Welcome to the round 15 AFL preview. This week brings a group of genuinely exciting games highlighted by the Carlton vs Collingwood and Geelong vs Hawthorn blockbusters. The Friday night game in particular has extremely high stakes as it will determine either a one or three game gap between the two heavy weights vying for the same top 8 position.
Port Adelaide has really shaken the bottom half of the top 8 up. Consecutive shock victories against Sydney and Collingwood have the Power in a strong position to snatch a September berth. Port Adelaide’s success has been horrible viewing for Carlton and West Coast. Both clubs now sit 2 games outside the 8 and must continuously win, as well as rely on other results, to give themselves any chance of participating in the finals.
The two blockbusters, Brisbane vs Gold Coast and Adelaide vs West Coast are all offering interesting odds. Round 15 is jam packed with encounters that will shape the ladder and there is plenty value on top.
Best Bets
Carlton @ $1.70 (through the Sportsbet 20 point or less refund)
Geelong @ $2.15 (through the Sportsbet 20 point or less refund)
CARLTON ($1.70) vs COLLINGWOOD ($2.20)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 05/07, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Collingwood 17.15 (117) defeated Carlton 15.10 (100) at the MCG, R2, 2013
Line: Carlton -3.5, Collingwood +3.5
This is your classic eight point game. A Carlton victory will see the race for September open right up, while a Collingwood win creates daylight between the top 8 and the rest. The ramifications are as high as you can imagine at this point of the season. The result could be the difference between an Elimination Final or not.
Mick Malthouse has a big job on his hands to get his newly adopted club to the finals. The Blues loss against Sydney last week was its biggest for the season, proof that it has been competitive against every team it has played. Despite being close many times, Carlton hasn’t been able to beat any club of significance. This is the time for the Blues to produce. Andrew Carrazzo got through unscathed in the VFL, while Marc Murphy has made an unbelievable recovery from a broken cheekbone and will return for the Collingwood clash.
Collingwood are in a concerning form slump. While Port Adelaide have put together some impressive performances, the Pies efforts were completely unacceptable. Nathan Buckley’s men were murdered in the contested possessions and clearances, which is a problem that needs to be fixed as soon as possible. Injury has hit the Pies hard though with Jolly, O’Brien and Lynch all confirmed out with injury. Andrew Krakouer and Clinton Young produced admiral VFL performances and will be back for Friday night along with Ben Reid.
Carlton has only beaten one side above it on the ladder this year, but Collingwood are severely undermanned. Sportsbet are offering a refund special if your backed team loses by 20 or less points for this game. Considering Carlton’s biggest loss has been 22 points, this looks like a free hit at odds of $1.70.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
GWS ($3.90) vs WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.22)
AT MANUKA OVAL, SATURDAY 06/07, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Dogs 15.14 (104) defeated GWS 9.8 (62) at Manuka, R5, 2012
Line: GWS +29.5, Dogs -29.5
What was up with the Dogs last week? Have the Demons really improved that much under the guidance of Neil Craig? Were the Dogs just expecting the predicted result to happen and became complacent? Either way Brendan McCartney would have been bitterly disappointed. Unfortunately, it took the Western Bulldogs until the 15 minute mark of the last quarter (when it was down by 44 points) to understand the seriousness of the situation before it came home with a wet sail. Melbourne’s pressure was impressive, but I think the Dogs real form came into effect in those final moments. Captain Matthew Boyd’s injury interrupted season has continued, this time a fractured cheekbone keeping him out for the next 4 weeks.
GWS produced perhaps the most bizarre moment of the round, pushing 11 players behind the ball at the start of the second half. Were Kevin Sheedy and Leon Cameron protecting their players from another triple figure drubbing? For a club that has always stated it won’t use defensive techniques and determent the development of its youngsters, Sunday’s game plan must be questioned. Jeremy Cameron will return.
The Dogs will be too strong. The -29.5 line is tempting.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 45 POINTS
NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.75) vs RICHMOND ($1.45)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 06/07, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: North 15.13 (103) defeated Richmond 14.15 (99) at the MCG, R17, 2012
Line: North +15.5, Richmond -15.5
This is North Melbourne’s very last chance for a final tilt at a top 8 berth. Lose this and it is curtains. The Roos needed a confidence boost and got it against the Giants with an 8 goal first quarter. It only managed another 11 goals for the game after GWS pushed numbers backed, but it should have been enough to comfort some fragile minds. The major talking point from the game was the brain fade from Lindsay Thomas that has cost him a 2 week suspension. The head butt to Jacob Townsend was low impact and certainly didn’t cause injury, but it looked bad and was unnecessary. With such important games coming up, Brad Scott would be furious that his best goal kicker is unavailable.
Another week, another impressive Richmond outing. The most pleasing thing for the Tigers was the return to form of Trent Cotchin. There are rumours he is carrying a small niggle, so he may be managed to be in peak form a couple of weeks out from finals. The form of up and comers Reece Conca and Brandon Ellis has created fantastic depth throughout the best 22. Daniel Jackson is in career best form, while Aaron Edwards is starting to have an impact at his new club.
The Tigers just aren’t losing to teams lower on the ladder. That trend will continue.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 21 POINTS
BRISBANE ($1.46) vs GOLD COAST ($2.65)
AT THE GABBA, SATURDAY 06/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Brisbane 13.16 (94) defeated Gold Coast 13.14 (92) at Metricon, R3, 2013
Line: Brisbane -14.5, Gold Coast +14.5
It is hard to believe that we are already up to Q-Clash number 6. This is potentially the tightest of the encounters so far based on form and momentum. Both clubs are coming off humbling losses and would be determined to get the points against its arch rival.
After the miraculous win against Geelong, a downer against top of the table Hawthorn was always on the cards. The Lions were probably more competitive against last year’s grand finalist than the scoreboard gave credit. It won the clearances 44-37 and broke even for inside 50s with 56 a piece. The strength of Hawthorn’s forward line comprising Roughead, Franklin, Gunston and Hale was too much, taking 16 marks inside 50 to 5. Daniel Merrett was missed and will be an important inclusion this week after recovering from a groin injury.
Gold Coast had their chances against Adelaide and was another victim of the inconsistent review system. Their form continues to hold up and it must keep defeating the lower ranked clubs. Guy McKenna will be pleased to have Harley Bennell back.
I’m finding it extremely difficult to split these two. Brisbane has won the last 4 Q-Clashes, but the Suns came so close in Round 3. I’m tipping the Suns with low confidence, but I really like the look of its +14.5 line.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 2 POINTS
GEELONG ($2.15) vs HAWTHORN ($1.70)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 06/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Geelong 13.15 (93) defeated Hawthorn 12.14 (86) at the MCG, R1, 2013
Line: Geelong +6.5, Hawthorn -6.5
The fact that this match is a top of the table clash has nearly been lost in the ongoing fascination of the Kennett Curse. Both clubs continue to deny that the comments of Jeff Kennett have had any influence on the results, but 10 consecutive wins to the Cats since the 2008 Grand Final must count for something.
The Cats responded to the Brisbane capitulation as well as it possible could have. It basically beat Fremantle at its own game. Geelong produced one of the most impressive statistics for the season, setting a new contested possession differential record with 62 more than Fremantle. In fact, the Dockers could only manage 7 inside 50s for the second half. It appears the Brisbane loss has given Geelong the wakeup call it required. Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman are key exclusions who always lift against Hawthorn.
The Hawks are flying. It is on a 12 week winning streak and sitting a game clear and percentage on top of the ladder. The premiership favourite must now break its 5 year affliction against Geelong. Cyril Rioli has been named to return, while Paul Puopolo is also ready to go.
It is another extremely tough game to tip. Thankfully Sportsbet have implemented its 20 point or less refund special to this match as well. Of the 10 Geelong wins, 9 have been under 20 points and 8 under 10 points. It is an amazing set of results and perfectly suited to the Sportsbet special. I do think the curse will continue, albeit with low confidence, but Geelong’s $2.15 odds are great value with the refund.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 4 POINTS
ADELAIDE ($1.70) vs WEST COAST ($2.15)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 06/07, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Adelaide 19.10 (124) defeated West Coast 11.9 (75) at AAMI, R17, 2012
Line: Adelaide -5.5, West Coast +5.5
This is another extremely important game, as the loser is expected to be out of the finals race. Making up a three win gap with only 8 games remaining is a monumental task. These two teams have both gone deep into September over recent years and to have their seasons as good as over by Round 15 would be an embarrassment.
Adelaide would be pleased to have broken a disappointing run of 3 losses against quality opposition in Fremantle, Sydney and Richmond. A loss against Gold Coast would have been hard to take for Brenton Sanderson and the Adelaide Advertiser would have been ruthless had it occurred. Brent Reilly’s luckless season has continued after being dropped earlier in the month, he has now sustained a shoulder injury and will be unavailable.
West Coast has put together consecutive competitive performances against two top 4 teams. It has certainly looked like a team that is slowly building to its best form. Unfortunately, its still the injuries that will have the experts asking questions. Hurn and Scott Selwood are long term, while Luke Shuey and Daniel Kerr are both out for the Saturday night clash.
It will be tight, but I like West Coast here. They are far superior at the stoppages and it is hard to imagine any of Adelaide’s available tall forwards having an influence on either Glass or Mackenzie. Consider the $2.15 head to head.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 7 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($15.00) vs SYDNEY ($1.02)
AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 07/07, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Sydney 21.12 (138) defeated Melbourne 5.7 (37) at the SCG, R8, 2012
Line: Melbourne +59.5, Sydney -59.5
Melbourne was the big winner with Port Adelaide for Round 14. However, it almost capitulated and nearly gave up a 44 point lead at the 15 minute mark of the last quarter. Neil Craig has actualised a slightly different game plan based on pressure and the players seem to be enjoying themselves. Jack Watts in particular has thrived with a more permanent forward role, which is what saw him get drafted as the number one pick in the first place. Co-captain Jack Grimes returns from an extended break on the sidelines.
Sydney responded to the Port Adelaide loss with a workman like effort in awfully wet conditions against Carlton at the SCG. It was challenged late and did what it needed to do. Kurt Tippett has been influential in his first two games in Swans colours, but will be looking forward to some dry matches. It has been confirmed that Adam Goodes will miss a minimum of six weeks with the knee injury he sustained against Port Adelaide after having surgery. Sam Reid and Shane Mumford are back in the lineup.
Melbourne was impressive against the Western Bulldogs last week, but competing with the reigning premier will be a completely different story. Kurt Tippett could have a day out.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 63 POINTS
FREMANTLE ($1.04) vs ST KILDA ($10.00)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SUNDAY 07/07, 15:15
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 14.8 (92) defeated St Kilda 11.13 (79) at Etihad, R4, 2012
Line: Fremantle -48.5, St Kilda +48.5
Even though the Dockers were missing four of its top 5 players, the effort against Geelong would have had Ross Lyon scratching his head. The second half was a disaster, with the third quarter only yielding 1 inside 50 and the midfield were destroyed in the contested possessions. The Dockers are used to squeezing its opposition dry, but it would have never expected to be suffocated by similar tactics. The major positive for Fremantle is that Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow, David Mundy and Lee Spurr will all return to the lineup. Pavlich and Sandilands have had extended breaks and will need time to find touch, but their presence is sure to be a lift.
St Kilda was extremely disappointing against Richmond. It conceded 70 inside 50s and 22 marks once the ball entered the arc. At the same time, the Saints were only able to enter its forward 50 31 times. The margin could have been even worse. Nick Riewoldt is out with soreness while Justin Koschitzke has been rested so he can play his 200th game in Melbourne. Lenny Hayes is a welcomed inclusion.
The 5 massive inclusions will see the Dockers have a comprehensive win.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 61 POINTS
ESSENDON ($1.27) vs PORT ADELAIDE ($3.75)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 07/07, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Essendon 19.13 (127) defeated Port 11.11 (77) at AAMI, R16, 2012
Line: Essendon -24.5, Port +24.5
Essendon are still the talk of the town a week after Jobe Watson admitted to being injected with an apparent banned substance. Whether you are with or against the Bombers in regards to the drawn out saga, you can’t help but admire the mental strength of this team to back itself in any situation. The injury list continues to be barely existent, but Stewart Crameri hasn’t been able to get up in time after suffering an ankle injury in Perth. Dustin Fletcher returns to the 22.
Who would have thought that Port Adelaide could amass all 8 premiership points against Sydney and Collingwood? It has turned the bottom half of the 8 on its head and put immense pressure on Collingwood, Carlton, West Coast and Adelaide. If they can steal another win from either Essendon or Hawthorn, a September berth is as good as certain. Former captain Dom Cassisi is the only player of significance that will miss after pulling a hamstring last week and being subbed off.
Surely Port Adelaide can’t pull off a third consecutive upset? Unless the Bombers have an off day like against Brisbane, I can’t see the Power being a realistic chance.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 34 POINTS
