Welcome to The Profits 3rd week of the Finals analysis with Drew and Euan. This is Preliminary finals with the winner of each game going into the GRAND FINAL! With the final four teams set to make their mark in September, we have two very exciting games ahead of us! Short priced premiership favourites Hawthorn play Adelaide on Saturday while the Magpies (US VS THEM) fly up to Sydney to battle the Swans. Which Bird will reign supreme? We love to hear your feedback and thoughts so tweet @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet! Good luck and happy punting!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Sydney Swans ($1.63) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.30) – ANZ Stadium, Friday, September 21, 7.50pm
Recent clashes: Collingwood 12.6 (78) d Sydney Swans 9.16 (70), round 20, 2012 at ANZ Stadium.
Game preview: Sydney have won 7 of 9 games this year at the SCG with loses to Hawthorn and Adelaide. At ANZ they are 2/3 with wins over GWS but a loss to Collingwood. Some will try and tell you that this being played in Sydney is a huge advantage but the stats don’t suggest that. There is still a huge question mark over the Swans having lose 3 of their last 4 games going into the finals to the Pies, Hawks and Cats (only win over Dogs). The Swans weren’t super impressive the first week in Adelaide either having less shots on goals than the Crows. The different was how accurate the Swans were. Collingwood came into the finals with similar form lines having lost 2 of their last 3 to the Roos and Eagles. They overcame these short falls to beat the Eagles last week but there are questions also over the fitness of their team. Swans have no real injury concerns and going into the game with a break going into this Blockbuster clash they will have the fresher legs. The Swans have also earned the home ground advantage, finishing third on the ladder and then knocking off the Crows in Adelaide in their qualifying final.
Magpies proved there worth against West Coast beating the odds convincingly last round. The Pies had 25 more disposals than the Eagles and 20 more tackles. Traveling for Collingwood has never been a real issue with their record at ANZ Stadium being beater than most with 7 straight wins at Sydney Olympic Park, and 11 consecutive victories overall against the Swans. Not to mention the last time these two teams faced-off Collingwood were victorious by 8 points. This game can be put down to the flip of the coin if you like but in reality, Swans have had time to study the tactics of the opposing team and is not battered and bruised from the week before. Expect a tight and ferocious contest with several lead changes!
Swans by 15
Line: Swans -8.5
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.12) vs Adelaide Crows ($6.40) – MCG, Saturday September 22, 5.15pm
Recent clashes: Hawthorn 21.14 (140) d Adelaide 12.12 (84), round three, 2012 at the MCG
Game preview: Same time last year Hawks lost to Magpies by just three points – after leading by 16 points at the start of the final term and failed to make the Grand Final. However this time round the situation tells a completely different story. Hawks are the team to beat this year and the only team that seems up to the same standard is Sydney due to tactics. One game break to rest players and expected return midfielders Jordan Lewis and Clinton Young will give the Hawks the depth needed to get the job done. Record is in favour of Hawks, and with good reason. Winning 13 of their past 14 games and storming home against Collingwood a fortnight ago.
On the other side of the coin – Adelaide have been struggling to get on the board early in their games with a woeful start two weeks back vs the Swans and similar against Freo last week. They ground down Freo with some accurate kicking while they couldn’t kick straight the week before. The Crows will need to kick 80% in front of goal to have a chance here but that chance is very slim vs a in form Hawthorn. Adelaide defeated a rampant Fremantle in the final quarter, delivering a message that Crows should not be underestimated! Already achieved 2012 NAB Cup winners with an unbeaten pre-season record. It will be hard work for Hawthorn to contain the Crows dangerous tall forward duo of Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett, and their tough, explosive midfield with Dangerfield and Thompson creating havoc. Expect high intensity and final quarter blow out!
Hawks by 24
Line: Crows +38.5
Betting
Crows +38.5 at $1.91
Sydney 1-39 at $2.20
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet
