The wash up out of Round 5 was all positive in regards to our tipping last week. Our Best Bets bounced back with 3/3 for the week and our tips went 8/9 with just the Fremantle game letting us down, missing the Friday night margin by 1 point as well. This looks an equally as tough round on paper with a few matches that could go either way. One of those matches features as our best bet of the weekend while two bottom dwellers feature as an unders bet as well. What i’m looking to see establish itself this round is form lines for the Pies, Lions, Power, GWS and Tigers to see how they fit into the scheme of things going forward. Let’s get into the games.
Best Bet
North Melbourne -3.5 @ $1.92
Other Bets
Carlton v Essendon – Total Game Points UNDER 168.5 @ $1.88
Hawthorn to win by 1-39 @ $2.25
North Melbourne ($1.78) VS Western Bulldogs ($2.03)
@ Etihad Stadium, Friday 29/04/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: North Melbourne -3.5, Western Bulldogs +3.5
A clinical effort last week travelling up to the Gold Coast and winning by 38. The Roos won all but one quarter, the third, which was lost by just 1 point. Comes into this with 5 wins from 5 starts on the board, with a close 10 point win over the Crows the toughest of those if we ignore the Demons game which was more biased a scoreline due to the wind on that day.
The Bulldogs took care of the Lions last week as expected winning all four quarters against a Brisbane team that had been spanked all bar one game this season. Has won all run this prep by 65, 57, 36 and 53 with only one small loss to the Hawks by 3. The concern for the Bulldogs has to be the team they are fielding after several injuries focused on the backline.
The Kangaroos have been scoring machines all year, with 107 the lowest score in Round 1 beating the Crows, while scoring 117, 119, 132 and 136 points in all games. The Bulldogs on the otherhand have been defensive giants, keeping four of their five opponents this year to under 67 points, with only the Hawks getting 93 past them. This match will be a battle and I’m expecting the Kangaroos to get the better of the Dogs on this occasion.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 20 POINTS
Bets to Consider
North Melbourne -3.5 @ $1.92
Melbourne ($1.55) VS St Kilda ($2.45)
@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 30/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Melbourne -9.5, St Kilda +9.5
There is no doubt in my mind on the past two weeks performances that the Demons have improved significantly this year. Max Gawn in the ruck is one of the huge positives for this team that continues to win the Hitouts and go from there. The Demons won 3 of the 4 qtrs and hit all the required KPIs. They are allowing their opposition to hit their KPIs as well but continue to best them. St Kilda don’t exactly look a ‘step up’ from those who they have beaten.
The Saints were smashed last week around the ground by a strong GWS team. The Demons beat this GWS team in Round 1. The Saints actually shot straight, having just 19 scoring shots from 53 inside 50s in comparison to GWS having 31 shots from 53 inside 50s. GWS were not pressured enough on the day, allowed to have 114 marks around the ground and winning the Disposals. The Saints only win this year has been over the Pies, with loses by 33 to the Power, 57 to the Bulldogs and 47 last week to the Giants the poor results outside othe loss to the Hawks two weeks back in what was a poor Hawks performance.
It’s hard to suggest this Demons team is up to the task of winning three in a row, but the record speaks for itself. This is a team that has won 3 and lost 2. Those loses were by 13 to the Bombers (a bad loss) and 5 to the Roos (A very good loss). They are riding this momentum and i’m expecting them to be too good for the Saints.
MELBOURNE DEMONS TO WIN BY 16 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Melbourne 1-39 points @ $2.30
Adelaide ($1.06) VS Fremantle ($9.00)
@ Adelaide Oval, Saturday 30/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Adelaide -50.5, Fremantle +50.5
The Crows come into this match today as short priced favourites for a good reason. They threw away the match last Friday against the Hawks.. it was the best effort of their season but they have to learn how to win the close ones when it counts. They did the same thing against the Roos in Round 1. On the stats sheet, they deserved to lose last week, but only just and it happened.
The Dockers were horrible last week. Amazing to see they put on 100 tackles and still lost.. the effort was there, just not hte skill. Similar scoring shots and inside 50s. Similar hitouts and similar disposals to Carlton. Lacking players and down and out.
The Crows win. The only question is by how much. Fremantle have scored just 38, 59 and 68 in 3 of their 5 matches this year. In ‘shoot outs’, they scored 100 an 101, losing by 26 and 31. The Crows have been hitting the scoreboard hard all year with 109, 113, 128, 114 and 97. At home they have been hard to stop and i’m expecting them to get the points on the board.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 58 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Home Team (Adelaide) Total Points OVER 119.5 Points @ $1.88
Rory Sloane to get 25 or more disposals @ $2.20
Greater Western Sydney ($2.45) VS Hawthorn ($1.55)
@ Spotless Stadium, Saturday 30/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Hawthorn -10.5, Greater Western Sydney +10.5
The Giants continue to play with strong wins over the Power and the Saints in recent weeks. It can’t be forgotten that they lost to the Demons in Round 1 though. The Swans were the biggest test to date for the Giants and while i’m not going to say the Giants didn’t measure up, they did lose by 25 points.
The Hawks continues to win, but only just. This is a Hawks team that keep making the required opportunities. Last week they had 60 inside 50s which in the end was the difference. 97 tackles showed the teams committment and they just keep going from strength to strength. I would be considered coming out of that game if it was a 6-day turn around, but having been a Friday night match, i’m expecting the Hawks to turn up ready to rumble.
The Giants are going better than expected this year and most importantly lacking in injuries giving them an almost full strength team week after week resulting in solid team work and good results. It’s just simply hard to suggest this Giants team has the ability, especially with a bit of rain around, to get on top of this quality Hawks squad. I can’t see a blow out, so instead of taking the Hawks line, i’ll be more than comfortable taking the 1-39 spread.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Hawthorn to win by 1-39 @ $2.25
Richmond ($1.38) VS Port Adelaide ($3.15)
@ MCG, Saturday 30/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Richmond -18.5, Port Adelaide +18.5
Richmond haven’t been playing ‘terrible’ football and have been getting the Inside 50s on the board as expected, but they continue to get spanked with recent loses of 36, 68 and 33 to the Demons last week. They even lost to the Pies in Round 2 and only just beat the Blues in Round 1. This is a team that has been suffering from a lack of confidence, off-field dramas with Dusty’s dad being deported and now suffer the loss of their number one All-Australian defender for coward punching Jack Watts while on the ground.
Port Adelaide turned up with something to prove last week and caught the cats napping, 9 scoring shots past the cats to just the Cats 5 in the first QTR. After that, it was one way traffic with the cats allowing the Power just 10 more scoring shots for the game, turning around a Power 24 point lead at QTR time to win the game by 48! The Power were smashed in the disposal count with a very low 309 in total. While the effort was there tackling, the Cats dominance in the ruck with 60 hitouts to 28 showed in the clearance numbers. The Power have been flat track bullies when it was needed this year with big wins over the Saints and Bombers, and even bigger loses to the Cats, Giants and Crows.
There is little to no consistency in the results this Power team are putting up, with changing attitudes after every QTR of football. The Tigers on the otherhand actually seem to be trying throughout every game, which is perhaps a greater concern with the results they have put up. Port Adelaide haven’t won at the MCG since 2013, that’s how few games they actually play at this venue… a big advantage for the Tigers.
An additional point to consider when looking at two these of this nature, is how they have been scoring overall. The Tigers have failed to put more than 92 points on the board all year, while their opponents have all scored 125, 128 and 129 points the past three games. The lowest score against them has been 83 all year, a high score all things considered. The Power put 133 points on the board against the Saints and 112 against the Bombers. They even managed 86 against the Crows. The last two weeks have been an issue though with just 65 and 59 points against the Giants and Cats. Betting wise, this leads me to believe there won’t be a huge margin in the decision and we are looking at a game decided by under 25 points. The game total points of 180.5 also suggest this to be the case.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 18 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.15
Geelong ($1.12) VS Gold Coast ($6.25)
@ Simmonds Stadium, Saturday 30/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Geelong -39.5, Gold Coast +39.5
Outside of the first quarter where they were beaten by 24 points, the Cats put in probably their best 3 QTRs of the season, destroying the Power with some accurate kicking. All the stats sheets point to a massacre in the hitouts resulting in a large number of disposals and inside 50s. This will bode well back at home against a Suns outfit lacking a star ruckman.
The Suns have been performing well, but have been a bit disappointing the last few weeks. They were never really in the game last week against the Roos, a few goals behind the Roos at every change of end. They actually did okay in the ruck last week but overall around the ground allowed way too many Inside 50s and didn’t kick accurately enough to measure up. I don’t think the Suns will be a pushover at all here and will perform well.
The cats will be winning this one, but you can expect the Suns to well and truly bring it to the Cats. If the Cats start as slowly as they have been in recent weeks, then you can expect the Suns to cover the spread. Even without such a start, the Suns should be able to measure up around the ground to get within 40 points of this Cats team. Important to note that the Suns have won by 61, 26 and 54 while losing by 13 and 38 points, yet to lose by the suggested line today. Important betting factor to consider if you rate the Cats a sure thing to win this. Why take the Suns with a +39.5 start at $1.92 when you can get the Cats at $2.45 to win by 1-39.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 31 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Geelong 1-39 @ $2.45
Brisbane ($6.50) VS Sydney ($1.11)
@ Gabba, Sunday 1/05/2016, 1.10pm AEST
Line: Brisbane -39.5, Sydney +39.5
The Lions were destroyed away from home last week by an under-manned Dogs team. It was a clinical defeat with 71 to 31 inside 50s 39 to 29 hitouts and 447 disposal to just 328. It was a massacre. The week before the Lions produced a huge effort to topple the Suns.. but that seems to be a week of form that we just can’t take acocunt of.
The Swans continue to win well and beat the top teams when required. Last week they took apart the West Coast team, keeping them to just 49 points. The Swans away record isn’t the best, but they should have little trouble based on all the KPI’s in taking care of this Lions team.
The Lions have lost 4 games this year by 64, 34, 69 and 53 points. Of their home games, they were the better performances of the bunch with a 34 point loss to the Kangaroos and a win over the Suns. The Swans best games have been seen up in Sydney, with a loss to the Crows away and a win over the Blues at Etihad by 60. The Swans will be winning this game, but by how much is the real question. The line is set right in the middle again. If the Swans decide to turn up and smash this Lions team from pillar to post, it could get very nasty scoreboard wise. The Swans have been a defensive jugganaught this season, allowing teams 53, 71, 68, 49 and 113 points (only loss to Adelaide who are a offensive jugganaught). The Lions line is set at 75.5 and the Swans have kept better teams well under this scoreline this year. This looks the way to play here.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 60 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Home Team (Brisbane) Total Points UNDER 75.5 @ $1.88
Carlton ($1.40) VS Essendon ($2.95)
@ MCG, Sunday 1/05/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: Carlton -18.5, Essendon +18.5
The Blues come into this game having won their first game for the year, over in the west defeating Fremantle. It has to be said that the Blues have been playing some very good football this year for the team they have on paper. They almost snuck a win over the Tigers in round 1 and then last round beat a crippled dockers team. The big issue is how will this team score enough points to get a win today.. could this be a low scoring game?
The Bombers were hugely disappointing on ANZAC day. They come into this game off a short break and only had 4 shots on goal for the first half of the game on Monday. They improved from there onwards but had already allowed 14 goals past.
This is a battle of two evils. You can’t play here with any certainty. The Blues have failed to score more than 83 points this year while the Bombers have failed to score more than 80 points. You take both teams highest scores to date and it comes to 143 points for the match. Now that’s not exactly how it works.. but the Bombers have been able to keep the Demons to 67 and Cats to 72 while the Blues kept the Dogs to 95, Suns to 85 and Dockers to 68 the past three games. I really like the current game total line for this match.
CARLTON TO WIN BY 10 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Total Game Points UNDER 168.5 @ $1.88
West Coast ($1.11) VS Collingwood ($6.50)
@ Domain Stadium, Sunday 1/05/2016, 4.40pm AEST
Line: West Coast -39.5, Collingwood +39.5
The Eagles have failed to measure up on the road twice this year, as expected. Their three wins, by large margins, have all been at home at this fortress Domain Stadium. As you know, our best bet last week was for this eagles side to fail to cover 85.5 points away from home and they could only manage 49. This week, back at home, against a much weaker team, expect the flood gates to open.
The Pies come into this off a Monday game. It was a much needed improved effort against the Dons on ANZAC day… but the scoresheet suggests a few flaws that will be exploited by the Eagles here… allowing Essendon 51 inside 50s on the day!
The Eagles will win and win well. The line looks to be pretty much where I would expect it. The betting market i’m most interested in is the Eagles team total points.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 44 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Home Team (West Coast) Total Points OVER 113.5 @ $1.88
