Welcome to the AFL Week Two Finals preview. It was an amazing start to the 2013 Finals Series where we were treated to tight, physical, intense and especially dramatic football. While Hawthorn blew Sydney away in the second half on Friday night, the three encounters that followed were all classics in their own right. Firstly, Fremantle did what most thought was close to impossible by bringing down Geelong at its Simonds Stadium fortress. Saturday night saw the gutsy performance from Port Adelaide who replicated its Round 14 feats against Collingwood, this time at the MCG. Sunday Afternoon brought the scenario that all Richmond supporters feared, a capitulation in its first Final for 12 years. The Tigers led by over 5 goals during the third quarter, before Mick Malthouse’s men stormed back into the game to run away with a famous 20 point victory. It was only the second time that 3 lower seeded teams have won in the first week of September since the current Final Eight System was adopted in 2000.
The weekend results mean that Hawthorn and Fremantle get the week off and have earned the right to home Preliminary Finals. The Fremantle victory has completely shaken the Finals up, with Geelong now matched on the same side of the draw as Hawthorn. The Hawthorn vs Geelong Grand Final that most expected is now an impossibility, with the winner of Geelong vs Port Adelaide playing the Hawks in the Preliminary Final. The Dockers find themselves in the best position of the club’s 19 season history. It will go into its first home Preliminary Final as a short priced favourite against the winner of Sydney vs Carlton.
The Semi Finals generally see the two Top 4 sides bounce back from their week one losses. In fact, there hasn’t been a Top 4 side go out in straight sets since West Coast in 2007. The recent trend should continue, but both Geelong and Sydney will be feeling slightly nervous by the form of their respective opponents.
Best Bet
Geelong to win the 3rd Quarter @ the -6.5 Line ($1.87)
GEELONG ($1.22) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($4.50)
SEMI FINAL AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 13/09, 19:50
PREVIOUS 2013 ENCOUNTERS:
R9, Port Adelaide 9.14 (68) lost to Geelong 18.8 (116) at AS
R20, Geelong 20.9 (129) defeated Port Adelaide 16.8 (104) at SS
Line: Geelong -26.5, Port Adelaide +26.5
After hosting a home Qualifying Final, Geelong finds itself in the unfamiliar situation of playing a home Semi Final due to the unexpected loss to Fremantle at Simonds Stadium. Port Adelaide has an opportunity to slay its second giant in consecutive weeks at the MCG. The winner will take on Hawthorn at the MCG the following Friday night in the Preliminary Final.
It was a dark day down at Kardinia Park on Saturday afternoon for the Cats, with the celebration of its first ever Final at Simonds Stadium ruined by the determined Fremantle Dockers. Geelong was embarrassed at the stoppages as Ross Lyon’s men dominated the clearance and hit out statistics. The Cats lost the clearances 12-36 after quarter time, while Aaron Sandilands and Zac Clarke recorded 53 hit outs, including a mammoth 16 to advantage. It was a match defining dominance. As a result, Trent West will considered to strengthen the ruck stocks and has been named as an emergency. Injuries are sure to hurt the Cats this week. Corey Enright is an enormous loss, with a knee injury potentially keeping him out for the remainder of the season. The multiple All Australian will be replaced by the experienced Josh Hunt. Tom Hawkins was a late withdrawal for the Qualifying Final and is still a day by day prospect with his lingering back complaint. If he doesn’t get up, 20 year old full forward Shane Kersten could make his debut after kicking 36 goals from 11 games in the VFL this season, but hasn’t been named in the 22 or emergency list.
There is a perception that Port Adelaide has nothing to lose from this contest as most see them far exceeding expectations. But at the end of the day, Port as just as close to a Premiership as Geelong and this is what Ken Hinkley will be promoting to his young side. Excluding the 2004 Premiership, last week’s Elimination Final was one of the greatest in the club’s history. Collingwood had 15 more inside 50s, but the Power took a club record 27 intercept marks and rebounded with great efficiency. Port Adelaide are boasting a near non-existent injury list, which means any team changes are unlikely with so many contributors last week. If the Power were to cause another upset, it couldn’t be in better shape to do so.
Geelong got a massive jump on Port in both encounters during the season, kicking 7 and 6 goals in the first terms of each game. Port Adelaide must start well if it wants to be in the contest. Geelong is also the strongest 3rd quarter side in the competition, losing only 4 for the season and conceding a miserly average of 16.91 points. Port Adelaide on the other hand struggle in the 3rd quarter, losing it 14 times. The Cats kicked a combined 12 goals in 3rd quarters against Port this year and with minimal value around this week, the Geelong 3rd quarter line of -6.5 looks outstanding value at $1.87.
Geelong rebound for defeats better than most and it is difficult seeing Port Adelaide back up twice, despite its credentials.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
SYDNEY ($1.37) VS CARLTON (3.20)
SEMI FINAL AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 14/09, 19:45
PREVIOUS 2013 ENCOUNTER: R14, Sydney 8.17 (65) defeated Carlton 5.13 (43) at the SCG
Line: Sydney -20.5, Carlton +20.5
The Swans get an opportunity to answer the many doubts being thrown in their direction. It comes up against the lucky but now respected Carlton side that will be looking to take full advantage of its golden opportunity. The winner will take on Fremantle in Perth on Saturday week for a place in the Grand Final.
The Swans must overcome a 3 game losing streak to keep its 2013 season alive. Defeats against Hawthorn twice and Geelong aren’t necessarily disasters, but the waning trends are certain to be concerning John Longmire. It became even more worrying against the Hawks on Friday night, especially in the 2nd half. Sydney recorded 92 less disposals, 71 less marks and 16 less inside 50s, while conceding 20 marks inside Hawthorn’s forward 50. It was also 7.4% less effective with ball in hand compared to the slick Hawks. Hawthorn also had a competition low 45 turnovers, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the Swans defensive pressure. The positive is that the stoppage numbers are still good, but the scrappy kicks from the won clearances are getting picked off and ran down the ground far too easily. The unhealthy reliance on Kurt Tippett continues. Tippett is the most kicked to target in the competition, with 41% of Sydney entrances directed to the former Crow. The absence of Sam Reid is hurting and making the Swans forward structure far too predictable. Jarrad McVeigh is battling to be fit with a knee injury and Ben McGlynn will miss with a calf strain. In a further blow for Sydney, Adam Goodes’ late run for selection has failed and he is now unlikely to be seen for the rest of the season.
How would the Blues be feeling right now? Their September dreams appeared shot before the AFL offered a golden ticket to the 9th placed team by suspending Essendon from the Finals. Carlton then had to defeat Port Adelaide in the last game at AAMI Stadium and their chances again looked gone when trialling by 29 points at three quarter time. An inspired comeback coupled with the blessing of a Matthew Broadbent poster saw the impossible a reality. To then hijack what many expected to be Richmond’s day, it is one of the more unique passages to a Semi Final in AFL/VFL history. Chris Judd was brilliant in his return to the side against the Tigers, despite not being 100% fit, while Bryce Gibbs arguably produced his greatest performance in the navy blue by gathering 12 clearances and 18 contested possessions. Brock McLean was an extremely late withdrawal with his quad injury, paving the way for Nick Duigan to play and kick a memorable 4 goals. McLean has been named as an emergency and could be a late inclusion.
I expect the Swans to bounce back, but I feel the result will be tighter than the odds suggest. It is difficult to take much out of the Round 14 encounter as the intense rain reduced the match to a contested slop. The Blues would have high confidence levels and have no reason to fear the reigning Premier.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
ALL AUSTRALIAN TEAM
The Four’N Twenty All Australian Team is to be named on Monday night, so to generate a bit of discussion, I decided to update my side from the midyear review.
As you would have heard, the nominated squad of 40 has been announced to much uproar. The likes of Michael Hibberd, Steve Johnson, Tom Liberatore, Michael Barlow, Ryan Crowley, Pearce Hanley and Jack Riewoldt all missed selection. The below side is based only on the nominated 40, but it certainly would have included Michael Hibberd and perhaps a couple others had I given myself unlimited flexibility.
Here is the team in position:
B: Scott Thompson (NM) Eric Mackenzie (WCE) Corey Enright (GEEL)
HB: Jarrad McVeigh (SYD) Harry Taylor (GEEL) Luke Hodge (HAW) (VC)
C: Ryan Griffen (WB) Joel Selwood (GEEL)(C) Kieren Jack (SYD)
HF: Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) Nick Riewoldt (STK) Chad Wingard (PA)
F: Chris Mayne (FRE) Jarryd Roughead (HAW) Lindsay Thomas (NM)
R: Will Minson (WB) Gary Ablett (GC) Scott Pendlebury (COLL)
INT: Travis Boak (PA) Dane Swan (COLL) Travis Cloke (COLL) Nathan Fyfe (FRE)
Of course there are always going to be unlucky players, but it is next to impossible to fit in and please everyone. If you have any questions regarding this All Australian side or would like to share your own, drop me a tweet on @AFL_TheProfits.
