We come into Round 5 of the AFL with a few more questions than answers. The two best bets of the round last week for us were the two results that were completly unexpected at our end with the Suns failing to show up and the Swans going into the final QTR with a lead against the Crows and failing to close it out. Other than that, we were actually quite spot on with a few solid picks including Melbourne to upset the Pies, the Giants to beat the Power in the close betting match of Sunday. The Brisbane Lions have advanced themselves to our ‘do not bet on or against’ list for the time being. There are some fairly interesting games this weekend which give us three bets we are keen to bet into this weekend.

Best Bet
Away Team (West Coast Eagles) Total Points UNDER 85.5 @ $1.88

Other Best Bets
North Melbourne 1-39 Margin @ $2.25
Geelong -12.5 line @ $1.92

Hawthorn ($1.40) VS Adelaide ($3.00)

@ MCG, Friday 22/04/2016, 7.50pm AEST
Line: Hawthorn -16.5, Adelaide +16.5

The Hawks come into this off a tough win over the Saints down in tassy. They were given a -42.5 line, yet only won by 3 points. It’s safe to firstly suggest the Saints played very well.. putting the pressure on with 78 tackles for both teams… St Kilda had more disposals but the Hawks won the hitouts and had more scoring shots and inside 50s. It wasn’t a bad performance from the Hawks at all and I don’t think there is anything to worry about coming into this one back on the MCG surface they love.

The Crows won a close one against the Swans last week at home thanks to a straight shooting 5 goals 4 in the final quarter to get past the Swans who went 3 goals 5 when it counted. The Stats sheet tells the tale of the game with 57 and 61 inside 50s to each team and 33 to 28 scoring shots.. it was an old fashioned shoot out. Tackles, hitouts, marks and even disposals were all pretty much spot on even.. you couldn’t split the teams on the day, so the scoreboard did. There is no doubt that this was the Crows best performance for the year and unlike with the game against the Roos, they didn’t flounder in the big moments late in the game, they fought for the win.

The Hawks have failed to break the 100 point margin in all four games this year, showing a slightly different strategy and a lack of Roughead in the team. The Crows on the other hand have scored 97, 144, 128 and 113 points in their four games this year. The Crows don’t play many games on the MCG which is a slight concern when you consider the 135-61 drubbing last year at the hands of the Hawks in the Semi Final, but I have to believe these are two different teams all together. The Crows are on a roll while the Hawks are coming off a tough win away in Tasmania. I’m expecting a tighter match than the odds suggest.

HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 2 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Adelaide +16.5 Line @ $1.92
Hawthorn 1-24 Winning Margin @ $3.40

Sydney ($1.70) VS West Coast ($2.15)

@ SCG, Saturday 23/04/2016, 1.40pm AEST
Line: Sydney -6.5, West Coast +6.5

The Swans come off a disappointing defeat to the Crows over in Adelaide where they led at 3 QTR time and kicked ineffecitvely in the final QTR to lose by 10 points in the end. Overall on the stats sheet it was a good solid effort especially away from home and they were simply beaten by a better team on the day. This was the Swans first loss for the year after convincing wins over the Magpies, Blues and Giants. They fell at the first real hurdle of the year which is a bit of a concern, but back to the SCG fortress where they have won their last 5 games in a row, expect the team to take this game head on.

The Eagles are a hard team to understand. When their hot, they are impossible to beat and we saw that last week against a disappointing Tigers team. The Eagles had 113 marks from 342 disposals, won the hitouts by 33, had 35 scoring shots to 12! 60 inside 50s to 27 and that’s all she wrote. It was a destructive performance and they seem to bully the smaller teams. The blip on their record is no doubt that very disappointing performance against the Hawks at the MCG in Round 2. There was no excuse for what happened that day, they were simply beaten in all but half a QTR. The Eagles have lost their last 3 games away from home and drew a 4th! That’s not a great sign heading over to the SCG to face one of the top teams of the league in the Swans.

This is a tough match to figure out and to bet into with any hint of confidence. The Eagles best has been more than good enough and on the stats sheet they will be very hard to hold out here, but the Swans have been equal to the challenge as proven last week against the Crows. The Eagles have failed to score over 90 points away in 7 of their last 8 matches. The Swans have allowed opponents to score more than 90 points on them at home just 1 time in the past 9 matches (94 points). With 5-15mm of rain expected on Friday through to Saturday morning, I’m very keen to be backing the Eagles to not cover the line.

SYDNEY TO WIN BY 15 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Away Team (West Coast Eagles) Total Points UNDER 85.5 @ $1.88

Gold Coast ($2.45) VS North Melbourne ($1.55)

@ Metricon Stadium, Saturday 23/04/2016, 4.35pm AEST
Line: Gold Coast +10.5, North Melbourne -10.5

The Suns came into last week against the Lions with a 3-0 record while the Lions has failed to get within 34 points of a win, scoring just 83 and 56 points in their last two games. The Suns allowed the Lions complete control all around the ground outside of the Hitsouts which was relatively even overall. The Lions won the disposals, marks, tackles, frees, scoring shots (significantly) and Inside 50s (significantly) while shooting just 37% to still beat the Giants. It was a very disappointing game and all you can feel is the Suns have a lot more to offer back at home.

The Roos come into this match as the only undefeated team in the league. They almost got taken down by the Demons two games back and also in round 1 when they toughed the game out against the Crows. The Demons franked the form of sorts last week by showing a solid performance to beat the Pies. On paper, the win against the Dockers ticks all the boxes once again with the inside 50s and scoring shots both wins, a significant win in the centre with hitouts and the game plan was executed perfectly with 114 marks to Fremantles 80. The Roos have travelled twice already this season getting the wins on the board. I wouldn’t suggest they have been overly convincing, but they are going well enough to be considered favourites here.

The Suns will bounce back here today, but it’s hard to ignore the number of scoring shots they allowed the Lions on the back of pressure throughout the match. I’m expecting the Roos to take full advantage of the disfunctional Suns outfit here and to score a strong victory away from home by a few goals.

NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 23 POINTS

Bets to Consider
North Melbourne 1-39 Margin @ $2.25

Western Bulldogs ($1.09) VS Brisbane ($7.50)

@ Etihad Stadium, Saturday 23/04/2016, 7.25pm AEST
Line: Western Bulldogs -40.5, Brisbane +40.5

The Bulldogs continued on with their strong form lines with an easy win over the Blues. It wasn’t anything to brag about but as expected they got the win. They did fail to cover the line.

I’m not sure how much we can read into the Lions win on the weekend over the Suns. I rated the Suns in that game and was keen to bet against the Lions, but the Lions pretty much won every key stat and a ton of shots on goal. It wasn’t a performance you could expect on the previous three matches Form.

I’m convinced by this match. There is no way I could take the Bulldogs at the line, but I’d struggle to take the Lions either. The Doggies to win by 1-39 looks the only logical way to approach it. Expect a Dogs win, but not by a big margin.

WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 28 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Western Bulldogs 1-39 Margin @ $2.50

Port Adelaide ($2.35) VS Geelong ($1.60)

@ Adelaide Oval, Saturday 23/04/2016, 7.40pm AEST
Line: Port Adelaide +12.5, Geelong -12.5

The Power have won just 5 of 16 quarters for the year! The Power come into this game having convincingly lost to the Crows and Giants while beating the Saints and Bombers. They were taken apart last week by the Giants in a 4 QTR demolotion losing each QTR by 23, 38, 5 and 20. The Power managed just 4, 4, 5 and 7 scoring shots in each quarter while allowing the Giants 12, 12, 10 and 7. As you can exact from that, there was 75 inside 50s to just 41. The worst part about all of this is that the Giants only had 4 more hitsouts, 1 more tackle and 27 more disposals for the game. Safe to say the Power will have to produce a significantly better performance this week to match the likes of the Cats.

The Cats come into this match with a 3-1 record, having lost a close match to the Giants away from home. Their last two wins have been more than convincing, but it is safe to say the performance on the weekend against the Bombers was sloopy at best. The Cats had 50 inside 50s to 40, 27 scoring shots to 12 (a big positive) while losing the hitouts, marks and well down on disposals. They did win the tackles comfortably which suggests while we don’t think the performance on the weekend was great, that they still put the pressure on when required. They kicked poorly infront of goal while the Bombers were accurate, yet still won all four quarters.

While it’s easy to say the Cats have a poor record record outside of Victoria, it just isn’t true based on 2014/15 figures with loses to the Swans and Eagles who were both premiership contenders, a win over the Power in Adelaide and a win over the Giants in Sydney. They were slow off the mark against the Giants and they underestimated their opponent. The Power have been struggling to measure up against the top class performers and on my current ratings the Cats are very much up there on the list.

GEELONG TO WIN BY 27 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Geelong -12.5 line @ $1.92

St Kilda ($2.30) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.62)

@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 24/04/2016, 1.10pm AEST
Line: St Kilda +9.5, Greater Western Sydney -9.5

Did the Saints play their grand final last week against the Hawks? The Saints put up a mighty effort, but it must be fairly sole destroying to fall short to the team to beat in the Hawks. On the stats sheet the Saints did everything right with 18 more marks, equal on tackles, losing the hitouts by just 8 and most importantly being very close on the board with Inside 50s 46-52 and scoring shots 19-22. The Saints return home to Etihad where they play for just the second time this year, with the only other match being a 36-93 loss to the Bulldogs. The Saints best is more than good enough to measure up to the Giants, but there are huge questions over whether they are consistent enough to bring that effort a second week in a row.

The Giants seem to be the strong improver of 2016. They should have beaten the Demons in Round 1, but even that loss has had a franking of form of sorts since. Their win over the Cats put them back on track and even their loss to the Swans wasn’t bad at all. They showed their most mature effort of the season by taking the Power apart last week all over the mark with 41 scoring shots.

Expecting a close match that will be decided by under a Goal.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY BY 2 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Tri Bet – Either Team Under 15.5 Points @ $2.65
Draw @ $51

Fremantle ($1.13) VS Carlton ($6.00)

@ Domain Stadium, Sunday 24/04/2016, 4.10pm AEST
Line: Fremantle -38.5, Carlton +38.5

The Dockers went last year from being premiership contenders with the Brownlow medalist to a 0-4 start to the season needing to match-up against a bottom team with a home game, and that’s just what they get here. I thought the effort last week against the Roos was the best performance of the year for the struggling dockers who have had over 100 points kicked against them in three of four games this year. This happened a total of three times last year.

The Blues have been kept to under 49 points the past two weeks and have been well taken care of. The previous loss they scored 71 and lost by 60. There is very little positives to pull out of the match against the Bulldogs apart from the number of scoring shots they allowed the Bulldogs. Even so, the Bulldogs half-time score was enough to take care of the Blues full-time score. It’s crazy to believe a team that is 0-4 would start $1.13, but that’s what is happening here.

It’s hard to see the Blues getting a win over in the West against this Dockers line-up that will be hungry to finally deliver their first win to the starving fans at home. The team will be looking to make a statement and I don’t expect it to be pretty for the Blues. That being said, i’m not overly excited to be betting strongly into the match either. If betting here it would have to be for the Dockers to keep the Blues to under 71.5 points, which has happened in 3 of their 4 matches this season.

FREMANTLE TO WIN BY 44 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Away Team (Carlton) Total Points UNDER 71.5 @ $1.88

Melbourne ($1.81) VS Richmond ($2.00)

@ MCG, Sunday 24/04/2016, 7.10pm AEST
Line: Melbourne -2.5, Richmond +2.5

The Tigers entered last week’s game with some expectation from the general public but none from me. The Eagles were able to destroy them even without Brownlow Medalist Matty Priddis. The Tigers lost all 4 QTRs which is a very poor stat to combine with the 27 to 60 inside 50s, losing the tackles, marks, hitouts heavily all while being close on the disposal count, but having 12 shots on goal to 35. The 9 goals 3 behinds flattered their performance. After a win over the Blues and a close loss to the pies, the Tigers have lost by 36 and 68 points to the Crows and Eagles.

This is the most consisten Melbourne we have seen in some time. Will they didn’t exactly deserve the win in Round 1, they got it over the Giants. They failed heavily against the Bombers but bounced back against the Kangaroos just falling short in their best performance of the year. As predicted, last week they took care of the Pies by 35 points in the end with relative ease. Staying at the MCG and 7 weeks between matches, they look to take advantage of a battered and bruised Tigers team low on confidence coming back from a Perth away trip.

There is little to no reason to trust the Tigers to get the job done here. The Tigers have won just 1 of the last 8 quarters, and that was against an Adelaide team who had shut up shot leading by 47 going into the final QTR of that match. The Demons on the other hand won 3 of the 4 quarters last week against the Pies and 2 of the 4 against the Roos the week before. Consistency suggests the Demons are the team to be on here.

MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 15 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Melbourne -2.5 Line @ $1.92

Collingwood ($1.41) VS Essendon ($2.90)

@ MCG, Sunday 24/04/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: Collingwood -17.5, Essendon +17.5

The Pies have lost 3 of their 4 matches this year and the only win was by 1 point over the struggling Tigers. The Pies lost 3 of the 4 QTRs last week and it seems as if there is an injury cloud over a few key players. While the stats sheet doesn’t shoot down the team’s effort with 55 to 57 inside 50s and 22 to 22 scoring shots, thereis still improvement to be made. The pies put on 99 tackles which is a vast improvement from the week before, but they got beaten in the Hitouts and failed to shut down the Demons around the ground and infront of goal. Most importantly, the Pies shot 9 goals 13 to 16 goals 6. On the stats sheet, all the right people fired for the Pies last week and they still didn’t get the job done. They even couldn’t blame Clokey as he went 2 goals 0 behinds. This is the Pies chance to put their season back on track and they won’t find a better team or better occasion to do so for some time.

The Bombers have lost by 61, 61 and 30 points this year while they did get the better of the Demons in Round 2. The Disposals sheet suggests they were well in the game last week against the Cats, but it doesn’t matter how many times you touch the ball when you have just 12 shots on goal to 27 and win the disposal count by over 60! The pressure wasn’t there with just 59 tackles. The Bombers even got the rub of the green from the umpires with 24 to 16 frees. They continue to struggle to get the ball infront of goal and to convert.

A battle of two teams clearly struggling at this stage of the season. This is the Pies game to lose, and they very much could do just that. That being said, I have confidence in an inspired improvement in this game today and I think the Pies will get it all back together for a solid win.

COLLINGWOOD TO WIN BY 27 POINTS

Bets to Consider
Collingwood 1-39 Margin @ $2.15