Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Team with the BYE
St Kilda Saints
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.60) vs Essendon Bombers ($2.35) – Friday 7:40pm AEST
Ladder position: Hawthorn 4th Essendon 8th
Hawthorn are averaging 43 more disposals per game than Essendon with 23 more kicks and 21 more handballs.
Hawks are also averaging 30 more marks per match. Hawks average one more scoring shot per game than the Dons while the dons average 3 more hitouts and 2 more tackles per game.
Essendon have been more effective with the ball scoring a goal every 24 disposals compared to Hawks 27.
Key game changes
No Lance Franklin or Roughead up forward (kicked more than 1/4 of the teams points this year) for Hawks with Ladson also out. Guerra and Bateman are handy ins.
Crameri, Hardingham and Hooker are all big outs with Welsh, Hille and Davey slotting back into the Dons lineup.
Who will win?
Hawthorn have too much leg speed and skill in the midfield. Essendon have LOST their last 4 games toNorth Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne and Richmond compared to Hawks last 5 when they have beat Sydney by 46, Bulldogs by 39, Fremantle by 22, lost to Cats by 5 and beating Gold Coast by over 60. It will still be a closer game than you think with Essendon games always being high scoring and the lack of Franklin/Roughead up front.
Note that Essendon average 101 points per game (Only scored 77 and 79 against Pies and Blues)
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Hawks 84% Dons 16%
Hawthorn by 25 points
Betting Option
Hawthorn 1-39 at $2.32
Gold Coast Suns ($5.50) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.15) – Saturday 2:10 AEST
Ladder position: Gold Coast 17th Western Bulldogs 13th
A closer game than the odds suggest.
Dogs are averaging 16 more kicks and 9 more handballs per game than Gold Coast. Dogs also are taking 7 more Marks per game, making 5 more tackles and getting 4 more hitouts. Both teams are poor in the next stats: Disposals per goal with Dogs averaging 29 disposals per goal compared to Gold Coasts 33.5
Doggies won their last game by 30 points, went close to Saints with a injured squad missing a few key players while Gold Coast lost their last 2 games by over 60 points.
Key game changes
Some big changes to both teams. Zach Smith (Gun) David Swallow (Gun) and Charlie Dixon(Gun) are three notable ins for Gold Coast. Unfortunately, they lose McKenzie, harris, Day and Gorringe who are all great players. Barry Hall is a handy in for Bulldogs while Liberatore and Djerrkura who were poor last week get the axe.
Who will win?
The dogs have been slowly improving the last month and you can feel Rodney Eade getting them back on track. Even when down in the first against Adelaide last week, you could see the team trying to give 110% effort, even if the skills wern’t there. They will be too good for the Suns with a few too many good outs of their team.
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Suns 12% Dogs 88%
Western Bulldogs by 35 points
Betting Option
Western Bulldogs -11.5 at $1.26
Richmond Tigers ($1.88) vs Melbourne Demons ($1.93) – Saturday 2:10 AEST
Ladder position: Richmond 10th Melbourne 9th
Melbourne have not put two wins together all year.
Melbourne is averaging 7 more kicks per game and 7 more handballs.
Melbourne are also averaging 14 more marks and 7 more hitouts per game.
Richmond are making 2 more tackles per game than Melbourne and have a much better Disposal per goal count with 24.29 compared to 27.71.
Key game changes
Jake King out due to suspension is a big lose while Melbourne gain Jamar and Gysberts who are both very handy players.
Who will win?
Richmond only just got over the line against Brisbane last week while Melbourne beat top 8 team Fremantle by 89 points.
Melbourne can be forgiven for losing to the Pies the week before while Richmond were poor against Sydney allowing 30 shots on goal to 20.
Richmond lost their previous game to Port Adelaide! While Melbourne beat Essendon by over 30 points. Form and a full team suggests Melbourne will win this.
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Tigers 71% Demons 29%
Melbourne by 27 points
Betting Option
Melbourne Demons +14.5 at $1.50
Sydney Swans ($5.50) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.15) – Saturday 7:10 AEST
Ladder position: Sydney 6th Collingwood 2nd
Pies have won the last 9 games against the Swans.
Swans are one of the lowest disposal teams in the league. What they lack in disposals they make up for on-ball pressure.
The Pies are averaging 35 more kicks and 18 more handballs per match. As you would expect from the last stat, they are also averaging 18 more Marks per game and 6 more scoring shots.
Swans have been getting the better of the hitouts with 38 on average compared to Magpies 32.
The biggest stat as always, Pies use the ball 22 times per goal compared to Swans 29.
Key game changes
Swans lose their number one ruckman in Mumford while Pies welcome back Dane Swan and Dale Thomas
Who will win?
Pies are flying and seem to always pull it out of the bag. Interestingly, their only loss this year (to number one ranked team Geelong) was coming off the bye. This game is a little different, coming up against a team who lost last week by 34 points in Sydney. The odds suggest a blow out and we agree that the Pies are too strong all around the ground for the Swans.
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Pies 95% Swans 5%
Collingwood by 40 points
Betting Option
Collingwood -24.5 at $1.53
Fremantle Dockers ($1.16) vs Brisbane Lions ($5.25) – Saturday 5:40 AWST (7:40 AEST)
Ladder position: Fremantle 7th Brisbane 15nd
Fremantle will be looking to rebound from their very poor loss to Melbourne last week.
Brisbane average 3 more kicks per game while Fremantle average 17 more handballs. Both teams average 80 marks per game while Fremantle average 6 more tackles and 1 more hitout.
Brisbane average a goal every 29.61 disposals compared to Fremantles 27.97.
Brisbane lost last week to Richmond by 31 while Fremantle lost to Melbourne by 89.
The previous game, Fremantle beat Essendon (at home) by 34 while Brisbane lost to Carlton by 61 points.
Key game changes
Many people believe this man is the best ruckman in the league. He is the most valuable player to their team for sure, Aaron Sandilands, who come sback in with Bradley, Silvagni, Palmer and Roberton to name a few good players.
Brisbane lose a few handy players to injury in Mitch Clark (Very important), Drummond, collier and Banfield while Raines and Stiller come in with a few others.
Who will win?
Fremantle have been good all year at home and the number of ins vs the large number of outs for Brisbane set this game up for a big Fremantle win.
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Dockers 95% Lions 5%
Fremantle by 32 points
Betting Option
Fremantle -19.5 at $1.44
Geelong Cats ($1.04) vs Adelaide Crows ($11.00) – Sunday 1:10 AEST
Ladder position: Geelong 1st Adelaide 14th
Geelong average 24 more kicks per game and 16 more handballs than Adelaide. Cats also average 13 more Marks and 3 more tackles. Adelaide are doing well in the hitouts with 43 per game compared to Geelongs 37.
Geelong average a goal every 26.27 disposals compared to Adelaides poor 30.59
Adelaide have lost their last 5 games by 30, 39, 47, 40 and 43
Key game changes
Still no Selwood due to ban. Corey not getting suspended (a joke and I go for the cats). Byrnes, Hawkins, Simpson, Brown, Gillies, Motlop, Christensen all named while Hunt and Stokes are both suspended. Vardy and Milburn out with soreness. Adelaide welcome back Tambling and Maric while they lose Symes with a Knee injury.
Who will win?
Geelong to extend their unbeaten run at home with ease. It will be close until half-time and Cats will kick away with it.
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Cats 98% Crows 2%
Geelong by 32 points
Betting Option
Adelaide +74.5 at $1.24 (Not recommened but the only way into this game)
Carlton Blues ($1.23) vs West Coast Eagles ($4.20) – Sunday 2:10 AEST
Ladder position: Carlton 3rd West Coast 5th
Blues are averaging 22 more kicks than the Eagles while Eagles average 2 more handballs per game.
Blues are averaging 10 more marks per game and 6 more tackles than the Eagles.
Showing their dominance around the centre clearances, the Eagles win the most hitouts in the league with an average of 52 per match compared to Carltons 41 (which is still high).
Eagles are more effective per disposal averaging a goal every 26.09 compared to Blues 26.75.
Blues have beaten Sydney by 34, Brisbane by 61, Port Adelaide by 62 and Melbourne by 47
Eagles beat Port Adelaide by 22, Adelaide by 43, Gold Coast by 18 and lost to Collingwood by 52
The teams who have gone close to beating or beat the Eagles did it through leg speed, breaking down the press.
One team successfully shut down Carlton eariler in the year with the press in Essendon, while losing 2 players during the match to still take the draw!
Key game changes
No changes to the Eagles team with Stevens, Sheppard and Mackenzie in the mix to be selected.
Duigan and Hampson are both out injured for the Blues with McLean, Warnock, ARmfield and Austin being named.
Who will win?
This is the hardest game of the round to pick. If the Eagles can successfully implement the press, it will be a game of points. If Carlton can play on after every possession of the ball and break the line, they should easily take care of the Eagles at Ethiad Stadium. We feel the recent form is swaying in the favor of Carlton as well as the money!
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Blues 90% Eagles 10%
Carlton by 28 points
Betting Option
Carlton -11.5 at $1.40
Port Adelaide Power ($2.62) vs North Melbourne ($1.49) – Sunday 4:10 CEST (4:40AEST)
Ladder position: Port Adelaide 16th North Melbourne 11th
Both teams average 200 kicks per game while the Roos average 24 more handballs per game than Port Adelaide.
Both teams average 82 marks per game and 65 tackles per game.
Roos have been getting 39 hitouts per game to Ports poor 29.
Roos have been surprisingly effective infront of goal with 26.45 disposals per goal compared to Port Adelaides 29.
Key game changes
Port Adelaide Captain, Dom Cassisi came back last game and was best on ground for the Power. Their second most important player comes back this week in Rodan with Banner and Salopek also slotting back in. Motlop is an important out for Port.. he will be missed.
McMahon is out due to his wife being Pregnant (poor planning!) while Tarrant, Richardson, Harper and McKinley have all been selected for Kangaroos.
Who will win?
Kangaroos beat a poor kicking Essendon side last week by 21 points while Port Adelaide lost to West Coast in Perth by 22.
Kangaroos have not beaten a team higher than them on the ladder while it is important to remember Port Adelaide, not at full strength, took care of Richmond who are above North on the ladder, up in Darwin. There is always at least one surprise of the ground and we feel that Port Adelaide have been playing well enough to beat the Kangaroos at home in a close game
Tipster’s Choice on AFL Tipping: Power 17% Roos 83%
Port Adelaide by 12
Betting Option
Port Adelaide +30.5 at $1.44
Betting Options in Order of Preference
Port Adelaide +30.5 at $1.44
Hawthorn 1-39 at $2.32
Collingwood -24.5 at $1.53
Fremantle -19.5 at $1.44
Carlton -11.5 at $1.40
Melbourne Demons +14.5 at $1.50
Western Bulldogs -11.5 at $1.26
Adelaide +74.5 at $1.24
Not that we suggest a mulitbet but… Multibet Price on Centrebet: $24.30
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
