The large portion of statistical data has been provided below. All tipping and betting data will be updated by Friday morning.
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Team with the BYE
Richmond Tigers
Essendon Bombers ($1.22) vs Melbourne Demons ($4.30) – Friday 7:40pm AEST
What the stats say
Essendon have won 3 of the last 4 meetings (Melbourne won last meeting Round 15 2010 by 19 points).
Essendon lead Tackles 69 to 63 per match. Melbourne lead marking 93 to 85 per match.
Both teams average around 360 disposals per game but Essendon average 22.2 disposals per goal compared to Melbournes 27.7 per goal.
Key game changes
Reimers and Davey have been dropped from the Dons squad to make way for Colyer and Browne.
Melbourne have cleaned the floor by dropping Petterd, Maric, Warnock, Bate and Newton(Injured) while bringing back in some handy players in Scully, Trengove and also Strauss, Howe and Gawn.
Who will win?
Melbourne have a huge lift in their midfield with Scully and Trengove back in but Scully will not be 100% match fit and the loss of Newton, Maric and Petterd are too much for this side to handle the Dons team.
Essendon will win by 32 points.
Betting Option
Essendon -7.5 at $1.33
Geelong Cats ($1.11) vs Western Bulldogs ($6.70) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Geelong have won 24 games in a row at Skilled Stadium.
Geelong has won 4 of the last 5 meetings including a 101 point win Round 20 2010.
Western Bulldogs lead Tackles 66 to 62 per match
Geelong lead marking 104 to 78 per match
Geelong lead hitouts 35 to 34 per game
Geelong average 400 disposals per game and 28.16 disposals per goal compared to Doggies 364 per game and 28.66 per goal.
Key game changes
Enright, Ottens and Taylor are HANDY in’s for the undefeated cats team with Mooney and Hawkins being dropped and Chapman is out with Groin problems (the only loss of the 3).
Doggies on the other hand have dropped Gilbee and lose Hall, Liberatore and Reid to injury. In comes Hargrave, Grant, Djerrkura and Mulligan.
Who will win?
Cats have won 24 in a row at their home ground and there is no way the Doggies team will get over the Cats.
Cats by 35
Betting Option
Cats -14.5 at $1.24
West Coast Eagles ($1.03) vs Gold Coast Suns ($12.50) – Saturday 1:10pm AWST (3:10pm AEST)
What the stats say
Battle of the ‘Coasts’. East meets West. Apart from clearences, Eagles are dominating each area of the game.
Disposals by 25, Hitouts by 19, Marks by 17 and tackles by 7 on average per game above what Gold Coast bring.
Gold Coast have the worst record in the league for Disposals per goal averaging 32 compared to West Coasts 26.
Key game changes
Ebert is out for Eagles with Strikj in.
Suns have made a number of changes with Hunt suspended, Matera out with a groin injury and Shaw and Dixon both dropped with Fraser, Hine, Bennell and Tape coming back in.
Who will win?
West Coast will convincingly beat the Suns.
Eagles by 85+
Betting Option
We like to keep these suns games nice and safe.
Eagles -40.5 at $1.26
Collingwood Magpies ($1.20) vs St Kilda Saints ($4.60) – Saturday 7:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Both these teams have played well against each other in recent years. The last 4 games (in-season) show 2 win each.
Pies go by foot over 40 times per game more than Saints while Saints go by Hand 3 times more per game.
Pies lead the marking with 93 per game compared to Saints 82.
Both teams have very low tackle counts around the 68 mark.
The one key stat is the Pies score a goal from every 22 disposals compared to Saints 1 goal per 30!
Key game changes
Leigh Brown is a very handy in for the pies and out of form Blair has been dropped.
Saints suffered two injuries last week with Blake and Lynch going out and Winmar has been dropped. Goddard is expected to be a late omission also.
In comes Baker and two ‘newbies’ in Simpkin and Ledger.
Who will win?
The Pies were beyond impressive last week against the Eagles and will make easy work of the Saints.
Pies by 42
Betting Option
Pies -10.5 at $1.33
Brisbane Lions ($1.84) vs Sydney Swans ($1.97) – Saturday 7:40pm AEST
What the stats say
Sydney won 10 of the last 13 games… including the last two in a row by 20 and 38.
Both teams average around 198 kicks per game while Swans only go by hand 130 per game compared to brisbanes 150.
Both teams are low on Disposals per game and Sydney are very low on marks with only 68 per game compared to Brisbanes 82.
Swans tackle hard with 84 per game compared to Brisbanes 69.
Brisbane are averaging 43 hitouts per game compared to Swans 38… and Mumford not 100% to come back this week.
Final stat: Brisbane take 29 disposals per goal compared to Swans 28.75.. pretty close.
Key game changes
Brisbane have made no changes to their team while Swans have dropped Johnston (was bad last week) and Park. In come Dennis-Lane and Everitt.
Who will win?
There is no doubt that this will be a close game. Home ground advantage pushs this match into the favour of Brisbane. All of the stats are pointing towards the Lions in this game and they should get over the line.
Brisbane by 12 points
Betting Option
Brisbane +28.5 at $1.24
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.11) vs Fremantle Dockers ($6.70) – Sunday 1:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Hawks have won the last 3 games against Freo, including two in Perth. Hawks won the last meeting against an injury ravaged Freo by 116 points in Tasmania last year.
Hawthorn had 180 marks in last weeks game.. that must be a record!
Hawks are averaging 114 per game compared to Freo 81.
Hawks are also averaging 400 disposals per game while Freo are only on 353.. which will decrease with so many star players out, especially Sandilands.
Hawks average 66 tackles per game compared to Freo’s 71..
Freo lead hitouts 45 to 36 but with no Sandi this will decrease significantly also.
Both teams averaging around 28 disposals per goal.
Key game changes
Ladson, Young, Cheney and Lisle in for Hawks with Bateman out.
No outs for Freo with pearce, Hinley and Clarke all coming in.
Who will win?
Hawks will dominate all areas of this match due to Injuries suffered by Freo
Hawks by 34
Betting Option
Hawks -16.5 at $1.24
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.52) vs Adelaide Crows ($2.55) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Adelaide have won 8 of the last 9 matchs (North won the last one by 9 points)
Both teams averaging around 198 kicks per game and 158 handballs per game.
Adelaide are taking 92 marks per game compared to Roos 79.
North are laying 66 tackles per match compared to Adelaides 60.
North average 38 hitouts compared to Adelaide 43
Both teams very bad with disposals with Roos averaging 29 and Adelaide 30.
Key game changes
Warren, Tarrant, Richardson, Harper and Pedersen all its for Roos while Firrito has been suspended and Pratt is out injured.
Adelaide have dropped Cook and McKernan while Walker and Smith are our injured.
Maric, Vince, Moran, Symes, Otten, Schmidt and Gunston are all ins
Who will win?
Adelaide lost by 40 points last week to Brisbane at home while Kangaroos took Sydney to the limit losing by just one point. Roos should be too strong
North Melbourne by 18
Betting Option
North Melbourne +17.5 at $1.25
Port Adelaide Power ($4.75) vs Carlton Blues ($1.19) – Sunday 4:10pm ACST (4:40pm AEST)
What the stats say
Carlton have won the last four games against Port Adelaide including 3 of those in Adelaide.
Carlton are kicking the ball 230 times per game compared to Port Adelaide 198. Carlton are handballing 150 per match compared to Port Adelaide 135
Carlton are marking 100 times per match compared to Port Adelaide 82.
Carlton are landing 76 tackles per match compared to Port 64.
Carlton are winning Hitouts 43 per match compared to Port 30
Carlton are averaging a goal every 27.5 disposals compared to Port’s 28.30
Key game changes
Ebert, Sujan and Banner are all ins for Port with no outs.
Carlton have dropped McLean and lose Laidler to a knee injury. Curnow, Houlihan, Joseph, Henderson and Tuohy are all handy in’s.
Who will win?
Port Adelaide exposed Richmond last week as the ‘over achievers’ they have been the last month and a bit. Carlton are very consistant and will be too good.
Carlton by 39
Betting Option
Carlton -11.5 at $1.37
Betting Options in Order of Preference
Carlton -11.5 at $1.37
Cats -14.5 at $1.24
Essendon -7.5 at $1.33
Pies -10.5 at $1.33
Eagles -40.5 at $1.26
Hawks -16.5 at $1.24
Brisbane +28.5 at $1.24
North Melbourne +17.5 at $1.25
Please note
All Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
