Welcome to the Round 14 AFL preview. Two upset results in Round 13 have seen the top 4 turn on its head. Port Adelaide produced the first shock of the weekend by defeating the Swans on a slippery surface that would usually suit the visiting team. The Power took full advantage of the home conditions and ran away with the wind in the final quarter. Then there was the amazing Brisbane comeback against Geelong on Sunday evening. After being 52 points down at the 22 minute mark of the third quarter, Brisbane came barnstorming home in the last where Ash McGrath kicked the match winning goal after the siren in his 200th game. I doubt you’ll see another finish like it for many years.
Those two surprise results have set up some fascinating Round 14 encounters. Geelong vs Fremantle is a genuine blockbuster and will have enormous ramifications to the final shape of the top 4. West Coast vs Essendon and Sydney vs Carlton both hold important consequences to the top and bottom ends of the eight. Not only do we have some exciting games, but there looks to be a bit of value as well.
Best Bets
Essendon to win @ $1.98
Gold Coast to win @ $2.15
WEST COAST ($1.85) vs ESSENDON ($1.98)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, THURSDAY 27/06, 20:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Essendon 16.17 (113) defeated West Coast 7.10 (52) at Etihad, R7, 2012
Line: West Coast -1.5, Essendon +1.5
As I stated in the introduction, the result of this match holds large significant. West Coast are eyeing off that final spot in the eight with Carlton while the Bombers will be looking to consolidate their top 4 position.
The Eagles had a close to full strength team against Hawthorn and are finally showing some of its form from recent seasons. Unfortunately, West Coast has been dealt more injury woe. Scott Selwood has a seriously broken thumb that will see him miss up to 6-8 weeks, while the long kicking Shannon Hurn will be struggling to get back this season with his injured ankle.
The Bombers are coming off the bye with a smile as two of its top 4 rivals went down to lowly ranked teams. The Bombers have a small injury list, a welcome relief after years of soft tissue problems. Dustin Fletcher and Courtenay Dempsey are expected to return, while Michael Hurley will be given until the last minute to get his wrist injury ready. Unfortunately, the drug controversy has reared its ugly head once again after Jobe Watson admitted to having a banned substance injected. They have so far been able to deal this situation well; I can’t see Watson’s words being a factor to the result.
This is a big opportunity for the Bombers with a 12 day break. The Eagles are missing two key players and are coming off a 6 day away trip. If Essendon are serious about their top 4 ambitions, these are the games they must win. They are great value at $1.98.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.33) vs CARLTON ($3.30)
AT THE SCG, FRIDAY 28/06, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Sydney 14.9 (93) defeated Carlton 10.11 (71) at Etihad, R19, 2012
Line: Sydney -20.5, Carlton +20.5
The magnitude of this game is just as large as any this round. Like West Coast vs Essendon, we have two teams attempting to cement positions at opposite ends of the 8. A loss to either side may see them lose touch with their respective packs.
The Swans would have been utterly disappointed with its unexpected loss to Port Adelaide. Seen as the inform team of the competition before the game, the Swans lost a great opportunity to make inroads to the top 2 and now have a battle to get its top 4 position back from Essendon. On top of a horrible loss, Adam Goodes is a confirmed out with a PCL injury that should only see him miss a week.
Carlton is coming off their bye and will have a 14 day break compared to Sydney’s 6. Captain Marc Murphy will miss another 2-3 weeks after sustaining a fractured cheekbone in the well publicised collision with Luke Hodge. Mitch Robinson is suffering from a shoulder injury and will need the whole week to recover in time.
The extra break helps Carlton, but Marc Murphy is an important loss. The results have been well split recently, but you’d expect the Swans to come out and prove that the Port loss was only a minor stumble.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
GOLD COAST ($2.15) vs ADELAIDE ($1.70)
AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 29/06, 13:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Adelaide 22.21 (153) defeated Gold Coast 9.8 (62) at AAMI, R23, 2012
Line: Gold Coast +6.5, Adelaide -6.5
Two clubs that are close to having their finals ambitions culminated. The winner goes on to fight another day, while the loser will have too much ground to make up.
The Gold Coast Suns are beginning to make Metricon Stadium a difficult place to travel to and have already beaten 3 Melbourne teams at home. They now get an opportunity to defeat a South Australian side in poor form. Gary Ablett is arguably in the form of his career, which is a large statement to make considering what he has achieved, averaging 34.83 possessions over his last six games. He is just can’t be tagged and rarely fails to have a major influence on any game. The Suns will miss Tom Lynch for 8 weeks with a knee injury while Harley Bennell, Charlie Dixon, Matthew Warnock, Jesse Lonergan, Jared Brennan, Karmichael Hunt and Steven May are all chances to return.
How disappointing have the Crows been? Who knows where they would be at without Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane and Richard Douglas? Excluding Taylor Walker, the injury list is short and the excuses are wearing thin. It is time for Brenton Sanderson to make a statement and drop some of the underperforming regulars to the SANFL to find form.
The Suns are fantastic odds. I’m more than happy to take the $2.15.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 13 POINTS
PORT ADELAIDE ($3.30) vs COLLINGWOOD ($1.33)
AT AAMI STADIUM, SATURDAY 29/06, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Collingwood 14.13 (97) vs Port 10.13 (73) at Etihad, R4, 2012
Line: Port +19.5, Collingwood -19.5
I think we are all interested in seeing how Port Adelaide back up its brilliant victory against Sydney. The Power gets another opportunity to defeat a top 8 side with Collingwood looking to consolidate its position.
Port Adelaide put together one of its most impressive performances for many years. The Sydney Swans are renowned for its strength at the stoppages, leading the competition for contested possessions by nearly 8 more per game than any other side. In conditions that would have suited Sydney’s style, Port beat the Swans in the contested possessions 176-163. That is a relevant stat that proves that the Swans were genuinely beaten and the Power didn’t just fall across the line. Travis Boak is now rated as a 50/50 chance to return and would be a massive inclusion.
Collingwood are coming off the bye and will be far more rested than the Power who has a wet, heavy game to recover from. The Pies will be assessing the potential inclusions of Luke Ball, Alan Didak, Andrew Krakouer and even Hawthorn recruit Clinton Young.
Port Adelaide hasn’t beaten Collingwood at AAMI Stadium since 2004, an amazing stat really. I can’t see the Power pulling off consecutive upsets. Keep an eye on the weather forecast though.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 29 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.50) vs FREMANTLE ($2.60)
AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 29/06, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Fremantle 14.12 (96) defeated Geelong 11.14 (80) at the MCG, EF, 2012
Line: Geelong -12.5, Fremantle +12.5
This is clearly the game of the round. The winner is rewarded with a top 2 position and a confidence boost for any encounter these two may have come September.
The Cats got a much needed reality check after giving up a 52 point lead against a gutsy Lions outfit. Since Sunday afternoon, Geelong has been described as arrogant, cocky and disrespectful toward their opponents. They may well have been all those things, but at the end of the day, you need to implement the basics and that is exactly where they let themselves down. The biggest blow of the night is the suspension of Steve Johnson who will miss the key games against Fremantle and Hawthorn.
The Dockers just keep restricting sides to ridiculously low scores. Last week it was North Melbourne’s turn, conceding a miserly 29 points. This week they meet a premiership contender, a perfect opportunity to test this game plan at a venue that every team struggles at. Fremantle have only beaten Geelong once at Simonds Stadium out of 12 encounters. The lowest score they have conceded at Geelong is 75 points, a number that Ross Lyon will be looking to better. There will again be no Pavlich or Sandilands this week, while Michael Barlow is in doubt after having minor facial surgery. David Mundy is set to return.
Geelong’s Simonds Stadium record is too difficult to ignore. Fremantle will be competitive though and their +12.5 line deserves consideration.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
MELBOURNE ($4.85) vs WESTERN BULLDOGS ($1.18)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 29/06, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Dogs 13.10 (88) defeated Melbourne 9.13 (67) at the MCG, R4, 2012
Line: Melbourne +30.5, Dogs -30.5
This is where the games start losing a bit of quality. If last week’s St Kilda vs Melbourne clash is anything to judge by, I don’t hold too much hope for this match.
Neil Craig drew some positive reviews from his first game as coach of the Dees. The result itself was one of the better for Melbourne this year, but the effort was the major positive. They matched the Saints for tackles at 47 and actually won the inside 50s 46-45. Colin Garland is having an outstanding season considering the constant supply entering his defensive 50. He is generally negating his opponent as well as he can, but has been able to add an attacking aspect to his game. Garland in particular will welcome the inclusion of James Frawley.
This is a big opportunity for the young Dogs to get another scalp under the belt. Brendan McCartney would have been disappointed with the effort against Richmond, with only Ryan Griffen and Matthew Boyd offering any resistance. Brett Goodes is expected to miss with a wrist injury.
It was a better effort by the Demons, but they were smashed in the clearances and that area is the Dogs strength.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 39 POINTS
HAWTHORN ($1.05) vs BRISBANE ($10.00)
AT AURORA STADIUM, SUNDAY 30/06, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Hawthorn 19.21 (135) defeated Brisbane 11.4 (70) at the MCG, R12, 2012
Line: Hawthorn -45.5, Brisbane +45.5
The Hawks are now a game and percentage clear on the top of the ladder thanks to the Brisbane Lions knocking off Geelong. Hawthorn is just doing as much as it needs to at this point of time with key contenders falling off behind them. They have the most inform forward line in the competition with talls Roughead, Franklin and Gunston all regularly kicking bags of goals. It has been confirmed that Grant Birchall will miss 4-6 weeks with a PCL injury.
How much of a high would Brisbane be on right now? It’s not very often that you are 52 points down approaching three quarter time and win the game after the siren with a kick from outside 50. It really was an amazing set of circumstances, from the record amount of goals kicked in a quarter outside 50 by Brisbane (6 in the 4th) to the ball rebounding off the umpire, setting up a Zorko goal and changing the momentum of the game. It will be a hard act to follow for the Lions.
You can’t tip against the Hawks at Aurora. Brisbane will get a nice little reality check here.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 63 POINTS
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.01) vs GWS ($15.00)
AT ETIHAD STADIUM, 30/06, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: North 16.9 (105) defeated GWS 11.11 (77) at Skoda, R23, 2012
Line: North -75.5, GWS +75.5
North Melbourne would be relieved to be coming up against GWS. They have had a tough month. While it did dispose of St Kilda easily in round 10, games against Adelaide, Gold Coast and Fremantle would have been mentally draining. They will be looking to get a big figure victory against the Giants to get some confidence back. North Melbourne will be waiting to see if Lindsay Thomas will be available due to a hamstring injury, but the signs aren’t good.
The Giants had the week off to think about how it can have any impact on this competition by the end of the season. At least the bye meant they didn’t have to suffer another demoralising loss. The constant selection revolving door means it is almost an impossible task to predict what players will take the field without the luxury of the Thursday night teams.
Brad Scott’s men must take advantage of the chance to have a stress free result. They’ll win convincingly.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 75 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.22) vs ST KILDA ($4.25)
AT THE MCG, 30/06, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: Richmond 14.15 (99) defeated St Kilda 12.10 (82) at the MCG, R2, 2013
Line: Richmond -28.5, St Kilda +28.5
In the past, this was the type of game that Richmond could let slip. With 22 contributors every week, the danger of those types of circumstances is becoming less likely with every game they play. The Tigers produced another solid effort that again had no stand out performer against the Bulldogs. Trent Cotchin was kept to 17 disposals and his form over the last month would be worrying Damien Hardwick. He will be looking to turn that dip in output around against the lowly Saints. Troy Chaplin twisted his knee against the Dogs and while he has been cleared of any structural damage, he is in doubt for this game.
The Saints were ok against Melbourne, but really missed an opportunity to put the battlers to the sword in the last quarter. After the week of controversy, they were just happy to get a win on the board for Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo in their milestone games. After being a late withdrawal on Saturday afternoon, it has been announced that Sam Fisher will miss the rest of the season. He will be difficult to replace.
Richmond will win this comfortably. The -28.5 line even deserves slight consideration.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 43 POINTS
THE AUTHOR
I’ve been a passionate supporter and follower of AFL for as long as I can remember. Having been born into a family with deep football history and tradition on both sides, you can say it runs through my blood. I’ve got a keen interest in the stats and analysis of the game, which helped me finish in the top 100 of fantasy competitions DreamTeam and Supercoach last year. While my own local football career was cut short due to injury at 22, it has created an opportunity for me to frequently
watch and build a deep knowledge of the sport at its highest level. I look forward to sharing my thoughts and views throughout the season.
