Welcome to The Profits round 14 analysis with Drew and Euan. We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.30) vs Carlton Blues ($3.55) – The MCG, Friday June 29, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Carlton 8.18 (66) def by Hawthorn 10.18 (78), round 22, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: That losing feeling Carlton has had for the past 6 weeks may raise its ugly head again when they meet the Hawks at the MCG Friday night. Form hasn’t meant a lot when it comes to tipping but we would need to see another form reversal to tip the Blues.
Hawks by 26 points
Line: Hawks -22.5
Fremantle Dockers ($6.75) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.11) – MCG, Saturday June 30, 1.45pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 20.12 (132) d Fremantle 8.4 (52), round 23, 2011, at Subiaco
Game preview: The Pies put away one team from the West last week and it’s almost a sure thing that they will do the same to Fremantle in this game. The Dockers just don’t have the players to counter Collingwood’s runners and ball carriers. I am sure Freo will be competitive but that doesn’t always win you games.
Magpies by 44 points
Line: Magpies -38.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.42) vs Richmond Tigers ($2.90) – AAMI Stadium, Saturday June 30, 1.40pm
Recent clashes: Adelaide 15.9 (99) defeated by Richmond 17.19 (121) round 23, 2011 at AAMI Stadium
Game preview: This is an important game more so for Richmond than Adelaide as the Tigers must keep winning these games against higher placed teams to be a chance to play finals. They sit in the ruck with the rest of the moderate teams at the moment. The Crows will want to make up for their form lapse last week against North Melbourne. Hard to see Richmond being good enough here.
Crows by 5 points
Line: Tigers +17.5
West Coast Eagles ($1.01) vs Gold Coast Suns ($17.00) – Patersons Stadium, Saturday June 30, 2.40pm
Recent clashes: West Coast 13.7 (86) d Gold Coast 10.7 (67), round 11, 2011, at Patersons Stadium
Game preview: Gary Ablett’s Gold Coast Suns do not stand a chance in this game. It will be a nice trip back to Perth for Bluey McKenna so he can visit friends and family. Best he sticks to that social program as it will result in less stress than trying to devise ways for his team to come close to the Eagles.
Eagles by 80
Line: Eagles – 71.5
Essendon Bombers ($1.22) vs Western Bulldogs ($4.40) – Etihad Stadium, Saturday June 30, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Essendon 23.12 (150) d Western Bulldogs 15.11 (101), round 21, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: Tipsters would have given the Bulldogs a chance to maybe go close to winning this a couple of weeks ago but that’s a long time in football. Essendon keep on winning and they sit in the top 4 after more than half the season has passed. The Bullies got smashed last week and it might be a repeat for them this week.
Bombers by 32 points
Line: Bombers -29.5
Sydney Swans ($1.01) vs Greater Western Sydney ($17.00) – ANZ Stadium, Saturday June 30, 7.40pm
Recent clashes: Sydney Swans 14.16 (100) d Greater Western Sydney 5.7 (37), round one, 2012 at ANZ Stadium
Game preview: The last time these two teams met it was a slaughter and there is not a lot of difference in form that suggests the result will be any different in this round. The Giants are doing sort of okay in their first year and some say they have exceeded expectations but Sydney are also doing more than okay and have also exceeded expectations.
Swans by 41 points
Line: Giants +66.5
Geelong Cats ($1.06) vs Port Adelaide Power ($9.00) – Simonds Stadium, Sunday, July 1, 1.10pm
Recent clashes: Geelong 17.20 (122) d Port Adelaide 6.7 (43), round 3, 2011, at Simonds Stadium
Game preview: Have you seen Geelong coach Scott’s face when he’s angry? Like when the Cats lost last week against Sydney? He’s a scary dude. Geelong players are probably used to it when they had Bomber Thompson coaching anyway. Just to placate their coach it’s a sure thing that the Cats will beat the Power who might trouble lower teams but won’t beat teams like Geelong….except Carlton of course.
Cats by 65 points
Line: Cats -51.5
Brisbane Lions ($1.26) vs Melbourne Demons ($3.90) – The Gabba, Sunday July 1, 3.15pm
Recent clashes: Brisbane Lions 17.17 (119) d Melbourne 11.12 (78), round 1, 2012, at the MCG
Game preview: Both teams had massive victories last week so if you are going to tip on form, always a dangerous thing to do with these two teams, then it might be a flip of a coin. Brisbane has won more games and they are making it difficult for teams at the Gabba. Based on the game being at the Gabba and the loss of Clark to the Dees then the tip is with the Lions.
Lions by 33
Line: Lions -26.5
St Kilda Saints ($1.36) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($3.20) – Etihad Stadium, Sunday July 1, 4.40pm
Recent clashes: St Kilda 19.21 (135) defeated North Melbourne 10.10 (70), round 23, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Game preview: This is certainly one of the games of the rounds with both teams equal on points and separated by percentage only. Depending on a couple of other results a North win would see them in the 8. A Saints win would give them a little breathing room. Expect a ferocious, tough contest here and it would surprising to see a big margin at the end.
Saints by 27
Line: Saints -18.5
Betting
Cats 40+ at 1.50
Hawks -11.5 at 1.52
Lions -15.5 at 1.52
Saints 1-39 at 2.25
Giants +66.5 at 1.91
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
