Welcome to The Profits preview of the 2017 AFL Grand Final. And then there were two. The Tigers have overcome trials throughout this year to take a Top 4 spot and win directly through to the Grand Final with two respectable wins. The Crows have also made light work of their opponents at home and are ready to complete their journey to grand final glory. Either way we look at this game, it’s going to be tight and close for large portions and it will be won and lost around the ground in the unique match ups that favour certain teams.
Adelaide VS Richmond
Saturday 30 September – 2.30pm AEST – MCG
Odds: Adelaide $1.72, Richmond $2.15
Line: Adelaide -5.5, Richmond +5.5
Adelaide Crows
The Crows have dominated and done everything asked of them this finals series with two convincing wins at Adelaide Oval against the Giants and the Cats to qualify for the Grand Final.
The Crows recorded similar Inside 50 counts against the Cats and Giants in recent weeks, but it was how they got inside 50 (turnovers) that saw them score a goal every 4.33 inside 50s against the Giants and a goal every 2.48 entries against the Cats. In both games, their opposition had double the inside 50s per goal ratio showing just how well the defensive line is working for the Crows in this finals series.
The Crows haven’t been blowing anyone away with clearances, but they have been very competitive.
Where the Crows continue to excel is finding free space around the ground and working extra hard to score significantly more marks than their opposition, finding the time required to hit chests.
The Crows have been able to break the lines of the top teams during this finals series and if they can stay around the 70% disposal efficiency while kicking straight infront of goal, they will be incredibly hard to beat.
The only negative and question mark over this group is the MCG surface suiting their play style.
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers have over-exceeded expectations this finals series with a win over the Cats in week 1 and a convincing win last week over the Giants. It’s important to note that in both games when the opposition was in contention, both teams lost a key player to their strategy and that has flattered the efforts of the Tigers on the days.
The Tigers lost the clearance numbers in both their wins this finals series, but that won’t be as easy to take advantage of against this Crows line-up who I feel are much better around the bounce of the ball… so to win today the Tigers have to win the clearance count. That will be hard with how poorly they have performed hitouts wise the past few weeks.
A key positive to the Giants game is how they tackle inside 50 and this was a key to their win over the Cats. They also made the most of clearer possession and hit 18 marks Inside 50. They will need to hit at least 10 against this Crows outfit.
With 13 previous games at the MCG all year, the Tigers have not allowed any opposition to kick beyond 89 points and lost by a maximum of 9 points. This is their domain.
Summary
These two teams have a lot going for them. The Tigers will certainly have the crowd on their side and they are proven at this ground. The Crows are the form team of the finals series and this will be a true test today.
Prediction
Adelaide by 19 points
Best Bet
Adelaide to win @ $1.72
First Goal Scorer
Richard Douglas @ $34
Norm Smith Medal
Sam Jacobs @ $23
