The form lines continue to develop as the season progresses and a few teams continue to surprise. Our Best Bet today is certainly the team that has shown the most the past few weeks in the Saints. They come up against the biggest disappointment so far this season in the Eagles who have only beaten bottom of the table teams at home and are due a lesson themselves at home. A few of the top teams continue to be pushed to the limit by lower down teams recently, but they just keep finding a way. The Friday night game may just be one of the very best games of the season with two top class teams fighting it out, leaving 110% out there on the park. Bring on the round!
Best Bet
St Kilda +39.5 Line @ $1.92
Other Bets
Fremantle +45.5 Line @ $1.92
Port Adelaide -16.5 Line @ $1.92
Adelaide ($1.92) VS Geelong ($1.92)
@ Adelaide Oval, Friday 13/05/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Adelaide -0.5, Geelong +0.5
The Crows have been one of the form teams of the season, yet they find themselves facing a tough task in the Cats at a 4-3 record for the season. They lost three close games, all by under 15 points against the Kangaroos, Hawks and Bulldogs… all top teams. Their wins, apart from a 10 point win over the Swans (3rd on the table currently), have all been very comfortable. The Stats from last week are very clear, they probably shouldn’t have been within 3 points with 2 minutes to go in the game, but they just kept hanging in there. They had 80 less disposals, 7 less marks, 3 less tackles, 8 less hitouts, 16 less free kicks, 10 less scoring shots and a huge 31 less inside 50s than the Bulldogs, yet they had a chance to win the match. They just stick in there and kick accurately. Based on the Bulldogs game, they will need to improve and start faster to beat the Cats.
Geelong have been impressive all season… but who have they fought? They shocked a few people in Round 1 by smashing the Hawks by 30 points, but a slow start saw them fall by 13 points to the Giants the next round. Since then, they haven’t allowed an opponent within 30 points. The Cats hit all the expected KPIs last week and come into this match with an almost full strength team for what is clearly their toughest task in several weeks.
This match will be a classic. Neither team wants to allow the other to get a flying start, as i’m convinced it will be almost impossible to claw back a margin beyond 20 points in this match. The Crows will need to restrict the Cats as much as possible to win this today. The Crows four games this season against the Roos, Swans, Hawks and Bulldogs saw their opponent scoring 107, 103, 112 and 123 points, all over 100. The Cats last three matches have been 107, 168 and 123 points scored and no team has scored more than 89 points against them all season. The Crows lowest score all season has been 97.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.60
Quarter by Quarter Leader: Adelaide/Adelaide/Geelong/Geelong @ $18
Essendon ($10.00) VS North Melbourne ($1.05)
@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 14/05/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Essendon +54.5, North Melbourne -54.5
The Bombers come into this match off a belting by the Swans. Outside of a win over the Demons, the Bombers have been a solid 6-8 goals below any other team they have come up against this year.
The Roos remain undefeated after a close win over the Saints last week. They continue to find a way to get it done when it counts. The Roos continue to tick all the boxes KPI wise…. but the last two weeks they have failed to put a huge score on the board. Expect that to change.
Essendon have failed to score more than 57 points in four of their last five matches. I’m expecting a very fast starting Roos team today.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 70 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Quarter Time Line: North Melbourne -12.5 @ $1.90
Hawthorn ($1.09) VS Fremantle ($7.50)
@ Aurora, Saturday 14/05/2016, 2.10pm AEST
Line: Fremantle +45.5, Hawthorn -45.5
The Hawks haven’t exactly been convincing in the way they have won games this season outside of a 46 point win over the Eagles. Even the 46 point win over the Tigers last week came from a 3-QTR time margin that was neck-and-neck. The Stats sheet suggests the Tigers were more than in the game throughout.
The Dockers played very well against the Giants last week and were able to keep them goalless for a 40 minute period between the 3rd and 4th QTRs. Freo had more inside 50s, tackled well and came out equal on the hitouts. Overall it was a very mature performance that suggests to me the Dockers are up to facing and taking on a Hawks team of this quality.
I’m expecting a very even contest today. Fremantle match up very well against this Hawks squad and I don’t expect much to be in the final result either. If the Dockers get a flying start, they are a sneaky chance of winning this.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Fremantle +45.5 Line @ $1.92
Greater Western Sydney ($1.05) VS Gold Coast ($10.00)
@ Spotless Stadium, Saturday 14/05/2016, 4.35pm AEST
Line: Greater Western Sydney -57.5, Gold Coast +57.5
The Giants continue to go from strength to strength this season. They have won their last four in a row over some decent teams including the Hawks two matches back. They hit all the reasonable KPIs last week but their second-half wasn’t the greatest you will ever see.
The Suns effort last week was disgusting and that really has been them the past four weeks have loses to the Lions, Roos, Cats and Demons by a combined 244 points. They measured up in the ruck and even put on the tackles… but they were out-disposed by almost 100 and had 17 scoring shots to just 40… 35 inside 50s to 75. You can’t go close to being a chance on that.
The Giants will more than take care of the Suns here based on previous results.. but i’m not convinced the Giants will be covering their total.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY TO WIN BY 45 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Home Team Total Points UNDER 127.5 @ $1.88
Brisbane ($1.85) VS Collingwood ($1.95)
@ Gabba, Saturday 14/05/2016, 7.25pm AEST
Line: Brisbane -1.5, Collingwood +1.5
The Lions last two games at home have been very solid form to bring into this match today. They were unlucky not to beat the Swans, losing by 3 points two games back, and four games back beat the Suns who had won their three previous games to that. This is a team that won’t win many games at all away from home, but they seem to step up to the next level at home. They reached top 8 KPI’s the past two matches at home and they rate very well here today.
The Pies two matches away from home this season have been 80 point and 62 point loses. They come into this off a 62 point loss to the Eagles and a 15 point loss to the Blues. They are expected to get back a number of quality players today, but their past efforts are certainly well below what is required to win here today.
The Lions find their very best at home and I wouldn’t expect any different today.
BRISBANE TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Brisbane H2H @ $1.85
Richmond ($4.15) VS Sydney ($1.23)
@ MCG, Saturday 14/05/2016, 7.25pm AEST
Line: Richmond +29.5, Sydney -29.5
The Tigers continue to do Tigers things. They have lost their last five matches by 33 points or more. Last week they were in a winning position in the 4th QTR and then let the game blow out to a 46 point margin. Something has to change to measure up to the lofty standards today.
The Swans have won all but one game this year against the Crows away from home. They were a bit sloppy two matches back against the Lions up at the Gabba and were lucky to hold on to the win. They certainly have the ability to put away a team like the Tigers, but we can’t forget the hiccup two matches back and their first game away.
You can’t possibly be taking the Tigers again to win or even to cover can you? They just keep falling short. The Swans will win this and you have to back them in to cover this spread against a team that finds a way to lose and lose big.
SYDNEY SWANS TO WIN BY 36 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Sydney -29.5 Line @ $1.92
Carlton ($2.85) VS Port Adelaide ($1.42)
@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 14/05/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Carlton +16.5, Port Adelaide -16.5
The Blues continue to play some ‘solid’ football. They continue to have the right number of Inside 50s and shots on goal as well as tackles and pressure around the ball while implementing a solid game plan. This has seen them win three games on the trot against the Dockers, Bombers and Magpies. The Power is enough step up in class though today and this will ereally be the testing material.
The Power put in some really disappointing performances this year with 86, 48 and 58 point loses to the Giants, Cats and Crows… but it just so happens those teams are filling places at the top of the table. They have beaten the other four opponents put infront of them by 33 points or move. Travelling away from home was no issue two games back smashing the Tigers at the MCG. The Power seem to have regained their mojo the past few games.
Port Adelaide look well suited coming into this game against a Blues team that has been beating some of the lower table teams. The Power have been impressive and hitting all the relevant figures against better teams than the Blues. Expect them to be far too strong over the 4 QTRs.
PORT ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 38 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Port Adelaide -16.5 Line @ $1.92
Melbourne ($2.75) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.45)
@ MCG, Sunday 14/05/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: Melbourne +13.5, Western Bulldogs -13.5
The Demons have been a very hard team to rate all year. They LOST to the Bombers in Round 2… beat the Giants in Round 1… took the Roos to 5 points and have gone through the Pies and Tigers before losing heavily to the Saints. Last week they smashed the Suns all over the mark winning the Inside 50s by 40! Disposals by nearly 100. Also won the tackles, Hitouts etc but not marks. Clearly when they put 100% into their game plan, they are hard to beat.
The Bulldogs have bene no pushover all year. They had probably their worst game two back against the Roos. Only lost to Roos + Hawks this year is a good sign. Last week they smashed the Crows on all the relevant KPIs, winning the Inside 50s by 29! Won the hitouts, smashed it in the disposals, won the frees, won the marks and even put more tackles on.. they just converted poorly infront of goal compared to Adelaide, giving them a sniff. Infact, they had more scoring shots in all four quarters!
Both teames come into this match with a wealth of confidence off strong results last week. It isn’t out of the question that the Demons could put a win on the board today, but the Bulldogs should get the result here.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20
West Coast ($1.13) VS St Kilda ($6.00)
@ Domain Stadium, Sunday 14/05/2016, 4.40pm AEST
Line: West Coast -36.5, St Kilda +36.5
The Eagles are a frustrating team to predict. They have been great at home all year winning by 64, 33, 68 and 62 over bottom 8 teams, while facing 3 top 6 teams away from home getting smashed in each of those games. They are clearly a middle of the table team at best, but they do find their best at home. They weren’t terrible last week against the Cats, but they were never really in the game from half-time onwards. Lost the Insdie 50s by 17, Tackle count by 22, Mark count by 26, Disposals by 30.
The Saints have been a very unpredictable team this year. They were smashed in Round 1 and 2 by the Power and Bulldogs before beating the down and out Pies. They then pushed the Hawks to the limit, then were pulled apart by the Giants. They then ripped apart the Demons and last week measured up to the Roos, just missing a win by 7 points. Their KPis last week were all fine considering the game was at Etihad stadium. I couldn’t pick much wrong with their effort, they were just simply outclassed on the day.
This match bodes to include the upset of the round. The Saints are drifting outsiders for this match over in the West. Their final half last week is what they need to come out of the gate with in this match to get the better of the Eagles at home. You stop them in their tracks, put them on the back foot and they fall apart as we have seen in recent weeks. The Saints are playing well enough to do this and to win the match.
ST KILDA TO WIN BY 10 POINTS.
Bets to Consider
St Kilda +39.5 Line @ $1.92
St Kilda to win @ $6.00
