AFL is back for another year! What an off season it has been for The Profits team with a very successful summer of racing!
We will continue our racing but will try and focus more on the AFL as the season goes on. As always, we will be reviewing each game on a Thursday evening (Wednesday this week).
No statistics will be used for the first round due to NAB cup data being inaccurate due to strategy testing and rookies being played.
As always, we love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Richmond Tigers ($2.57) vs Carlton Blues ($1.55) – Thursday 7:45pm AEDT – 29/03/2012
Recent clashes: Carlton have won 8 of the last 9 including a Round 15 of last year 97 point win.
Game preview: Carlton and Richmond have had opposite preseasons. Richmond have played near full-strength teams in the lead up to the start of the season where as Carlton have played 3/4 full teams. Richmond have been winning games and Carlton were very disappointing. If you were to look at this game last year, you would find Carlton at $1.25 to beat Richmond, yet we find them at $1.55. It’s interesting that the AFL website are leading with ‘Near full-strength tigers to take on undermanned Blues’ when Carlton are playing no ‘new’ players yet Richmond are lining up with two newbies. The main Carlton players expected to miss round one are Laidler, Walker and potentially Warnock. Carlton are severely underrated by the punters in this game and also the tipsters with only 73% of tips falling their way. The quality of the Carlton team will shine through and Richmond will start the year as they finished last year. Bet of the game is for Jack Riewoldt to kick a goal at $1.20 with the TAB!
Carlton by 23 points
Hawthorn Hawks ($1.65) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.32) – Friday 7:50pm AEDT – 30/03/2012
Recent clashes: Hawthorn have won 5 of the last 7 clashes but lost Round 15 of last year by 41.
Game preview: Hawthorn come into this game with a near full-strength team compared to Collingwood who are predicted to name an extremely undermanned team. Both teams had good preseasons trying to get the most out of their young kids. We have been very keen on Hawthorn to win this game over the last two weeks and that has not changed. Many of those in the media are suggesting this may be a one sided game but it will be anything but that with Swan, Pendles, Thomas and Cloke to name a few that are absolute stars that are lining up. Apart from Ben Johnston, the loses to the team are from outside their top 10 players. For those looking to bet in this game, all of the value from Hawthorn is gone. We got on two weeks ago at $2.20 for the win and it is now into $1.65 which is slightly below where it should be.
Hawthorn by 12 points
Melbourne Demons ($1.45) vs Brisbane Lions ($2.90) – Saturday 1:45pm AEDT – 31/03/2012
Recent clashes: Melbourne have won 4 of the last 7 clashes and the last clash was Round 3 and Melbourne won by 11. Melbourne is 3/0 in last 5 years at MCG.
Game preview: Melbourne have had a emotional week with the loss of Jim Stynes. Up until Jim’s passing, we were quite keen on this game to be an upset as Brisbane had showed enough in the preseason but with the passing of Jim, the Demon players will come out and give that extra 10% to get their team over the line in his memory. Don’t be fooled by Brisbane having no Johnno Brown in the lineup, they still have a strong squad led by their ever improving midfield and Leunenberger should dominate the ruck contests.
Melbourne by 7 points
Gold Coast Suns ($4.30) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.24) – Saturday 3:45pm AEST (4:45pm AEDT) – 31/03/2012
Recent clashes: Adelaide are 2/0 against Gold Coast and won by 61 in the last clash.
Game preview: Gold Coast gave their young kids a good run in the preseason and therefore you can’t talk about their form. Adelaide did the opposite and won the NAB Cup which we all know means nothing for the season. It does look like they have trained on quite well over the offseason with Tippet actually able to mark the ball now and Dangerfield looking.. dangerous. Gold Coast will hang in this game but expect Adelaide to get the upper hand by the end of the 3rd QTR and to leave with a good win.
Adelaide by 34 points
Fremantle Dockers ($2.20) vs Geelong Cats ($1.72) – Saturday 4:45pm AWST (7:45pm AEDT) – 31/03/2012
Recent clashes: Geelong have won 7 of the last 8 clashes with the last clash Geelong beating Fremantle by 11.
Game preview: With the game being played in Perth, the dynamics are switched completely. Fremantle showed some good preseason form and with a full strength team should mount a reliable challenge to the premiers. Geelong played a fairly undermanned squad throughout the preseason but even when they brought back their ‘stars’ they didn’t gel well which could be a bit of a concern. Much like the Carlton form, we feel that Geelong need all of their players in the team to be at their best. Geelong should be too strong in the end for Fremantle but a Fremantle win wouldn’t be a surprise at all.
Geelong by 13 points
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.98) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.88) – Saturday 7:45pm AEDT – 31/03/2012
Recent clashes: North Melbourne have won 3 of the last 5 clashes and beat Essendon in round 13 by 21 points. It is important to note that Essendon were missing a few players due to injury in that match.
Game preview: The hardest match of the round by a mile. Both teams had decent preseasons and with the Bombers not having to fly to the game, we expect them to actually turn up to this game! If you are the type of person to base your tips on previous form then if you note the Roos lost to Sydney by 17 points while Essendon beat them by 2 points. Essendon have been the better of the two teams for the past three years and we expect this to continue with Essendon grinding out a win.
Essendon by 6 points
Western Bulldogs ($2.35) vs West Coast Eagles ($1.65) – Sunday 1:10pm AEDT – 12/08/2011
Recent clashes: Even though the doggies have been performing better over the last 5 years, West Coast have won 6 of the 8 clashes including 3/4 at Etihad stadium. The last clash was a great match that the Eagles won by 8 points.
Game preview: The odds of this game certainly don’t reflect how we see it ending. Western Bulldogs come into this game off some decent form with close to full strength teams in the pre season while West Coast got an easy run of games and breezed through to the final testing a few of their youngsters. Le Cras is a big loss but we feel he is replaceable compared to Barry Hall being lost to the Bulldogs from last season. West Coast are a class team and will be competing for a top 4 spot while the Bulldogs will need some luck to make the top 8.
West Coast by 32
Port Adelaide Power ($2.90) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.45) – Sunday 4:10pm ACST (4:40pm AEDT) – 12/08/2011
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won 4 of the last 7 clashes including a round 16 smashing of Port by 56 points
Game preview: Port Adelaide showed a lot more in the preseason than anyone predicted. It looks like they have been working hard over the off season and have put a good plan in place. St Kilda are looking their normal shabby selves with a good top 12 player list and the rest being underdone. This game being played in Adelaide is a huge advantage to Port and gives them a shot at winning this but St Kilda turn up to the first game of the year fairly strongly and should be too good here.
St Kilda by 22 points
Betting
We really don’t like the first weeks of betting in any sport as teams always surprise. Therefore we will only be taking a few plays.
1. Jack Riewoldt to kick a goal at $1.20
2. West Coast -10.5 at $1.97
3. Adelaide -15.5 at $1.54
4. Melbourne 1-39 at $2.35
5. Carlton 1-39 at $2.36
Please note
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
