Welcome to the AFL Grand Final Preview. After 206 games of football, we are left with Hawthorn and Fremantle to fight for the 2013 Premiership on Saturday afternoon. It shapes as a contrasting contest as Hawthorn are the highest scoring team in the competition averaging 113.75 points per game, while Fremantle are easily the most defensive, restricting its opponents to a miserly average of 69.33 points every match. Alastair Clarkson’s highly efficient style compared to the contested and intense pressure implemented game plan of Ross Lyon will create one of the more tactical Grand Finals in recent memory. This Grand Final is likely to be just as competitive in the coach’s box, as it will be on the field.
Hawthorn has reached a second consecutive Grand Final by overcoming one of the clubs greatest hoodoos, the Kennett Curse. The Hawks trailed Geelong by 20 points at three quarter time, before storming home in the last to snatch the victory in a classic. Statistically, it would have been an injustice had Hawthorn not got through as the numbers were at the extreme side of one sided reading. Hawthorn played to its strengths, but at the end of the day, its poor kicking kept the Cats in the game.
Fremantle produced arguably the most impressive Finals performance of 2013 to date. The manic defensive pressure directed towards Sydney, particularly in the first half, was probably the most intense I’ve ever seen. The attack on the ball carrier meant Sydney struggled to move forward with any efficiency, which saw them restricted to only 4 scoring shots to half time. It is exactly what Ross Lyon will be looking to recreate against Hawthorn.
HAWTHORN ($1.68) VS FREMANTLE ($2.25)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 28/09, 14:30
PREVIOUS 2013 ENCOUNTER: R4, Hawthorn 18.10 (118) defeated Fremantle 11.10 (76) at Aurora.
Line: Hawthorn -7.5, Fremantle +7.5
Total Game Points Over/Under: 167.5 points
It is the most attacking versus the most defensive. The Hawks have been the Premiership favourite for a majority of the season, while the success starved Fremantle Dockers have gained the respect of the industry through disciplined and defence orientated football. This Grand Final is set up to be an epic contest.
There isn’t too much to be taken out of the previous encounter in Round 4, as the Dockers were missing key personnel in Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Luke McPharlin. That day, Hawthorn gathered 250 uncontested possessions and operated at 76.2% efficiency. The Hawks implemented its strengths perfectly and dominated. This Fremantle side is far different from that of five months ago and Ross Lyon will ensure that there isn’t a reoccurrence of those numbers.
We all know that Hawthorn is the most damaging side on the outside. It averages 232 uncontested possessions per game and runs at an average efficiency of 73.6%, which are extremely high numbers. In Hawthorn’s two most recent losses in Round 15 and 19 against Geelong and Richmond respectively, those numbers are much lower than the normal lofty averages. It suggests that if you restrict the space, the Hawks are nowhere near as dangerous. Fremantle are the perfect side to implement the required pressure and restriction.
The positive for the Hawks is that the three big names in Franklin, Roughead and Rioli have barely fired a shot in the two finals. Of course Franklin and Rioli didn’t play in the Qualfying Final, but the three have combined for only 3 goals during September, which suggests there is a large scope for improvement. Jack Gunston and David Hale have filled the void with a combined 11 goals over the two finals. If the Hawks can improve its goal kicking accuracy and get contributions from Franklin, Roughead and Rioli, the club should notch up Premiership number 11.
Unfortunately, there is a hard luck story coming into every Grand Final, but it rarely happens to the same player in consecutive years and that fate has fallen on Brendan Whitecross. After snapping his ACL in the 2012 Qualifying Final, Whitecross has suffered the same injury once again, this time late in the Preliminary Final after being the sub. He will be the only exclusion for the match, with Jonathan Simpkin deservedly taking his position after winning the Norm Goss Medal in Box Hill’s VFL Premiership win on Sunday.
Excluding the virtual forfeit against St Kilda in Round 23, there hasn’t been a side score over 100 points against the Dockers since the Round 4 encounter against Hawthorn. Ross Lyon strives in suffocating his opponents and ensuring there is no easy pathway to goal. The Preliminary Final was no exception and perhaps the greatest standard ever created, as every player in a purple jumper launched at any contest like men possessed. Chris Mayne was the best of a ferocious bunch, not only laying 13 tackles, but breaking the record for the most pressure acts ever recorded in the forward 50 with 34. This is not your usual defensive small forward; this is a man who stands 188 centimetres with a tackling efficiency of 67.1%, an imposing figure for any defender trying to rebound successfully. Fremantle will enter the first Grand Final in its 19 year history unchanged.
Thankfully for the neutral supporter, we have ourselves an extremely tight Grand Final. If there is any side that can dismantle the skilful Hawthorn side, it is the Fremantle Dockers. The weather forecast looks nasty for Hawthorn with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and hail clearing by early afternoon. There is plenty pointing toward a maiden Fremantle Premiership which is making their $2.25 odds look more than tempting.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
NORM SMITH MEDAL
The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the best player on the ground of the Grand Final and everyone loves having a flutter on their prediction. Of the 35 medals to be awarded, only 4 (Maurice Rioli 1982, Gary Ablett 1989, Nathan Buckley 2002, Chris Judd 2005) have come from the losing side, so ensure you get on a Premiership player. Another key point to take note of is that like the Brownlow, key forwards rarely win the medal. Gary Ablett kicked 9 in 1989 to win, but it is impossible to see any massive bags like that being kicked on Saturday afternoon. Here are the best options for the big dance.
NATHAN FYFE ($7.00)
He can gather big disposal totals, gain clearances, kick goals and take a big mark. It is no surprise to see him favourite for the Norm Smith Medal. He has played two very good finals, averaging 26 disposals and the last day in September looks to be his stage.
SAM MITCHELL ($8.00)
No one would have any arguments if he was installed as favourite for the medal and he could well be once Saturday rolls around. Coming off a 38 possession Preliminary against Geelong, he looks to be hitting peak form at the right time of the year. Beware a likely match up with Ryan Crowley though.
LUKE HODGE ($8.50)
He is back playing the role that won him the 2008 Norm Smith Medal. Expect Fremantle to put plenty of work into him to ensure he doesn’t play on his own terms. Mayne, Walters and Ballantyne will be on his heels from the opening bounce, so I’d look elsewhere.
MICHAEL BARLOW ($9.00)
He is a big ball winner who gathered 32 disposals and kicked 3 goals against Geelong in the Qualifying Final. If he replicates similar numbers, the Norm Smith Medal will be hanging from his neck. He hasn’t dropped under 20 possessions since Round 2, so a mid 20s-30 disposal game is almost guaranteed.
DAVID MUNDY ($12.00)
At 192cm, he is the big bodied midfielder who will play a very similar role to last year’s Norm Smith Medallist Ryan O’Keefe. He averages 6 clearances a game, the most of anyone to take part in this year’s Grand Final and is coming off an outstanding Preliminary Final. He looks like the value bet to me.
Roughies
RYAN CROWLEY ($31.00)
He isn’t your usual Norm Smith Medallist, nor is he going to gather 30 disposals and kick the match winning goal. He is the flavour of the month though and finally gaining the respect he deserves. If he can completely shut down a player like Sam Mitchell, he isn’t out of the question.
DAVID HALE ($51.00)
Hale has a massive job on his hands against the menacing combination of Aaron Sandilands and Zac Clarke. The 2013 Finals form of Hale has been outstanding having managed to float forward, kick vital goals and take big contested marks. If he can curb the influence of Sandilands and Clarke, then provide the forward presence of previous Finals, he will be in the selector’s minds for sure.
Prediction: DAVID MUNDY (FREMANTLE) @ $12.00
FIRST GOAL KICKER
The first goal kicker is another traditional Grand Final bet we like to punt on. While it is generally a stab in the dark, it does offer some value if you are clever.
Hawthorn has kicked the first goal 18 out of its 24 games. Jarryd Roughead is the clear standout from both clubs, kicking the first goal on 6 different occasions in 2013, justification of his $7.50 favouritism. Jordan Lewis isn’t too far behind having kicked the first goal 4 times and offers juicy odds of $23.00. Cyril Rioli is the other multiple first goal kicker for the Hawks with 2 occurrences.
Fremantle interestingly enough has kicked only 12 first goals from its 24 games, which is quite a low strike rate for a team that has won so many games. Hayden Ballantyne has achieved the feat 3 times, while Nick Suban and Nathan Fyfe have kicked the first goal twice. Suban in particular offers great value at $41.00, but ensure he is named on the field before committing.
Be sure to leave your bets to the very last minute to see what players are drifting forward, while ensure you check the subs and interchange players when they are announced 90 minutes before the match.
