It takes three rounds of play to get a strong indication into how teams will perform for the season, which generally makes Round 4 one of the better rounds of the year to bet with confidence. It’s always important to remember that just because a team looks value, that it shouldn’t take them off your ‘caution’ list. A prime example this week is Melbourne. On my ratings, the Demons should be favourites over the Pies, but they are still a jury’s out team. The Gold Coast are the real deal on everything I have seen to date and they go up as our Best Bet of the weekend at the line taking on one of the worst peforming teams in the Brisbane Lions. Have a read and let me know your thoughts via Twitter @AFL_TheProfits.
Best Bet
Gold Coast -22.5 Line @ $1.92
Next Best Bet
Sydney Swans Head to Head @ $1.80
West Coast ($1.22) VS Richmond ($4.35)
@ Domain Stadium, Friday 15/04/2016, 8.10pm AEST
Line: West Coast -28.5, Richmond +28.5
The Eagles come into this off a comprehensive derby win over the out of form Fremantle Dockers who are now 0-3. The Eagles dominated the hitouts which was helped by Sandilands going down at a critical stage of the match. The Eagles didn’t actually kick straight but that didn’t matter much with 63 inside 50s to 37. Expect a faster start this week.
The Tigers last week were the team we wanted to take on, with 2 un-professional performances to start the year and we were certainly vindicated in our tip. The game was done and dusted pretty much from half-time onwards with the Crows more than putting it to bed by 3 QTR time. The Tigers stats don’t look terrible on paper, but the majority of the make-up was in the 4th QTR when Adelaide just sat back and got to the line with minimal effort.
The Eagles continue to be very difficult to beat over in the West and come into this game with confidence after a strong win over their rivals the Dockers. The Eagles can be forgiven for the slip up over at the MCG against the form side in the Hawks. The Tigers fell over the line against the Blues in Round 1 (who have since lost by 54 points to the Suns and 60 points to the Swans) and lost to the Pies (who were beaten by the Swans in R1 by 80 and St Kilda in R3 by 29) which doesn’t bode well as form lines to follow. I think they were better last week, but they are a far way from beating a premiership contender.
WEST COAST EAGLES TO WIN BY 36 POINTS
Bets to Consider
West Coast Eagles -28.5 Line @ $1.92
Essendon ($13.00) VS Geelong ($1.03)
@ MCG, Saturday 16/04/2016, 1.45pm AEST
Line: Essendon +64.5, Geelong -64.5
The Bombers were disgraced last week by an under-manned Port Adelaide team. The stats don’t read well for the Bombers either giving up too many Inside 50s and allowing the opposition far too much control of the ball around the ground.
The Cats come off a big win at home against the Lions (not much to brag about) holding the Lions to just 56 points and kicking 125 points. 69 to 35 inside 50s is hard to argue against and for a team to win that well but put on 21 more tackles is a big positive.
The Bombers always seem to play better than expected against the Cats, but even I can’t suggest a strong performance based on the two teams expected to be on the park here.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 50 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Half Time Margin Geelong 25-36 @ $4.50
Hawthorn ($1.10) VS St Kilda ($7.00)
@ AURORA, Saturday 16/04/2016, 2.10pm AEST
Line: Hawthorn -42.5, St Kilda +42.5
The Hawks come into this game off a bruising encounter with the Bulldogs. They lost the Inside 50s but won on the scoreboard by kicking straight, winning in the ruck and putting on tackles around the ground. It’s not often you see a Hawks team lose the Disposals and still win, but that’s what happened. Make no mistake, this is a Hawks team that is playing together, but it’s questionable just how hard they will go this week against the Saints.
The Saints weren’t very good last week getting the win over an undermanned Collingwood side. Infact, neither side were great. The Saints stats look average at best, but they won the match by coverting when they got inside 50 and controlling the ball around the ground. This is a big step up and class for them today.
The Hawks always perform well at Aurora and the Saints are a top tier team, but there can be only one winner in this match and that is the Hawks. I don’t expect a blowout, but i’m expecting a strong Hawks win.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 32 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.60
Brisbane ($3.50) VS Gold Coast ($1.30)
@ GABBA, Saturday 16/04/2016, 4.35pm AEST
Line: Brisbane +22.5, Gold Coast -22.5
The Lions last week were destroyed from the opening siren on the ground and on the scoreboard. They allowed Geelong 69 inside 50s to 35, lost the hitouts, laid 21 less tackles and took 36 less marks. They were terrible infront of goal to finish the story.
The Suns are the surprise packet of 2016. They have started with three wins in a row over the Bombers, Dockers and Blues, all teams that haven’t exactly faired well. The Suns have made quick work of all three teams with a 61 point win, 26 point win (over Freo in the West) and 44 points. The Suns are getting the required inside 50 numbers, kicking well enough, getting more than enough disposals and tackling well. The big downfall for this team is their ruckwork, but I can’t see that being too much of a challenge against this Brisbane side.
We have a 3-0 Suns team taking on a 0-3 Lions team today. One team has won all 3 games this season by more than the line, while the other has lost all three games by more than the line (two convincingly more). I’m very confident the Suns will get the job done here and the margin will be larger than the bookies are expecting. On the betting side of things, The Lions have lost two games by over 60 while the Suns have won one by over 60 this year, suggesting there is value to be had in a blowout result.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 46 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Gold Coast -22.5 Line @ $1.92
Gold Coast 60+ Winning Margin Spread @ $5.80
Carlton ($6.30) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.12)
@ ETIHAD STADIUM, Saturday 16/04/2016, 7.25pm AEST
Line: Carlton +40.5, Western Bulldogs -40.5
The Blues come off another disappointing performance with a 54 point defeat to the Suns last week. The stats aren’t pretty with just 16 scoring shots from 49 inside 50s. The Blues even won the Hitouts by 19 giving them an advantage around the ball. What will be very disappointing for the coaching staff is just 53 tackles. That has to improve today to even be a chance at the line.
The Bulldogs have been the rising star of the league this year and they were brilliant against the Hawks after a slow start, losing it in the final minute of play. They had more inside 50s, won the disposals and tackled as well as could be expected.
The Bulldogs are away from the Etihad fortress today but they are facing a team that isn’t expected to win more than a handful of games all year against the lowest of the low teams. There is no question in my mind that the Bulldogs will be winning this game and it’s hard to see the Blues not allowing the Bulldogs minimum 25 scoring shots.
WESTERN BULLDOGS TO WIN BY 42 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Western Bulldogs -40.5 Line @ $1.92
Adelaide (2.02) VS Sydney ($1.80)
@ ADELAIDE OVAL, Saturday 16/04/2016, 7.40pm AEST
Line: Adelaide +2.5, Sydney -2.5
The Crows have been a very sound team for the first three rounds of the year. They had the game against the Roos in their hands and threw it away which is still a concern for me coming into a match that won’t be a cake walk unlike the Tigers and Power matches which were over well out from the final siren. The Crows monstered the Tigers last week all around the ground and eased up late. The stats don’t look great when you view them for the full game, but if you take out the last QTR, the dominance is quite clear.
The Swans have had a relatively easy first few weeks of the year with 3 large wins on the board over the Pies, Blues and Giants. The Swans had 67 to 47 inside 50s last week but a concerning sign was the just 23 scoring shots from 67 inside 50s. This has to improve up against a stronger Adelaide defense. All of the statistics point towards another strong Swans performance.
This will be a great, hard fought match worth watching. The Swans and Crows have been two form teams of the league coming into this match. The Swans have only lost one QTR in 3 games to date and I’m expecting the Swans to get the better of the Crows at home.
The real decision you have on hand here is do you take the Sydney H2H price of $1.80 or do you take the Swans to win by 1-39 at $2.45 for a little extra juice? Personally, I feel the Swans do have the ability to blow this game out so i’ll be settling for the safer option.
SYDNEY SWANS TO WIN BY 18 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Sydney Swans Head to Head @ $1.80
Greater Western Sydney ($1.75) VS Port Adelaide ($2.08)
@ Manuka Oval, Sunday 17/04/2016, 1.10pm AEST
Line: GWS -4.5, Port Adelaide +4.5
The Giants put up a good attempt against the undefeated Swans last week but after a scoreless first QTR it was always going to be a hard task to claw back a lead from there. While the -20 inside 50s figure was concerning, the giants did keep the Swans to just 23 scoring shots. The Giants would want to get a strong start this week.
The Power flew out of the gates against Essedon last week, winning the first QTR by 36 points with 11 scoring shots to 5. Overall they won all the required stats and were just more effective on the day with 61 to 41 inside 50s telling the tail. This is a much harder task today against a Giants team that will be able to keep up with this fast Power team around the ground in all aspects of the game.
This looks to be one of the hardest games of the round to pick a winner in. This is the Power’s first game away from home all year and in the first 16 rounds of last year, the Power lost to teams such as the Lions, Blues and Tigers away from home, with just wins over Melbourne and Kangaroos on the board away. This looks the ultimate flip of the coin and will depend on how many players return for the Power.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY TO WIN BY 1 POINT
Bets to Consider
Total Game Points – Under 176.5 @ $1.90
Collingwood ($1.53) VS Melbourne ($2.50)
@ MCG, Sunday 17/04/2016, 3.20pm AEST
Line: Collingwood -11.5, Melbourne +11.5
The Pies enter this game as favourites after a disgraceful performance against the Saints last weekend. Not only did they have 9 less scoring shots than the Saints from just 5 less Inside 50s, but they actually kicked straight for the whole match and still got spanked. The Pies were very poor pressure wise around the ground laying just 53 tackles for the match allowing St Kilda 97 more Disposals. The Pies allowed St Kilda 126 marks… the game plan just isn’t there and this is a team that will continue to lose.
It’s hard to judge just how well the Demons played last week. Was the wind a massive advantage or did they just play much better than everyone was expecting against a form side of the league in the Roos? 63 to 51 inside 50s and 31 shots on goal suggests it was a top performance. Goldstein was monstered in the ruck with the Demons getting 65 hitouts to 43. While they are impossible to trust, the Demons stats from last week and the win over the Giants from R1 on the board are hard to ignore.
The game plan just isn’t there for the Pies. I have seen some huge improvement in the game of the Demons this year and it was showcased last week down in Tassy against the Roos. I’m quite comfortable taking on the Pies here today.
MELBOURNE DEMONS TO WIN BY 15 POINTS
Bets to Consider
Melbourne +11.5 Line @ $1.92
Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.10
North Melbourne ($1.34) VS Fremantle ($3.25)
@ Etihad Stadium, Sunday 17/04/2016, 4.40pm AEST
Line: North Melbourne -21.5, Fremantle +21.5
It’s safe to say the game the Roos produced last week was far below their best for the year. After using the wind to kick out to a strong lead, they just couldn’t play a defensive game that was suited to the wind. I’m willing to forgive them and suggest their game plan just wasn’t suited ot the wind, but they have to improve onwards again today to justify the short quote on offer. Sandilands out is a massive positive for the Roos here.
The Dockers were well in the game last week against the Eagles up until Sandilands was taken out of the match. It was a huge blow for the Fremantle structure and they were destroyed around the stoppages after that. 37 to 63 inside 50s tells the story with the Eagles having 21 scoring shots in the second half of the match. I’m just not sure the Dockers can put the number of points on the board required to stick with the Roos throughout the match today at this ground.
The Dockers have been kept to 39 and 59 points against the Bulldogs and the Eagles this year. The Suns were the only team to allow them a decent score with 100 points on the board, but that was no where near enough to match the Suns that day. North have shot 117, 136 and 107 this year, all scores above the maximum Fremantle have put on the board. It’s hard to see how the Dockers based on expected teams, will be able to keep the Roos under control enough to score enough points to win the match.
NORTH MELBOURNE BY 20 POINTS
Bets to Consider
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.15
