Welcome to the Round 21 AFL preview. After a round of encounters that saw margins of six goals or more in eight matches, results were quickly forgotten on Tuesday afternoon when rumours spread that James Hird was to resign as Essendon coach. By 3.15pm, that news was made official with Matthew Egan named the interim coach for the final three games of 2015. While Hird officially resigned, he had been in talks with the club for many weeks prior. The terrible results and poor crowds became too much for the club and Hird was told his time was up. After years of holding off what seemed the inevitable, it was the on field performance that ended up being the final straw for Hird, not the infamous drugs saga. While all factors are linked in some way, it just proves that on field success is all that matters when judging the success of a coaching tenure. Even if you have a developing list that needs time, poor results can only be absorbed for so long.

BEST BET
Geelong @ the -25.5 line

HAWTHORN ($1.06) VS PORT ADELAIDE ($9.50)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, FRIDAY 21/08, 19:50
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4   2015   Port Adelaide   15.9   (99)   dftd   Hawthorn   13.13   (91)   at AO
Line: Hawks -50.5, Port +50.5
Hawthorn ran away to a comfortable victory against Geelong last Saturday night, but the final 36 point margin didn’t quite justify how the match was played. The Hawks got off to a fast 7 goal to 3 first quarter that probably set up the win in the end. From there Hawthorn struggled to put Geelong away, before three consecutive goals during time on of the third quarter created a significant enough buffer. The Hawks are rarely beaten of total disposals and contested possession, but created so many simple scoring opportunities that it didn’t matter. Alastair Clarkson’s men are in outstanding shape coming into September, but will have to fight for a home Qualifying Final after West Coast’s win against Fremantle.
Port Adelaide started like a house on fire against GWS, kicking the first 4 goals of the game within 11 minutes. Then things began to get nasty, as Travis Boak and Heath Shaw struggled to control their tempers. Things started to get physical which led to a number of 50 penalties being awarded, but it helped lift the game to a finals like tempo. Not much was expected of this clash, but it was high scoring and easy on the eye. Port eventually ran away to a 21 point win and it did so with a standard that pleased everyone. Schulz returns, but Port Adelaide lose Trengove to a shoulder injury.
Port Adelaide got off to a rollicking start against Hawthorn in Round 4 and it will need to duplicate that effort to have any chance against the premier. I’d be shocked to see anything like that happen again.
HAWTHORN TO WIN BY 45 POINTS 
Suggested Bet:
Over 196.5 Total Points

COLLINGWOOD ($2.85) VS RICHMOND ($1.44)

AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 22/08, 13:45
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R7   2015   Richmond   16.9   (105)   dftd   Collingwood   15.10   (100)   at the MCG
Line: Pies +14.5, Tigers -14.5
Nathan Buckley and his players would be well and truly sick of hearing about honourable losses. There have been too many occasions where Collingwood have been in winnable positions but haven’t finished the job. A large percentage of those occasions have been against quality opposition, but that doesn’t make the situation any better. There is no point of being competitive against a premiership contender if you aren’t going to make the finals. Despite finals now being extremely unlikely from here, Collingwood have certainly improved on its 2014 efforts. It has lost five games within two goals and only needed to convert two of those encounters to be seriously contending for an Elimination Final.
Richmond was back to its best on Sunday afternoon, going on to defeat the Suns by an impressive 83 points. The Tigers ended with four players kicking 3 goals or more, a list that didn’t include Jack Riewoldt. Richmond are now a side that possesses multiple scoring options and they come in all sizes. Tyrone Vickery proved that he’ll be an important asset during finals with four goals, as well as giving Ivan Maric a break through the ruck. Brett Deledio returned to the side with a 21 disposal and 3 goal game, while 15 players managed to gather 18 disposals or more. It was an all-round confidence boosting performance for the Tigers. Shane Edwards is back to further strengthen the 22.
Richmond only got up by 5 points in Round 7, but Collingwood were playing better football then. The Tigers should be too strong.
RICHMOND TO WIN BY 22 POINTS  
Suggested Bet:
Most Possessions Group 2 Anthony Miles @ $4.00

GWS ($2.75) VS SYDNEY ($1.47)

AT SPOTLESS STADIUM, SATURDAY 22/08, 14:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R3   2015   Sydney   16.15   (111)   dftd   GWS Giants   12.18   (90)   at the SCG
Line: Giants +11.5, Swans -11.5
The Giants fought hard against Port Adelaide to keep its slim finals chances alive, but ultimately went down in a physical contest. Heath Shaw got the young side up and firing after an altercation with Travis Boak, which appeared to kick GWS into gear. After conceding the first 4 goals of the game, the Giants threatened to steal the game away until Port Adelaide finally created a break in the last quarter. GWS still only sit six points outside the eight, but will need to defeat its crosstown rival to be any chance of a debut finals berth. Treloar and Coniglio are important inclusions, but Smith and Davis are out. Sydney had to fight hard for the points against Collingwood after numerous injuries left the 2014 Grand Finalist vulnerable. Sydney were down by 5 points at three quarter time and when Luke Parker was stretchered off in the opening ten minutes of the last, its top four hopes were fading fast. Three consecutive goals to Reid, Brandon Jack and Jetta sprung the Swans back to life and despite some tense final moments, Sydney sealed an 11 point win and most importantly kept in touch with the top four. The Swans form line is questionable, but a relatively simple run home has it in the box seat to claim a top four position. Parker and Mitchell injuries greatly weaken a struggling midfield. Buddy Franklin is still battling with that back and hasn’t been named.
Both Sydney based clubs are struggling to hit the highs of earlier this season, but still have plenty to play for. The Swans should have enough experience to get across the line, despite the loss of key players.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 8 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Jeremy Cameron To Score 3 Goals or More @ $1.91

GOLD COAST ($1.47) VS ESSENDON ($2.75)

AT METRICON STADIUM, SATURDAY 22/08, 16:35
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R22   2014   Essendon   16.12   (108)   dftd   Gold Coast   13.11   (89)   at ES
Line: Suns -12.5, Bombers +12.5
The Gold Coast Suns were blown away in the second half against Richmond, falling to its second biggest loss of the season. The final margin was exaggerated by the Suns conceding 14 goals after half time, a figure that wouldn’t please Rodney Eade at all. Tom Lynch continued his outstanding conclusion to the season with another 11 marks and three goals, while Aaron Hall has strung together a consistent period of performances. Apart from those two and perhaps Kade Kolodjashnij, positives were difficult to find. Hopefully the Suns don’t fall further away to end an already disastrous 2015 campaign. Dixon, Harbrow and Nicholls miss through injury, but Rory Thompson is back.
As I stated during the introduction, James Hird has resigned as the senior coach of the Essendon Football after arguably the most tumultuous tenure in the history of the sport. Two triple figure results on top of a goalless first half against Geelong and a mauling from the Western Bulldogs has taken its toll, as the Bombers are now suffering financially from record low crowds. The numbers against Adelaide told a clear and familiar story of a game plan that was stagnant. Essendon nearly finished with more disposals than the Crows, which is something rarely associated with the loser of a triple figure margin. Matthew Egan will take the reins and hopefully implement some fresh ideas to finish the season off. Michael Hurley returns to a vulnerable looking defence.
I stated a couple of weeks ago that I won’t be tipping Essendon again this season and stand by that opinion. The Suns will win and don’t be surprised if Tom Lynch kicks a bag.
GOLD COAST TO WIN BY 35 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Most Goals Tom Lynch @ $2.75

ST KILDA ($4.25) VS GEELONG ($1.24)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SATURDAY 22/08, 19:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R13   2014   Geelong   20.13   (133)   dftd   St Kilda   5.7   (37)   at SS
Line: Saints +25.5, Cats -25.5
St Kilda were completely dominant during the first half against North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena. The Saints held most statistical advantages, but wasted far too many great opportunities. St Kilda had 17 scoring shots up to that point of the game compared to North’s 7 and while it held a 20 point lead, you never felt it was going to be enough. That proved to be correct as North kicked 9 goals in the third quarter to complete a 45 point turnaround in 30 minutes. Alan Richardson won’t dwell on the negatives, but the trip to Hobart should have ended with a better result. St Kilda have had to make seven changes due to injury, highlighted by the exclusions of Armitage, Longer, Dempster and Roberton.
Geelong showed signs against Hawthorn to suggest that it could cause some damage in September, if of course it can make the top eight. Geelong matched it with Hawthorn for total possessions and contested possessions, but conceded far too many easy scoring opportunities. The Cats must now win its remaining three games to make finals and hope West Coast defeat Adelaide in Round 22. The Crows 112 point win against Essendon has created a 10% gap between it and Geelong, leaving the Cats in a precarious position. Geelong have now drifted to $2.90 to make the eight. Lonergan has recovered from illness, while Nathan Vardy will play his first game since 2013 after recovering from a ruptured ACL.
The Cats will have a percentage boost in the back of their minds for this game, but can’t get ahead of themselves. St Kilda have shown signs of dropping off over the last six weeks, despite its excellent first half against North Melbourne. Geelong are playing good football currently and should cover the line easily, especially considering St Kilda’s mass changes.
GEELONG TO WIN BY 49 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
Geelong @ the -25.5 Line

ADELAIDE ($1.09) VS BRISBANE ($8.00)

AT ADELAIDE OVAL, SATURDAY 22/08, 19:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R13   2015   Brisbane Lions   10.9   (69)   lost to   Adelaide   11.16   (82)   at G
Line: Crows -43.5, Lions +43.5
Adelaide participated in a glorified training drill last Saturday at Etihad Stadium, running around red and black witch’s hats at will. That may sound like a harsh way to describe the situation, but when a team kicks 18.3 in the second half to run away to a 112 point win, the effort of the opposition is always going to be questioned. The Crows were given so many simple scoring chances that it is difficult to assess just how good they were. Patrick Dangerfield carried on his outstanding recent form, which has seen him shorten in Brownlow markets. The massive win against Essendon has put Adelaide in the box seat for that final top eight position, but key encounters against West Coast and Geelong will determine the final outcome.
The Brisbane Lions finally ended an 11 game losing streak, defeating Carlton by a surprising large 64 points. In a rare highlight of its 2015 season, Brisbane completely destroyed Carlton on the outside to register 116 more uncontested possessions. In fact, the Lions almost ended the game with more uncontested possessions than the Blues had total disposals, finishing 275 to 289. Justin Leppitsch desperately needed this win, a victory that has now seen his side off the bottom of the ladder.
Adelaide will be looking for another percentage boost to keep Geelong at bay.
ADELAIDE TO WIN BY 38 POINTS
No Suggested Bet

NORTH MELBOURNE ($1.72) VS FREMANTLE ($2.15)

AT ETIHAD STADIUM, SUNDAY 23/08, 13:10
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R8   2015   Fremantle   17.13   (115)   dftd   North Melbourne   5.12   (42)   at DS
Line: North -5.5, Freo +5.5
North Melbourne were on the brink of an upset loss against St Kilda, before finally settling in the second half and running away to a comfortable victory. The Saints were genuinely all over North Melbourne early, with a 20 point deficit not truly indicating the gap between the two sides at the main break. The Kangaroos finally kicked into gear during the third term to kick 9 goals to 2, led by 6 goals to Drew Petrie and Lindsay Thomas combined. The 45 point turnaround ensured momentum had finally swung and North Melbourne would run away to a comfortable win. North now faces three tricky encounters against Fremantle, the Dogs and Richmond to hold its top eight position. Jack Ziebell misses through suspension.
Fremantle were terrible in the first quarter against West Coast and it ultimately cost them the game. You can’t afford to be giving up six goals leads against a top two opponent, especially one that was missing key players. Some people are creating conspiracy theories that Ross Lyon deliberately tanked the first quarter to make a win unlikely and therefore keep Hawthorn out of the top two. If he did so it worked, but what sane coach would ever gamble on his teams form with such tactics? I guess if there was ever a coach that could, it would be Ross Lyon. I’m very interested in Fremantle’s performance this week, as there hasn’t been much to be excited about over the past two months. Silvagni has been suspended for four weeks after that nasty elbow on Jamie Cripps, while Matthew Pavlich has been as good as rested.
North Melbourne were $2.00 outsiders on Wednesday afternoon, which was outstanding value. I’d love to see Fremantle prove me wrong.
NORTH MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 12 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.25

CARLTON ($2.95) VS MELBOURNE ($1.40)

AT THE MCG, SUNDAY 23/08, 15:20
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R4   2014   Carlton   7.16   (58)   lost to   Melbourne   12.9   (81)   at the MCG
Line: Blues +15.5, Dees -15.5
Carlton started the game brilliantly against Brisbane with six first quarter goals, but could only manage another 3 goals for the game. The Lions ran away with the game to not only get the points, by relegate Carlton to the bottom of the table. This is not a game you can blame on tanking for draft picks, as both sides are likely to take different players with the number one pick anyway. Brisbane are heavily linked with Josh Schache from the Murray Bushrangers, while Carlton have always been keen on Dandenong’s Jacob Weitering. The Blues really have no excuses. Lachie Henderson won’t play another game for the Blues after requesting a trade.
How difficult has it become to read Melbourne this season? After defeating Collingwood and producing a competitive effort against North Melbourne, the Dees completely capitulated against the Western Bulldogs in its worst performance of 2015. The final 98 point margin was probably a good result considering the scoreboard read 12.4.76 to 0.2.2 at the 9 minute mark of the second quarter. Melbourne weren’t competitive during that time, almost as if they had conceded the Etihad Stadium curse had already defeated them. The Dogs were outstanding, but a score line of 76 to 2 should never happen at that level. Thankfully Melbourne didn’t completely lay down to keep the Dogs goalless during the third quarter, but all that good work became obsolete when it conceded another 10 goals in the final term. What a ridiculous game of football.
Both of these clubs are coming off horror outings and will be desperate for a win. Melbourne will be pleased this game has been drawn at the MCG and would love to find a way to avoid Etihad Stadium forever.
MELBOURNE TO WIN BY 24 POINTS
No Suggested Bet

WEST COAST ($1.29) VS WESTERN BULLDOGS ($3.65)

AT DOMAIN STADIUM, SUNDAY 23/08, 16:40
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: R1   2015   Western Bulldogs   14.13   (97)   dftd   West Coast   14.3   (87)   at ES
Line: Eagles -21.5, Dogs +21.5
West Coast flexed its muscle early against Fremantle in one of the most hyped Derbies ever, kicking 7 goals to 1 to create a 35 point lead at the first break. It was a supreme performance considering the absence of key personnel including Nic Naitanui, Mark LeCras and Jeremy McGovern. The win more importantly has seen the Eagles hold that all important top two position, but Hawthorn are snapping at their heels. With the Hawks finishing the home and away season against Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton, West Coast will need to win its remaining games to claim a home Qualifying Final. The Western Bulldogs and Adelaide away are tricky propositions, but if they can get over those two, a lowly St Kilda wait in Round 23. Everything is in the Eagles hands, which is just the way Adam Simpson would like it. Naitanui and LeCras return for the Eagles, but Schofield and Masten are big outs.
The Western Bulldogs cemented its top four position with an enormous 98 point victory against a hapless Melbourne outfit. The Dogs led by 74 points at the nine minute mark of the second quarter, a true indication of their dominance. They were held goalless in the third quarter, before exploding again to kick 10 final quarter goals. The Dogs must continue winning to hold that top four position, as Sydney have been drawn three very winnable matches to finish the season. Experienced due Matthew Boyd and Liam Picken won’t make the trip west.
The Western Bulldogs have had a tough time against West Coast in Perth recently, as the Eagles hold an 86 point average winning margin over the past three encounters at Domain. West Coast won’t get near that type of margin, but will have far too many attacking options for the Dogs to counter on the wide open spaces of Domain Stadium. Picken and Boyd are big losses for the Dogs.
WEST COAST TO WIN BY 42 POINTS
Suggested Bet:
West Coast @ the -21.5 Line