Welcome to the AFL Preliminary Finals Preview. We have finally reached the penultimate week of the season and it is fair to say that the best four sides have reached the Preliminary Finals. As Hawthorn and Fremantle had the luxury of either sitting in the stands or on the couch, Geelong and Sydney needed to overcome tricky opposition to book themselves Preliminary Final berths.
Geelong got the biggest fright of the two when trailing the plucky Port Adelaide outfit by 23 points at half time. Although the Cats flexed its muscle with a typical third quarter surge, scoring 5.6 (36) to Port’s solitary major. Geelong needed to hold off one final Power surge in the fourth quarter, before running out to a comfortable 16 point victory.
The Swans completed its qualification with far greater ease, knocking the luck driven Carlton side out of the 2013 season. The 24 point result didn’t justify the true Sydney dominance, as a scoreless last quarter brought the margin down from a convincing 54 point three quarter time lead. The win was filled with negatives though, as the Swans will have to deal with the ramifications of key injuries from the night.
The Fremantle vs Sydney Preliminary Final is sure to be a credible contest, but the highlight of the weekend has to be the next stage of the Hawthorn vs Geelong “Kennett Curse”. It is the match up that every neutral supporter wanted and we are sure to see another chapter added to an already tense rivalry. Surely another epic finale is upon us? I can’t wait!
Best Bet
Geelong to win @ $3.10 (with the Sportsbet 18 point or less refund promotion)
HAWTHORN ($1.39) VS GEELONG ($3.10)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 20/09, 19:50
PREVIOUS 2013 ENCOUNTERS:
R1, Hawthorn 12.14 (86) lost to Geelong 13.15 (93) at the MCG
R15, Geelong 11.16 (82) defeated Hawthorn 10.12 (72) at the MCG
Line: Hawthorn -14.5, Geelong +14.5
Many predicted these two teams to play each other in the 2013 Grand Final and although we find the contest scheduled a week earlier, it doesn’t mean the drama of this modern rivalry will be any less enthralling.
Does the “Kennett Curse” exist? In reference to Hawthorn’s upset victory against Geelong in the 2008 Grand Final, then Hawthorn President Jeff Kennett appeared on the ABC’s Offsiders program and made the following statement before the Round 1, 2009 rematch. “What they don’t have, I think, is the quality of some of our players; they don’t have the psychological drive we have. We’ve beaten Geelong when it matters”. Geelong has not lost since, with 9 of the 11 encounters decided by 10 points or less. It is currently the longest one sided winning streak between any two clubs in the competition, which is amazing considering both sides have been positioned high on the ladder for a majority of that time. Both clubs deny it is a factor, but the numbers tell a defining story.
Hawthorn is in a pristine state coming into this game. The week off has given Cyril Rioli to the perfect preparation to overcome his ankle injury, while a man named Lance Franklin will return to the side after serving a one week suspension. Both have been starved of recent match practice, but Chris Scott would certainly prefer to see the two superstars out of the side than in. There were many expert commentators who described Hawthorn’s Qualifying Final dismantling of Sydney as the most impressive performance of the season. It is difficult to argue against that opinion, as the Hawks dominated possession, inside 50s and disposal efficiency against the reigning Premier. It is at the peak of its powers.
Geelong haven’t been anywhere near as impressive during the 2013 Finals Series, but it always brings its A game against Hawthorn. 11 consecutive victories is proof in the pudding, but how does this result consistently occur when Hawthorn seemingly have no problems against other opponents? The statistics point in the direction of an effective defensive hold, restriction and intense pressure. In round 15, the Geelong restricted Hawthorn to a disposal efficiency of 67.2%, nearly 7% less than its season average. The Hawks were also given far less space, recording only 206 uncontested possessions, 26 less than its season average of 232. Paul Chapman has accepted his harsh suspension, while Corey Enright pulled up short with his knee injury despite making a late run to be fit. Luckily for Geelong, it’s all conquering VFL side possesses a large array of options to counter injuries, but the experience of Chapman and Enright will be sorely lost.
As usual, the head to head odds for this encounter are far too wide between each side. This will be a line ball contest and I’d be extremely surprised to see a blowout. Sportsbet are once again offering an 18 point or less refund promotion on head to head markets if your team loses, making the Geelong $3.10 odds extremely attractive. Only 2 of the past 11 games have seen the margin exceed 18 points. In a week creating minimal betting options, the Cats are worth the risk at that price, especially with an 18 point buffer and potential rain forecasted.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 6 POINTS
FREMANTLE ($1.31) VS SYDNEY ($3.60)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 21/09, 19:45
PREVIOUS 2013 ENCOUNTER: R8, Sydney 11.4 (70) drew with Fremantle 9.16 (70) at the SCG
Line: Fremantle -20.5, Sydney +20.5
If the Round 9 encounter is anything to go by, this will be an entertaining game. That night, a late Michael Johnson set shot from 50 metres didn’t make the distance, resulting in a tied result. Sydney dominated a majority of the statistics on the night, but losses in contested possession, inside 50s and centre clearances saw the Dockers nearly steal an upset victory at the SCG. Since then, we have seen Fremantle develop into a ruthlessly disciplined Premiership threat, while the Swans have slipped out of the top 3 contenders in betting markets.
Fremantle will host its first ever Preliminary Final for the opportunity to play in the club’s maiden Grand Final appearance. There is no doubt that Saturday night will be the biggest event in the history of Fremantle Football Club. The club has turned the corner since sacking its popular coach Mark Harvey in 2011 to chase the big fish in Ross Lyon. It was an unsociable and bold decision by the board that was met with negative feedback, but the outcome can’t be questioned. Lyon has turned the often maligned Fremantle into a well oiled, united and successful football team that strives for nothing more than the top. The defensive structures and pressure acts set them aside from the rest, while a disciplined game style ensures the Dockers enter dangerous areas in situations that suit their strengths. Fremantle averages 28 more marks a game than the Swans and while they average 6 less inside 50s per game, it is shows they are willing to hold the ball longer to ensure an efficient entry into the forward arc. The solely crowned Fremantle All Australian Michael Johnson will return to the line up, while Garrick Ibbotson has been ruled out.
It was much more familiar Sydney on Saturday night from recent performances. It gathered 442 disposals and operated at a remarkable 77.1% efficiency. Jarrad McVeigh was outstanding, especially in the second quarter where he gathered a Finals record 20 disposals. He is likely to gain the attention of Ryan Crowley, who arguably lost his only battle of the year against Sydney when Dan Hannebery gathered 12 possessions and kicked 3 goals during a 45 minute stint in the Round 9 encounter. The biggest issue for the Swans are the injuries from Saturday night. Kurt Tippett and Tom Mitchell have been ruled out with knee and ankle injuries respectively. The list was already stretched to the brink with the absences of Goodes, Reid, Shaw and Johnson, while a corked hamstring will have Ryan O’Keefe off the track for a majority of the week. Ben McGlynn returns to the side.
The Dockers look primed for its first Grand Final berth. The Swans have limped into this Preliminary Final with injuries taking a toll. Despite the intensity dropping significantly, Sydney failed to score in the last quarter. This is Fremantle’s time.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 27 POINTS
