Welcome to the AFL Finals week two preview. From this moment on, there are no second chances. Hawthorn and Sydney have earned the right to host home Preliminary Finals and a week off after defeating Geelong and Fremantle respectively. The Cats and Dockers get another opportunity to snatch a Preliminary Final spot with clashes against Elimination Final winners North Melbourne and Essendon in this week’s Semi Finals. Week one of the Finals was the end of the road for Essendon and Richmond this year, both finding different methods for heartbreaking losses. The Bombers held a lead as large as 33 points at one stage, but couldn’t hold off a fast finishing Kangaroos outfit. Richmond came into the Finals with nine consecutive victories, but that proved to mean nothing as Port Adelaide piled on seven goals in the opening 17 minutes of the game.
History paints a bleak picture in week two for the Elimination Final winners. Collingwood was the last team to win a Semi Final from the bottom four of the eight in 2007 against West Coast and even that was in extra time after the scores were tied at full time. While most Elimination Final winners bring momentum into the Semi Final with good first halves, the top four side generally pulls away in the second half. People can get a little carried away with the Elimination Final winners after week one, but there is usually a reason as to why they weren’t in the top four in the first place.
BEST BET
Geelong @ the -1.5 point second quarter line.
SEMI FINAL
GEELONG ($1.75) VS NORTH MELBOURNE ($2.12)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 12/09, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R19 North Melbourne 10.19 (79) lost to Geelong 16.15 (111) at ES
Line: Geelong -4.5, North +4.5
There are plenty of question marks hanging over the Cats coming into this Semi Final. Hawthorn dealt with Geelong relatively easily considering the close recent history. Geelong had a small +4 differential victory for clearances on the night, but were beaten for nearly every other key statistic. The constant pressure and physicality we have become accustomed to over the last few years just wasn’t there and while the tackle count reached 59, it was hovering at an extremely low 10 late in the second quarter. Then there were the injuries. Steve Johnson and Steven Motlop didn’t look right, while Hamish McIntosh was left metres behind David Hale on numerous occasions and it isn’t a surprise to hear he has had further surgery on that troublesome knee. It has seen Chris Scott react at the selection table and name fit players, with Johnson and obviously McIntosh both ruled out. It leaves a massive job for Blicavs and Walker in the ruck against Goldstein, while Allen Christensen is still battling with that back and hasn’t been named. Motlop is the only positive for the Geelong and will take his place in the side. The timing of these injuries couldn’t be worse for Chris Scott, but there is still plenty of quality in the Cats line up. Backing stars that weren’t 100% didn’t work last week, so I think naming healthy players is a smarter move.
North Melbourne looked dead and buried at the 5 minute mark of the third quarter when Paul Chapman kicked a goal to give Essendon a comprehensive 33 point lead. From there, the Kangaroos kicked seven goals for the rest of the quarter and another five final quarter majors to post a memorable 12 point victory. Ben Brown had a career defining match, kicking four goals including three during that all important third quarter comeback. Drew Petrie was quiet for a majority of the night, but came to life at the 24 minute mark of the last quarter to kick two goals in a minute. Brent Harvey is available to play in the Semi Final after serving his three match suspension, which will see North Melbourne field its strongest side of the season. Expect North to continue shortening right up to the first bounce.
The second and third quarters will be fascinating on Friday night as their records are basically polar opposites for those periods of the game. Geelong holds the advantage during the second quarter with 16 (wins) – 1 (draw) – 6 (losses) compared to North’s 7-1-15, but the Roos up the ante in the third with a 17-6 record, while the Cats drop off to 8-15. Geelong’s first halves have been the difference in the two encounters between the sides this year, but can they hold off a faster finishing and healthier North Melbourne? Steve Johnson missed the Round 10 clash between the two earlier in the season which saw Bartel and Kelly moved back to the midfield, gathering 55 possessions between them. Don’t be surprised to see a similar move.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Geelong @ the -1.5 point second quarter line.
SEMI FINAL
FREMANTLE ($1.60) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($2.40)
AT PATERSONS STADIUM, SATURDAY 13/09, 19:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R23 Fremantle 16.9 (105) dftd Port Adelaide 14.13 (97) at PS
Line: Fremantle -10.5, Port Adelaide +10.5
There wasn’t much that went the Dockers way on its trip to Sydney, but it would have flown home feeling relatively satisfied with the effort despite the result. Fremantle had to fly to Sydney a day later than it had hoped after the original flight was cancelled, which wouldn’t have suited Ross Lyon’s strict routines. The Dockers were more than competitive for the first three quarters and after two quick goals to open the final quarter, Fremantle found itself only 10 points down with plenty of time on the clock. Buddy Franklin then killed the Dockers momentum with two spectacular goals within a couple of minutes. Fremantle won both the contested possession and clearance counts against the Swans, but just couldn’t quite minimise the inside 50s as hoped. Unfortunately the injury situation hasn’t improved for Fremantle, with Hayden Ballantyne sustaining a broken jaw and is confirmed nonstarter. There are also question marks on Michael Barlow, who returned to Perth on crutches.
The opening 17 minutes of the Port Adelaide vs Richmond Elimination Final was some of the most spectacular football we have witnessed for the entire season. Unfortunately for the travelling Richmond supporters, it was all one way as Port Adelaide piled on seven goals to leave any player in a yellow and black jumper flat footed. It is difficult to know exactly how good Port Adelaide was, as the Tigers could only manage a mere three tackles during that seven goal blitz. Were the Power just dining out on a side that had used up all its energy sources for survival over the prior two months or were they really as good as they looked? As we saw earlier in the season, Port Adelaide look at their best when they are carrying the footy and has racked up 75 running bounces over the last three weeks. Matt White is the only injury concern with a small fracture in his jaw, but will travel with the team.
There is plenty to take out of the Round 23 encounter, especially considering the stakes at play. Fremantle kicked nine consecutive goals to lead by 38 points at the 13 minute mark of the last quarter, before Port Adelaide stormed home to give the Dockers a fright. If Port are within striking distance at three quarter time, the players will feel they can win. In saying that, I can’t imagine Ross Lyon allowing goals to flow so freely again. He’ll tighten the scoring and attempt to choke the Powers running.
FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Port Adelaide @ the +2.5 fourth quarter line
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
