Welcome to the AFL Finals Week 3/Preliminary Finals preview. The Preliminary Finals have a lot to live up too as I doubt you could have asked for two better Semi Finals. They were intense, tight and full of emotion. It was the first time with the current finals format that both top four sides have gone out in straight sets. West Coast were the last top four side to lose a Semi Final in 2007, proving just how rare it is that one top four side goes out in straight sets, let alone two. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide were outstanding in their respective matches and thoroughly deserve those Preliminary Final positions. Geelong were outclassed for three and a half quarters, before Tom Hawkins took the match by the throat and nearly got his side home with an inspirational 10 minutes of footy. Time ended up catching the Cats, which isn’t surprising given they were down by 32 points at the 17 minute mark. While Geelong nearly ended up stealing a win, Fremantle had the opportunity to build a significant lead in the first half, but continuously missed kickable shots on goal. A 4 goal lead at half time could have easily been 7-8 for Fremantle and Port took full advantage to kick 12 goals to 5 in the second half, finishing the game strongly like usual.
Much like the Semi Final statistics, the higher seeded teams have an extremely high winning rate. Adelaide were the last side to not take advantage of a home Preliminary Final and week off, going down to West Coast in 2006 at AAMI Stadium. While the Semi Final stat was completely off last week, the Preliminary Final numbers are far more relevant due to the week off in my opinion. There are more sore players than usual at this time of the year and an extra week to freshen up is a huge advantage. A lot has to go right for the Semi Final winners this week.
BEST BET
Sydney @ the -6.5 first quarter line.
PRELIMINARY FINAL
SYDNEY ($1.23) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($4.30)
AT ANZ STADIUM, FRIDAY 19/09, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R4 Sydney 6.12 (48) lost to North Melbourne 13.13 (91) at the SCG
Line: Sydney -27.5, North +27.5
Sydney will be grateful for the week off after a highly contested encounter against Fremantle in the Preliminary Final. It also gives the opportunity for Nick Malceski to get up from his minor hamstring injury without taking any risks. The strain was described to be very similar to Josh Kennedy’s late in the season and while he missed three weeks of footy, the Swans were overly cautious with his recovery to ensure he played finals. Malceski is expected to play and with a clean looking injury list, expect Sydney to go in unchanged. There has been plenty made of the Round 4 clash between these two that North won by 43 points. In conditions that are forecasted to similar on Friday night, North Melbourne were far more effective in the wet. Sydney were in an early season rut at the time and the encounter ended up the side’s third loss in the opening four rounds. Buddy Franklin was still warming to his new surroundings, while Kurt Tippett was absent. One key statistic to take out of that Round 4 clash was the I50 count, which read 66-48 Sydney’s way. Should the Swans have a +18 I50 differential this time around with Franklin in the form he is and Tippett in the side, expect a far different result.
It has been an up and down season, but everything is heading north for the Kangaroos, both literally and metaphorically. The Semi Final win against Geelong could be seen as its best for a decade and the club will now participate in a Preliminary Final for the first time since 2007. North Melbourne came out in the Semi Final far more willing to win the footy and then hold it. Endless running from the likes of Gibson, Dal Santo and Harvey created the required space for North Melbourne defenders to constantly find free men. The hard work was rewarded with Geelong registering its lowest disposal tally since 2006. With Hawkins and Walker kicking 8 goals between them on Friday night, there are some justified questions being directed toward the key position defenders. Thompson held Franklin goalless in Round 4, but dealing with Tippett on top this time around is a completely different proposition. Both Thompson and Grima looked vulnerable against Hawkins late, with Brad Scott tossing up the possibility of bringing Kurt’s brother Joel Tippett back from the wilderness. Brent Harvey is extremely lucky to get off his charge against Selwood, as he should know better after just coming back from an extended suspension. Jamie McMillian hasn’t recovered from a hamstring injury and has been replaced by Ben Jacobs. Tippett, Currie and Mullett have all travelled as emergencies.
As I mentioned earlier, North Melbourne won the only encounter between these two in Round 4, but that was over five months ago. Sydney have only lost two games since that day and are a complete different outfit structurally. The Swans had won the previous 7 encounters between the two before the Round 4 clash, so take of that what you will. Sydney are the team to beat for mine and they should deal with North Melbourne relatively easily. Watch for the usual Sydney fast start.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 31 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Sydney @ the -6.5 first quarter line.
PRELIMINARY FINAL
HAWTHORN ($1.39) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($3.10)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 20/09, 16:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R10 Port Adelaide 15.10 (100) dftd Hawthorn 13.8 (86) at AO
Line: Hawthorn -18.5, Port +18.5
Hawthorn are peaking at the perfect time of the season after blowing Geelong away in the final quarter of the Qualifying Final. It basically dominated every statistic, with a -4 differential for clearances the only key performance indicator loss. The Hawks injury list is relatively short, but they will be sweating on the availability of one small man in particular. Cyril Rioli began training with the main group on Monday, but he hasn’t been named for the do or die clash. There were reports that he was going to be green vested, but the Hawks obviously didn’t believe the potential reoccurrence was worth the risk. Should the Hawks win on Saturday, Rioli will play in the VFL Grand Final. Matt Suckling has also racing against time to be healthy, but has been named despite missing last week’s Young Guns game. Sucklings inclusion has seen veteran Brad Sewell dropped. Hawthorn met an inform Port Adelaide in Round 10 and went down by 14 points. The Hawks were missing the likes of Roughead, Mitchell, Gibson and Lake that night, creating large holes to fill. It surely had an impact on the result.
Port Adelaide looked dead and buried at certain points of the second quarter, but a combination of just keeping touch (once down by 6 goals) and Fremantle missing kickable set shots saw the Power down by only 24 points at half time. As we have become accustomed too, the Port Adelaide run and endurance kicked in during the third quarter and it ran away to a 22 point victory. Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard were instrumental in conjuring the win, kicking 4 goals between them and being involved in defining contests up the field. They have to be the best small forward combination in the competition. Ken Hinkley will be looking to put pressure on the Hawks elite ball users, a strength that most coaches have failed to control for numerous seasons. Hinkley will also be looking to expose Hawthorn going the other way, with run and carry a key ingredient for Port Adelaide’s recent success. The Power’s injury list is basically non-existent and they go into the Preliminary Final unchanged. The last time Port Adelaide played Hawthorn at the MCG, it was humiliated to the tune of 165 points. Don’t expect Ken Hinkley to be bringing up highlights of that game during the week.
Much like the Sydney vs North Melbourne Preliminary final, Port Adelaide won the only clash between these two in 2014, but Hawthorn had dominated the previous five encounters before that. Both clubs are fielding sides extremely close to their best 22, which surely suits Hawthorn due to possessing finals experience on every line. It easily gets forgotten how young this Port Adelaide side is and those immature bodies are sure to be below 100% after consecutive away trips. Expect Hawthorn to deal with the brave Port Adelaide convincingly.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn to win @ the -18.5 line.
