of that in the Grand Final. Winning form is good form and both sides have it. Collingwood has got some players back and Simon Buckley out is only a bonus. This is the testing material for the Hawks who have had an easy run for the last ten weeks. We have gone with the Hawks as they are the team to beat right now and the Pies with a full strength team last week were poor in terms of converting inside 50 and allowing the Cats to have more shots on goal. Expect a cracker of a game!
Hawks by 9
Line: Hawks – 1.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.50) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.60) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday July 21, 1.40pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 22.13 (145) defeated Adelaide 7.8 (50) round 24, 2011 at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: Arguably match of the round! Here’s another great contest as both these teams have been hovering in the top 4 all season so far. Despite injuries to key players it seems the Eagles have found the depth to remain an elite team in the competition. Adelaide, so far, has seemed a little suspect against the top teams like West Coast and Collingwood so it will be interesting to see how they manage this game. The home ground is a huge advantage to the Crows. Expect a tight contest with this game going down to the wire!
Eagles by 4
Line: Eagles +14.5
Gold Coast Suns ($3.20) vs Brisbane Lions ($1.35) – Metricon Stadium, Saturday July 21, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: Brisbane Lions 17.9 (111) d Gold Coast 6.10 (46), round 4, 2012, at the Gabba
Game preview: Tipsters will have to give the Suns a bit of a chance in this match against the Lions but I doubt whether defacing opposition player posters and niggling each other behind the scenes pre-match will make a lot of difference. Gold Coast cracked the champagne last week against Richmond and it would be nice to see them put 2 consecutive wins together. You’re dreaming. If the Lions haven’t put last week’s disappointing loss to St Kilda behind them then they will lose.
Lions by 26
Line: Lions -22.5
Western Bulldogs ($3.00) vs Carlton Blues ($1.38) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday July 21, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Western Bulldogs 14.12 (96) d Carlton 9.15 (69), round 16, 2011 at the MCG
Game preview: The Bulldogs have won their past two games against Carlton, we might see some chicken feathers fly in this game. The Blues have had their wings clipped even further with the loss of Judd after a 4 week suspension by the tribunal. Dual Brownlow winner – unsportsmanlike?? Really? Cooney, the Bulldogs’ Brownlow winner and Judd, both missing for this game. I think Carlton is a little too depleted going into this game that might just give Dogs the edge they need for victory.
Bulldogs by 12
Line: Bulldogs +17.5
Melbourne Demons ($2.30) vs Port Adelaide Power ($1.62) – TIO Stadium, Saturday July 21, 7.10pm
Recent clashes: Port Adelaide 17.12 (112) defeated Melbourne 15.14 (104), round 24, 2011 at Adelaide Oval
Game preview: The Power and Demons have endured ordinary seasons and it doesn’t look like it will get much better in the short term. Apart from pride and giving the players some experience there is not a lot more hanging on this game. Neither team will make the finals and both teams are having poor seasons as they try to rebuild. Tipsters will like the Demons chances a bit better than those of the Power who are struggling to put together a full game.
Demons by 10
Line: Demons +8.5
Sydney Swans ($1.35) vs St Kilda Saints ($3.15) – SCG, Sunday, June 22, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: St Kilda 16.15 (111) d Sydney Swans 12.11 (83), round nine, 2012 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: Swans thumped the Eagles by 52 points, and are now riding a six-game winning streak. This is certainly an important match for the Saints who have scratched and scraped enough wins now to see them nestled in the 8, not safe, but there. And what about Sydney? Did many experts predict they would be on top of the ladder so late in the season and be considered as a serious premiership contender? They upset the Eagles last week and it’s hard to see them allow a much lesser team like the Saints burst that bubble.
Swans by 26
Line: Swans -18.5
Richmond Tigers ($2.20) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.67) – MCG, Sunday, July 22, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: North Melbourne 15.14 (104) d Richmond 13.13 (91), round 24, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: We watch our football every week, make judgements, predictions about some teams and see the Tigers poised to make the 8 then they go and get beaten by Gold Coast in the last kick of the day! Heartbreaking for the fans as well as the players and as a result Richmond must win at least 5 of its next 7 games to be genuine finals contenders – a big ask. North is playing good footy with some strong wins against more favoured opposition. They won’t let go a golden opportunity to play finals and in this game they will kill all Tiger hopes.
Kangaroos by 32
Line: Kangaroos -5.5
Freemantle Dockers ($1.01) vs Greater Western Sydney ($17.00) – Patersons Stadium, Sunday July 22, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: First Meeting
Game preview: The Giants are interpreting their name to mean “getting beaten by giant margins” rather than being giant killers. Losing margins of over 100 points in the last two games is not a good sign for them as a team but a darn good one for tipsters who can confidently mark down a point for a Fremantle win and a welcome percentage boost.
Dockers by 93
Line: Dockers -78.5
Betting
BEST BET: Kangaroos -5.5 at 1.92
Bulldogs +29.5 at $1.50
Lions -16.5 at $1.60
Demons -10.5 at $2.95
