All Sunday game statistics will be posted to justify their picks on Friday evening.
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Melbourne Demons ($4.45) vs Carlton Blues ($1.21) – Friday 7:40pm AEST
What the stats say
Carlton kick the ball 17 times more per game while Demons go by hand 5 times more.
Both teams average around 96 marks per match.
Carlton average 30 scoring shots a game compared to 27 for Melbourne.
Carlton are killing it this year in tackle count with an average of 76 per game compared to Melbournes 63.
Hitouts are even… interestingly both teams go into the game WITHOUT their main rucks.
The last interesting stat is it takes Melbourne 26 disposals to get a goal while Carlton takes 27.
Key game changes
Melbourne already have a large injury list and with 3 more added to it this week, they are down and out. Warnock is the only out for Carlton with Hampson in.
Who will win?
Carlton will apply too much pressure and they will get over Melbourne by 44 points
Betting Option
Carlton -7.5 at $1.26
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($2.16) vs Sydney Swans ($1.70) – Saturday 2:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Swans have won the last 3 meetings with the last two being by over 30 points.
The stats are clear that Sydney are a low disposal team with 4 less kicks per game and 31 less handballs. Kangaroos are also averaging 81 marks per game compared to Sydneys 64.
Sydney makes up for the above stats with an average of 84 tackles per game compared to the Kangaroos poor 65 per game. Also, Sydney make up for it in Hitouts with 40 per game compared to Kangaroos 34 (Please note Mumford, key ruck for Sydney is OUT).
Both teams take 28 disposals per goal
Sydney has only lost 3 games this year and each of those are to top 4 teams.
Key game changes
Two BIG ins for North Melbourne with Liam Anthony and Levi Greenwood coming back in while Mumford and Everitt both go out for Sydney. The ruck will be a key winning area for North in this game.
Who will win
Sydney were poor last week against Hawthorn. That being said, North couldn’t close the door against Brisbane. Two big ins and two big outs make this game sway the game to being closer than you would expect. Swans will pull it out in the end by 10 points
Betting Options
Sydney Swans +27.5 at $1.24
Fremantle Dockers ($1.56) vs St Kilda Saints ($2.44) – Saturday 1:10pm AWST (3:10pm AEST)
What the stats say
St Kilda have won the last 6 games against Fremantle.
St Kilda average 3 more kicks per match while Freo average 13 more handballs. Strangely, you would expect Fremantle to be taking more marks, but St Kilda are taking 1 more per match!
Both teams average 68 tackles per match.
Fremantle are killing the hitouts this year with an average of 44 compared to Saints 34. With Sandilands out, this will go in Saints favour.
Saints have one of the worst Disposals per goal ratio needing over 30 per goal compared to Freos 26.
Key game changes
Unquestionably the best Ruckman in the league, Sandilands, is out this week. Cripps is also out for Saints but not a huge loss.
Who will win
Freo have a large number of injuries and have been quite bad of late due to injuries. Saints looked ok last weekend and should have trained on to be able to bring it to Fremantle and get the win by 12 points.
Betting Option
St Kilda +40.5 at $1.21
Gold Coast Suns ($12.50) vs Geelong Cats ($1.03) – Saturday 7:20PM AEST
What the stats say
Cats are having 220 kicks and 177 handblals on average compared to Gold Coasts 180 and 154.. which shows how little of the ball Gold Coast are getting.
Cats are having 102 marks per game compared to Gold Coasts 69.
Cats are having 28 scoring shots per game compared to Gold Coasts 23
Both teams are fairly low on tackle count averaging 62 a piece.
Cats are leading the Hitouts with 36 per game compared to 31 for Gold Coast, but with Ottens out, this will be closer.
Cats are taking 29.92 disposals per goal compared to Suns 32.12 (which is bad when you consider how little they are having).
Key game changes
Cats have left quite a few out with Christensen, Ottens, Taylor and Enright being dropped due to ‘injury’. Some fairly handy players come into the team with Lonergan, Ling, Mooney and Cowan being named.
For Gold Coast, Tape, Patrick, Nicholls and Daye have been dropped with Weller, Harris, Dixon and Prestia coming back into the team.
Who will win?
Cats are on top for a reason and will easily take care of Gold Coast by 82.
Betting Option
Geelong -34.5 at $1.21
Richmond Tigers ($1.26) vs Port Adelaide Power ($3.90) – Saturday 8:10PM ACST (8:40pm AEST)
What the stats say
The last four meetings have resulted in 2 wins to each team.
Richmond average 201 kicks compared to Ports 196 and Richmond 157 handballs to Port 139.
Port are averaging two more marks per game while tigers average 6 more tackles. Port have one of the lowest Hitout records in the league with only 28 per game average while Richmond are averaging 34.
Richmond have a great disposal per goal ratio of 23.3 while Port sit on 28.3… which when you consider their low disposal count.. is quite a bad ratio.
Key game changes
Dylan Grimes have been great in the backline for Richmond and will be missed. Brad Miller and Matthew White have been included while for Port, Hitchcock comes in and Salopek is omitted.
Who will win
Port will hang in this game for at least three QTR’s but they will have no way of finishing against the class of Richmond who will win by 34 points.
Betting Option
Richmond -4.5
Adelaide Crows ($1.47) vs Brisbane Lions ($2.70) – Sunday 12:40pm (1:10 AEST)
What the stats say
Adelaide has won the last two games in close matchs by 7 and 12.
Both teams are pretty even disposal wise with Adelaide having slightly more handballs per game.
Adelaide are taking 14 more marks per game than Brisbane.. but you must think this would change with Captain Brown back in the Lions side.
Both teams are averaging 22 scoring shots a game and 42 hitouts a game.
Adelaide are woeful in the tackle count averaging 60 per month while Brisbane average a still poor 67.
Adelaide average 29 disposals per goal while Brisbane average 30.
Brisbane lost at home to Gold Coast by 6 points while Adelaide beat Gold Coast in Adelaide by over 50 points.
Brisbane have started well this year but have been poor in the 2nd Qtr only winning 1 of 8.
Adelaide have been consistant across all Qtrs this year according to the stats.
Key game changes
A few key changes from both teams. The big outs for the game are Tom Rockliff and Matt Maguire for Brisbane with McGrath and Collier coming in while Richmond have dropped Gunston, Tambling and Schmidt to bring in Petrenko, Walker and Cook.
Lets hope Walker doesn’t have a few beers before the game!
Who will win?
Adelaide by 17
Betting Option
A few big outs for Brisbane but Adelaide are up and down like a YoYo. You just don’t know what you are going to get. With those outs for Brisbane, Adelaide should be too strong at home. Adelaide -2.5 at $1.29
Collingwood Magpies ($1.16) vs West Coast Eagles ($5.30) – Sunday 2:10pm AEST
What the stats say
Pies have won the last 4 meetings.
The pies are kicking more than any team in the league with 240 on average while Eagles are kicking 203 a game.
Eagles are handballing 160 a game compared to pies 149.
Interestingly, Magpies are taking 93 marks per game compared to Eagles 88.
Both are averaging around 30 scoring shots a game.
Both teams are pretty even on tackles with West coast 70 and Magpies 67.
Eagles are DOMINATING teams in the ruck with an average of 50 hitouts compared to Pies 31.. and no Jolly means a huge dominance in the ruck for Eagles this week.
Something to watch out for, Eagles are averaging 23 frees for and 19 against while Pies are a more even team with 19.8 and 19.2. Expect Eagles to pressure pies into giving away more frees.
An amazing stat for the pies this year is their disposals per goal. Both teams have a great rate but Pies have a 21.55 disposal per goal record compared to Eagles 24.50.
Collingwood have won only two 3rd Qtr’s all year.
Key game changes
No real ‘game changes’ with Toovey back in and Goldsack out and Sheppard in for Butler.
Who will win?
Eagles have been dominating teams of late while Pies were lackluster against the Crows and before that dominated by a Cats team who couldn’t kick straight.
Eagles by 12
Betting Option
West Coast +56.5 at $1.25
Western Bulldogs ($3.55) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.30) – Sunday 4:40pm AEST
What the stats say
Doggies have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams including a 32 point win in Hawks premiership year.
Hawks are one of the highest disposal averaging team in the league. They average 228 kicks and 166 handballs compared to the Doggies 205 kicks to 166 handballs.
With these disposals, they are hitting the mark with Hawks making 106 marks on average while Doggies average only 80.
Hawks have been averaging 29 shots per match compared to Doggies 23.
Both teams are exactly even on tackles with 66.8 per game and Hitouts is close also with Hawks leading slightly with 35.5 compared to 34.9
Finally, both teams are also quite similar with Disposals per Goal with Hawks on 27.69 and Doggies on 28.40 which tells you that Doggies are shooting straight infront of goal at least this year.
Doggies have been starting well this year winning 6 of 8 first Qtrs and then falling off from there while Hawks have won only 4 first Qtrs then come out and win all but 1 second Qtrs and then 5 and 6 for final Qtrs.. showing they finish strong.
Key game changes
Hawks have been no change to their team while Doggies have included Lake, Hill, Hall, Howard, Wallis and Reid with Hargrave and Moles going out injured and Stack, Markovic, Grant and Hudson being dropped.
Who will win?
Hawthorn by 38
Betting Option
Hawks +4.5 at $1.24
