Welcome to the Week 1 Finals Preview. The September action is upon us and we are spoilt with four cracking games of footy. Carlton managed to secure the final top 8 position by storming to victory against the tiring Port Adelaide outfit after trailing by 29 points at three quarter time. It has set up a blockbuster Elimination Final against rival Richmond, which is sure to draw a crowd of close to 90,000. It will be Richmond’s first Finals appearance since 2001, which will have its success starved supporters counting down the minutes to the opening bounce.
We also have a venue making its Finals debut in Geelong’s Simonds Stadium. The AFL has a unique situation where four Victorian teams have earned the right to host home games in week 1 of the Finals. The MCG can’t logistically host four games over the one weekend, which means the AFL needed to find another venue. This saw Simonds Stadium enter the conversation, as the recently upgraded facilities catered perfectly for a low drawing interstate side like Fremantle. Of course Ross Lyon and the Dockers hierarchy were against the idea, but every club has the right to a home Final if the demanded attendance numbers can be satisfied.
There is some nice value getting around this weekend. Sportsbet have an attractive promotion when you place a head to head bet where they will refund your bet if your team loses by 18 points or less. Make sure you keep that in mind.
Best Bet
Carlton to win @ $2.65 (with Sportsbet 18 point or less loss refund promotion)
HAWTHORN ($1.54) VS SYDNEY ($2.55)
QUALIFYING FINAL AT THE MCG, FRIDAY 06/09, 19:50
2013 ENCOUNTERS:
R23, Sydney 16.4 (100) lost to Hawthorn 17.10 (112) at ANZ
R7, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) defeated Sydney 12.10 (82) at MCG
Line: Hawthorn -10.5, Sydney +10.5
The 2012 Grand Final match up gets its third run for the 2013 season, this time in an all important Qualifying Final. The winner of this game goes through to week 3 and earns a home Preliminary Final. The loser plays the winner of Richmond vs Carlton in a knockout Semi Final.
It is generally a rare occasion where you see two teams play each other in consecutive weeks, but it has occurred this week for Hawthorn and Sydney. It is impossible to know if either club has kept any strategies up their sleeves, but based on contested possession and tackles, it appears that the Round 23 contest had genuine intent.
The major story leading into this clash is the suspension of Lance Franklin. A careless bump to Nick Malceski that resulted in head contact has seen Franklin suspended for 1 week on an early guilty plea. The bump was assessed as negligent, despite many believing the decision was closer to reckless, sparing Franklin an extra week. Cyril Rioli has been named to return, but is still in doubt for the clash. He was a no show at Hawthorn training on Thursday.
It was a much more encouraging performance for the Swans against Hawthorn. Previous weeks suggested that the reigning Premier was beginning to hit the wall, but most important KPIs were back to their season averages. Kurt Tippett is a certainty to return to the line up, while Dan Hannebery will be given until Friday afternoon to prove his fitness. Lewis Jetta has been named for the first time in weeks and is likely to be given the green vest.
The Hawks appear to have the Swans measure at the moment. Alastair Clarkson’s men didn’t play near their best last week, but they’ll up the ante Friday night despite the potential of no Buddy or Cyril.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 26 POINTS
GEELONG ($1.37) VS FREMANTLE ($3.20)
QUALIFYING FINAL AT SIMONDS STADIUM, SATURDAY 07/09, 14:20
2013 ENCOUNTER: R14, Geelong 11.19 (85) defeated Fremantle 7.2 (44) at SS
Line: Geelong -19.5, Fremantle +19.5
The AFL has scheduled the first Final in Geelong since 1897 at Corio Oval. It will be a momentous occasion for the City and gives a real indication of how far the club has come since the debt darkened days of 1999.The winner goes through to week 3 and hosts a home Preliminary Final, while the loser will take on the winner of Collingwood vs Port Adelaide in a home Semi Final.
It is difficult to take much out of the Round 14 encounter at the same venue. Fremantle were without Michael Barlow, David Mundy, Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Lee Spurr. Geelong took full advantage of the omissions by producing the greatest contested possession differential ever recorded of +62, restricted Fremantle to only 7 inside 50s after half time and had 102 more disposals. The inclusion of all five players is sure to help even out those lopsided statistics, but that doesn’t lessen Geelong’s record at Simonds Stadium. The Cats have won 43 of the last 44 games there, with the only loss against Sydney in 2011.
Ross Lyon implemented the unpopular tactic of resting a host of stars against St Kilda to be fresh for this final. It saw the Saints rack up an amazing 520 disposals, 229 than the young Dockers outfit. Luke McPharlin is in a race against time to be fit for Saturday Afternoon, despite being named. He is arguably the most vital Docker structurally and is sure to be underdone even if he does play. Michael Johnson still has tightness in the calf and won’t make the trip, making McPharlin’s availability even more important. Clancee Pearce has suffered a calf injury, putting his finals campaign in doubt.
If the game was played at Etihad Stadium, it would be difficult to split. Unfortunately for the Dockers, it isn’t. The Cats will cruise to victory in its first Final at home.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
COLLINGWOOD ($1.26) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($4.00)
ELIMINATION FINAL AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 07/09, 19:45
2013 ENCOUNTER: R14, Port 13.8 (86) defeated Collingwood 7.9 (51) at AAMI
Line: Collingwood -25.5, Port +25.5
This is regarded as the most lopsided Final of the week, but we really shouldn’t be underestimating Port Adelaide after a year of consistently proving doubters wrong. The Round 14 encounter against Collingwood is the perfect example, with many doubting it could back up the win against reigning Premier Sydney from the week before. The winner of this game will play the loser of Geelong vs Fremantle.
It wasn’t the ideal end to the Home and Away fixtures for Collingwood with a loss against North Melbourne. Although the game certainly didn’t show evidence of being a hard hitting contest, with contested possession and tackling numbers extremely low. It suggests that Collingwood weren’t overly worried about the points and more hell bent on ensuring that the players got through without harm. Harry O’Brien has recovered from an illness, while Luke Ball has been named despite a lingering calf injury. Nathan Brown and Quinten Lynch are expected to play after injury scares against North Melbourne.
Port Adelaide is certainly in a form slump. It was smashed by Fremantle two weeks ago, while it let go what should have been an unassailable 29 point led at three quarter time against Carlton. It registered only 115 contested possessions last week, down from an average of 138.7 for the season. Its tackling numbers were also down approximately 14%. Hamish Hartlett, Robbie Gray and Alipate Carlile are enormous inclusions.
It is difficult to ignore the Port Adelaide form lies, but you know they won’t give up. Collingwood look primed for September and should get through.
COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 33 POINTS
RICHMOND ($1.50) VS CARLTON ($2.65)
ELIMINATION FINAL AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 07/09, 15:20
2013 ENCOUNTERS:
R21, Richmond 14.12 (96) defeated Carlton 16.10 (106) at MCG
R1, Carlton 14.17 (101) lost to Richmond 14.22 (106) at MCG
Line: Richmond -14.5, Carlton +14.5
This is the massive blockbuster of the week. The winner will take on the loser of Hawthorn vs Sydney in an away Semi Final.
This is the game that everyone involved with Richmond has been waiting for since 2001. It has been a particularly lean period for the Tigers, so it must take advantage the rare opportunity. The Essendon game was a bizarre preparation for the Tigers leading into the Finals, with absolutely nothing to play for. The fact that Essendon were not interested going in hard for the ball made things stranger, with the Bomber collecting only 83 contested possessions for the match. Richmond will be boosted by the return of Jack Riewoldt, Shane Edwards and Chris Newman.
How have Carlton got themselves in this position? Firstly, it copped a lucky break with Essendon being banned from Finals. It looked out of September contention again when it trailed Port Adelaide by 29 points at three quarter time before a Marc Murphy inspired final term saw the Blues get home by a point. There are some big names pushing to be fit for Sunday with Chris Judd, Heath Scotland and Brock McLean all named. If all three get up and are close to full fitness, they are sure to be influential.
Richmond will dread having to match up against Carlton again, especially only three weeks after giving up a good start to the Blues in Round 21. Carlton has won 10 of the last 11 encounters, with Richmond’s 5 point Round 1 win the only exception. The Blues look great value, especially with the Sportsbet 18 point or less loss refund promotion.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 11 POINTS
