Welcome to the Round 16 AFL Preview. Round 15 produced the highest single round attendance of all time with 371,212 fans displaying their support throughout the weekend. It isn’t a surprise to see a record figure with so many ladder shaping games on show. Collingwood and West Coast were the big winners of the round by both defeating rivals that were fighting for similarly respective territory. Collingwood has managed to hold a two game gap from West Coast at ninth, who are now only one game outside the eight. Carlton and Adelaide now have a colossus task to see September action.
Round 16 certainly doesn’t hold the interest of last week, but there are games that will have some well backed clubs feeling a tad nervous. Most of the matches have fairly short priced favourites, so you’ll have to look deep for genuine value.
Best Bets
North Melbourne @ -14.5 line
Fremantle @ -8.5 line.
COLLINGWOOD ($1.19) VS ADELAIDE ($4.75)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 12/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Collingwood 10.15 (75) defeated Adelaide 6.13 (49) at AAMI, R9, 2012
Line: Collingwood -28.5, Adelaide +28.5
A brilliant victory against arch rival Carlton has been overshadowed by the constant media attention of Harry O’Brien’s personal life. The highly publicised spat with Nathan Buckley saw O’Brien retreat to Sydney for some time to clear his head before returning and informing the media of the demons he has to deal with every day. Mental illness is a serious condition that mustn’t be ignored and treated correctly, but that doesn’t mean it is an excuse to behave inappropriately and not be accountable for one’s actions. Buckley needed to declare his authority as a leader of the organisation to ensure such distractions weren’t harmful to the functioning of the club. He did so admirably and with the required sensitivity. O’Brien won’t be available for this game but is expected to return Round 17. Reigning best and fairest winner Dayne Beams will finally play his first game of the season.
If Adelaide’s season isn’t already gone, it will be if it can’t produce a win on Saturday night. It might be time for Brenton Sanderson to take a gamble and introduce some youth to his team. It couldn’t be any worse than what is being produced at the moment.
Collingwood have won the last 5 games against the Crows and should be able to make that 6 relatively comfortably.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
PORT ADELAIDE ($4.40) VS HAWTHORN ($1.21)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Hawthorn 24.15 (159) defeated Port 13.9 (87) at AAMI Stadium, R20, 2012
Line: Port +25.5, Hawthorn -25.5
Port Adelaide is nearly at the end of a horribly tough month that has produced some spectacular results. If the Power can hold its top 8 spot after playing Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn, Ken Hickley would be ecstatic. A competitive performance against Hawthorn will see much needed confidence against St Kilda, Brisbane and Adelaide in the coming weeks. Playing the premiership favourite is a daunting prospect, but you get the feeling that the Power believe it has a genuine chance of knocking off Hawthorn. Justin Westhoff will miss to suspension after a brain fade hit.
The Hawks will still be hurting after an 11th consecutive loss to Geelong. The mental strength of this squad must be questioned, especially against the top teams. Hawthorn had its second lowest kicking efficiency since the statistic was first recorded in 1999 last week, the lowest being its Grand Final performance last year. The polish of Grant Birchall and Brent Guerra is being missed. There was no way that Clarkson would overlook Guerra again this week. The response is going to be interesting as you’d expect they’d want to make an early statement.
I’d be shocked if the Hawks had consecutive losses, but I’m not completely ruling the Power out here. The first quarter will be defining.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.001) VS MELBOURNE ($21.00)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Geelong 17.17 (119) defeated Melbourne 11.10 (76) at Simonds, R6, 2012
Line: Geelong -67.5, Melbourne +67.5
Geelong lengthened the Kennett Curse to 11 consecutive wins and has now put itself in a perfect position to get bring back some under done stars and condition them to be primed for September. Travis Varcoe made his return through the VFL last week and will take on the Demons. Paul Chapman is at least a couple of weeks away from resuming. Jared Rivers will again play in the VFL and like Chapman is seen as a key ingredient to the best 22 for a premiership tilt. The loss to Brisbane has proven to be a required reality check for most at the club and it couldn’t have responded better against two genuine premiership threats. Steve Johnson returns from suspension while Enright, Corey and Christensen will be rested.
Melbourne continues to show improvement under the guidance of Neil Craig. The beltings seem to have disappeared for the time being and the players are playing with more confidence. Jack Fitzpatrick is beginning to put together some encouraging performances after being on the senior list for a few years. His pace for a man 200cm tall is elite and finally looks to be developing under the new structure.
Geelong has only lost to Melbourne once since 1988 at Simonds Stadium. That record won’t change.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 74 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.23) VS GOLD COAST ($4.15)
AT CAZALYS STADIUM CAIRNS, SATURDAY 13/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Gold Coast 13.12 (90) defeated Richmond 13.10 (88) at Cazalys, R16, 2012
Line: Richmond -24.5, Gold Coast +24.5
This will be an extremely testing time for Richmond. The last thing Damien Hardwick would have wanted was an insipid performance against a team like North Melbourne before its bogey encounter against Gold Coast. A lot of the Tigers members wanted to see this sold game scrapped after losing the first two games against the Suns at Cairns. At the end of the day, a side with finals ambitions should be beating an expansion club anywhere. The Richmond administration will be ensuring that the “f” word isn’t mentioned between now and September after the cheer squad banner made a poorly timed reference to the subject against North Melbourne. Ivan Maric will be welcomed back to the 22.
The main question about the Suns is whether Gary Ablett is going to play. If he is unavailable like against the Lions, its unbeaten run against Richmond is more than likely to end. You could tell that the confidence was down without the champ against Brisbane. The contested ball, disposals and clearances were all significantly down on the season averages in the absence of Ablett.
The inclusion of Ablett and the past Cazalys Stadium record is sure to be on the mind of both teams. It will be tight again, but surely Richmond has learnt from previous mistakes. The +24.5 line is of small interest.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
CARLTON ($1.38) VS ST KILDA ($3.00)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: St Kilda 11.11 (77) defeated Carlton 9.14 (68) at Etihad, R7, 2013
Line: Carlton -18.5, St Kilda +18.5
This encounter is beginning to develop into a bit of a hoodoo for Carlton. Since Round 24 in 2011, these teams have met four times and St Kilda has won them all despite being the underdog. Mick Malthouse has a lot of work to do to turn the fortunes of his team around quickly, especially considering Jarrad Waite has been ruled out for Saturday night. The Waite injury is what turned the game for Carlton against Collingwood, but Ben Reid going straight forward meant it was as good as a double blow. If Carlton loses, the finals dream will have to be conceded.
The undermanned St Kilda side were surprisingly competitive against Fremantle in Perth. It led up to half time before the Dockers ran away with a comfortable victory in the second half. Captain Nick Riewoldt and the charged Stephen Milne both return to the line up and are obviously enormous inclusions to the forward half.
The Saints will be up and about to make it 5 wins in a row against Carlton. It matches up well, especially at Etihad Stadium. My only doubt is that the Saints are far more exposed playing these kids.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
BRISBANE ($2.75) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.45)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 13/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: North 18.17 (125) defeated Brisbane 9.8 (62) at Etihad, R4, 2013
Line: Brisbane +14.5, North -14.5
It is big month coming up for the Brisbane Lions and especially Michael Voss. Games against North, Melbourne, Port and St Kilda are all seen as winnable, but a couple of bad results could spell the end for Voss. It wouldn’t surprise if it ended either 9-9 or 5-13 after that run. Simon Black and Brent Moloney will both be unavailable for this game, putting added pressure on the likes of Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich to perform in the centre. While Brisbane’s cleranace rates have improved dramatically of late, the depth of the rotations is sure to be tested.
North Melbourne easily produced its best performance of the year against Richmond. It was only the second current top 8 side the Kangaroos had beaten this season (the other being Port) and the ball movement appeared good enough to match it with any team. Now that is probably the most frustrating thing about North Melbourne, where has that form been all year? It is only two games outside the 8 and has a great percentage of 118.6. Can it make a late September charge?
North Melbourne should be far too strong for Brisbane if it can replicate anything like it produced against Richmond. The -14.5 North line looks brilliant value with Brisbane lacking midfield depth.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.001) VS GWS ($21.00)
AT THE SCG, SUNDAY 14/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Sydney 16.10 (106) defeated GWS 11.10 (76) at ANZ, R1, 2013
Line: Sydney -75.5, GWS +75.5
The Battle of the Bridge (as the AFL likes to call it) hasn’t quite managed to live up to the standards of a usual local derby. It will eventually once the GWS youngsters start to mature, but that appears a lot further off than it really is at this stage in time.
Sydney finally got to enjoy a game that wasn’t washed away by Mother Nature. It was probably looking for a more convincing result against Melbourne to keep the percentage out of touch from Fremantle, but the Swans get another opportunity to build on that the against lowly GWS. Sam Reid has had a reoccurrence of the quad injury that has seen him miss so many games this year and will be absent once again.
The Giants were so very close to its first win of the season against the Western Bulldogs. That lack of experience of knowing how to close out a game was plain for all to see. Every improvement is a step in the right direction, so it is difficult and unfair to be critical.
The Swans will win in a gallop.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 69 POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS ($6.75) VS ESSENDON ($1.10)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 14/07, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Essendon 21.14 (140) defeated Dogs 8.8 (56) at Etihad, R14, 2012
Line: Dogs +39.5, Essendon -39.5
The Western Bulldogs got the fright of its life on Saturday afternoon at Canberra against GWS. It was the experience of Daniel Giansiracusa who kicked the sealer from outside 50 late in the final quarter. Brendan McCartney was lucky to get the desired result as the media wolves would have been waiting outside his Whitten Oval office on the Monday morning had the Dogs lost. Jason Johannisen has been a big improver throughout the year and will be a significant loss after coming off second best from a heavy Jeremy Cameron bump.
Essendon just keep on winning. It is now on a 4 game streak and continues to hold a top 3 spot from Sydney and Fremantle. Unfortunately it will have to battle through the next 4-6 weeks without its skipper Jobe Watson. He has sustained a broken collarbone and his absence will have a carry on effect to Brent Stanton and Brendon Goddard in particular.
Watson is impossible to replace, but the Bombers have an average winning margin of 62.66 points over the last three encounters.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 48 POINTS
WEST COAST ($2.45) VS FREMANTLE ($1.55)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 14/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 16.12 (108) defeated West Coast 11.14 (80) at Patersons, R1, 2013
Line: West Coast +8.5, Fremantle -8.5
West Coast has managed to keep its finals hopes alive with a last minute win away against Adelaide. Josh Kennedy kicked the winner on the left foot to continue his outstanding season. But this can’t be a West Coast write up without discussing new injury worries. Surprise, surprise, Beau Waters has once again succumbed to injury, this time a knee and will miss 3 weeks. Brad Sheppard was knocked out from the ugly looking Shaun McKernan stray elbow and will be rested.
Fremantle would have been pleased to see Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow and David Mundy all get through unscathed against St Kilda. All except and understandably Sandilands preformed well. The Dockers have been convincing against West Coast for the last two encounters and that would be mainly due to the Ross Lyon implementations. The Eagles are generally a free scoring team (averaging 100 points a game this season), but have been restricted to only 48 and 80 points in the two Derbies over the last 12 months. Luke McPharlin is an important loss as he would have been the most likely candidate to take on the all conquering Josh Kennedy.
The Dockers look great value here. While the Derbies can be different games of football, the form just doesn’t justify an 8.5 point line. Get on board.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
