Welcome to the week one AFL Finals preview. The sun is shining, the grass is greener and the footy is just about to get a whole lot more serious. September has arrived! We are set for a massive finals series and more importantly the premiership race is wide open. Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong have all finished on 17 wins after 23 rounds, while Fremantle has managed to secure that final top four spot in a tight clash against the Power. These four sides now hold the right to play for a home Preliminary Final and an all-important week off.
The biggest winner of Round 23 was Richmond who held its top eight position with a famous away victory against premiership favourite Sydney. All football followers excluding Sydney fans became a Tiger supporter for two hours and they kept everyone on the edge of their seats. Port Adelaide and North Melbourne earned the rights to home Elimination Finals, but Essendon would be thrilled playing at the MCG despite finishing seventh on the ladder.
Week one of the finals generally sets the tone for the remainder of September, as every Qualifying Final winner since 2007 has reached the Grand Final. West Coast were the last side to lose a Qualifying Final and go on to reach the Grand Final, after going down to Sydney by a point in the first finals week of 2006. It is going to be a fascinating weekend of footy.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide @ -4.5 final quarter line
QUALIFYING FINAL
HAWTHORN ($1.52) VS GEELONG ($2.60)
AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 05/09, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R22 Hawthorn 14.10 (94) dftd Geelong 11.5 (71) at the MCG
Line: Hawthorn -12.5, Geelong +12.5
Hawthorn had a close to perfect preparation for Friday night’s Qualifying Final with a comfortable victory against an injury ravaged Collingwood by 65 points. The ominous forward structure of Gunston and Roughead heads into September in top form, as they kicked nine goals between them. The Hawks also had the opportunity to rest its skipper Luke Hodge, who should benefit enormously from a freshening up. The biggest concern to come out of the game was a corked hip to Brian Lake, who will be required for the big job on Tom Hawkins. Lake is likely to saddle up, but Matthew Suckling is out due to a knee injury. Ben Stratton and Brad Hill also come straight back into the side.
Geelong have also had comfortable victory coming into week one of the finals, dealing with Brisbane to the tune of 62 points. The pleasing aspect to come out of the game for Chris Scott was the four quarter effort of his troops, with the Cats kicking at least five goals in each quarter. Tom Hawkins looks primed for a big finals series with a personal best 7 goals against the Lions. After struggling with a back complaint this time last year, he goes into September as the Cats most important player. Steve Johnson has been running all week and is considered a certainty to start after missing the last few rounds of the home and away season. Motlop and McIntosh return after having a final round rest, but Allen Christensen hasn’t got up and is a big loss for the Cats.
This great modern rivalry sees another September encounter and expect it to be fierce. I doubt there is much to take out of the bizarre Round 22 clash that was a genuine match of two halves and dominated by uncontested possession. There will be much harder hits at the stoppages this time around, which is where I expect the game to be won or lost. Hawthorn go into this game with the greater confidence and an extra days break, justifying its $1.52 favouritism. The start of the second half will be vital, as the Cats can’t afford the trending third quarter lapses.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 7 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Hawthorn @ the -3.5 third quarter line
QUALIFYING FINAL
SYDNEY ($1.46) VS FREMANTLE ($2.80)
AT ANZ STADIUM, SATURDAY 06/09, 14:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R5 Sydney 13.14 (92) dftd Fremantle 11.9 (75) at the SCG
Line: Sydney -13.5, Fremantle +13.5
I wouldn’t be taking too much notice of the Swans loss to Richmond. The fact that it rested Buddy Franklin at the last minute probably gives an indication of the Sydney coaching staff’s mind set going into the Round 23 encounter. In saying that, John Longmire was furious to be down by 33 points at the 15 minute mark of the first quarter and demanded his side to lift its intensity at quarter time. It was enough to kick his side into action and get back into the game, but the Tigers managed to hold on. The Swans are set to be boosted by some key inclusions for the Qualifying Final, but there are sure to be doubts on the conditioning of some stars. Buddy isn’t an issue, but Kennedy, Bird and McGlynn haven’t played full games since Round 20. All three apparently trained well during the week and have been named, while Mike Pike returns from illness.
The Dockers rightfully go into an away Qualifying Final full of confidence, a year on from its famous victory against Geelong at Simonds Stadium. It was a result that will hold the test of time for Fremantle, creating a no fear attitude to any opposition at any venue. Giving Ross Lyon’s men an even greater mental advantage is playing at ANZ Stadium, which doesn’t hold the same significance as the Swan’s spiritual SCG home. Where the Dockers are weakened is in defence, as key defenders Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin are unavailable due to injury. They are critical outs, with Zac Dawson and Alex Silvagni left to fight Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett. It is an area that leaves Fremantle extremely vulnerable. Nat Fyfe is obviously a big inclusion, while Ross Lyon has interestingly selected a second ruckman in Jonathon Griffin.
There are a lot of people who think that Fremantle can give Sydney a scare here. But to do that, the influence of Franklin and Tippett must be minimal. We saw what Jay Schulz managed to do to Fremantle’s defence last week and Sydney possess the best tall forward line in the business. I think the Dockers best fight is on the other side of the draw.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 23 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Kurt Tippett to kick 3 goals or more @ $2.40
ELIMINATION FINAL
NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.70) VS ESSENDON ($2.20)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 06/09, 19:15
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R1 North Melbourne 9.6 (60) lost to Essendon 15.9 (99) at ES
Line: North -6.5, Essendon +6.5
Which North Melbourne is going to turn up? That is the question going through punter’s minds, supporter’s minds and most importantly Brad Scott’s mind. A soft draw home has seen the Kangaroos win the last four games on the trot, but don’t let that fool you. The best of North is good enough to beat the premiership contenders, as we saw against Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle. But the bad reared its ugly head far too often as proven by losses to Gold Coast, Carlton and Brisbane. Has the weaker run home conjured the required sense of consistency for this talented side or has it potentially created a false indication of where the side is at? North has earned the right to a home final, but would have much preferred to play at its traditional Etihad home ground after only setting foot on the MCG twice this season. The biggest injury concern for the Roos is Lachie Hansen, who was subbed off in his comeback game and hasn’t been named. Goldstein, Firrito, Greenwood, Thomas and McDonald all return after being managed in Round 23. Wouldn’t North love to have Brent Harvey available?
Essendon could only managed a draw against Carlton, but enters September with a solid month of form under its belt. Wins against West Coast and Gold Coast were crucial to secure a finals berth, while playing North Melbourne at the MCG is nearly the perfect scenario the club could have wished for. First quarters have generally been a strength for the Bombers this year, but it can’t afford giving a 5 goal head start in a final like it did against Carlton. Whether Mark Thompson’s side came out complacent knowing it was playing finals or not, the slow start almost cost the club an interstate trip this week. Jake Carlisle has been ruled out with that hamstring, leaving a forward line led by Joe Daniher.
Amazingly, these two sides haven’t met at the MCG since 2002. It is hard to take too much out of the Round 1 encounter considering it was nearly six months ago. Essendon played a form of keepings off that day, but you’d expect Brad Scott to be all over that tactic this time around. The MCG is sure to hold an advantage toward the Bombers, as North’s two games at the venue against Collingwood and Melbourne were hardly impressive and didn’t naturally suit the side’s style. I feel Essendon offer value head to head.
ESSENDON TO WIN BY 16 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Essendon to win head to head @ $2.20
ELIMINATION FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE ($1.43) VS RICHMOND ($2.90)
AT THE ADELAIDE OVAL, SUNDAY 07/09, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R17 Richmond 19.12 (126) dftd Port Adelaide 16.10 (106) at ES
Line: Port -15.5, Richmond +15.5
Port Adelaide was brave in its battle for a top four spot against Fremantle, fighting back from being 38 points down at the 14 minute of the last quarter to only go down by 8 points. The Power had 14 more inside 50s than Fremantle, on top of a comfortable +8 differential for clearances, but a nine goal run from the Dockers ultimately finished the Powers chances. The positive to come out of the game was that run and carry is almost back to the early season highs and the final quarter endurance is beginning to kick in again. Chad Wingard is showing signs that his form has turned to the good with another impressive performance, while Jay Schulz is back in the goals. The injury list is light which will see Port Adelaide go into this game with its best 22.
Richmond have stormed into September with its ninth consecutive victory and a belief it can go all the way after an away win against Sydney. Some described it as the best moment in their lifetimes as Richmond supporters and the Tiger army is now on its way to Adelaide to create an even better atmosphere than that made in Sydney. The Tigers shouldn’t be daunted by a cut throat knock out final as they have been threatened by elimination for the past nine weeks, but the emotion, travel and effort put in over recent weeks is sure to have drained a lot of energy. The adrenaline of last week is sure to have the Tigers up and about early, but it will be interesting to see how long it can last.
Richmond dealt with Port Adelaide comfortably in Round 17, but the Power were arguably bottoming out in its form slump at that point in time. Port Adelaide has lifted its output in the last month and look primed for a home Elimination Final. This will be tight, but I feel Port will have the greater legs to run this game out.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 9 POINTS
Suggested Bet
Port Adelaide @ -4.5 final quarter line
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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