Welcome to the midseason AFL futures/outrights review. All teams have now played 12 of 22 games at the completion of the bye rounds, which gives us the perfect opportunity to look at the possibilities come seasons end. We’ll have a closer look at the Premiership, Brownlow, Coleman and Rising Star markets and attempt to narrow down the potential winners of each category.
PREMIERSHIP & FINAL LADDER POSITIONS
The premiership market is completely dominated by Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney with all three clubs currently holding odds of $4.00 or less. The Hawks currently hold flag favouritism at $3.30, taking back the mantle recently after the Dockers got off to a flying start to the season. I expect Hawthorn to shorten further over the coming weeks, especially if the form of Fremantle and Sydney continues to slide. You would now consider Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney certainties to finish top four and I would be extremely surprised if the two Grand Finalists didn’t come from these three.
The top four market is at an interesting stage as it now appears there is only one double chance left with Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney likely to claim the top three positions. West Coast are in the box seat with a 9-3 record, but you can’t completely rule out Collingwood and especially Richmond. Despite competing well against Fremantle, Collingwood are yet to defeat a current top eight side. The Pies get a chance to prove themselves with matches against Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs in the coming month. Richmond however have already proven it can match it with the best, claiming important away wins against Fremantle and Sydney. The Tigers face Fremantle, Hawthorn and Collingwood on the way home, but would consider the other games very winnable with only one interstate trip.
History states that there are minimal changes to the top eight at the halfway mark of the season, but the 2015 season looks like bucking that trend. The final positions of the top eight are as open as I can remember. Collingwood and Richmond look relatively safe, leaving six clubs fighting it out for the final two top eight positions. My predicted ladder below actually has the Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide all separated by no more than one win, with percentages ranging by only 103-106. There are key encounters involving all four clubs on the way home, all of which I would consider close to 50/50 contests. We are genuinely set for an exciting end to the season with these clubs. GWS and Port Adelaide aren’t too far behind, but would need plenty to go their way.
Essendon, St Kilda and Melbourne appear to be in the nowhere group where finals prospects are as good as over, but wooden spoon chances are minimal. These clubs really only have pride, development and list management decisions to play for. Carlton look to be fighting itself out of wooden spoon contention with its improved form, seemingly leaving the Queensland based clubs to battle out the unwanted wooden spoon/least wins market.
PREDICTED LADDER AFTER ROUND 23
- Fremantle
- Hawthorn
- Sydney
- West Coast
- Richmond
- Collingwood
- Western Bulldogs
- North Melbourne
________________________ - Geelong
- Adelaide
- GWS Giants
- Port Adelaide
- Essendon
- Melbourne
- St Kilda
- Carlton
- Gold Coast
- Brisbane
BROWNLOW MEDAL
As we all know, Nathan Fyfe is having a season to remember and is a near unbackable favourite at $1.55 for the coveted medal. Some betting agencies have already paid the Fremantle midfielder out, while others are creating new markets around him winning with betting options including “Fyfe Out”, “Fyfe vs Field”, Fyfe to Break Record (35 vote or more)”, “Fyfe to vote in every game”, “Fyfe Winning Margin” and “Does Fyfe have enough?”. The only thing that looks like stopping him is a brain fade that creates suspension, a situation he isn’t exactly immune from. Below is the Top 18 vote getters based on our game by game predictions, which sees Nathan Fyfe 13 votes clear of any other player. As always, I have included the total number of Extra Potential Poll Games (EPPG) of each player.
Nathan Fyfe – 28 votes, 0 x EPPG
Matthew Priddis – 15 votes, 3 x EPPG
Daniel Hannebery – 15 votes, 1 x EPPG
Sam Mitchell – 15 votes, 1 x EPPG
Dylan Shiel – 12 votes, 3 x EPPG
Luke Hodge – 12 votes, 0 x EPPG
Luke Parker – 11 votes, 2 x EPPG
Todd Goldstein – 11 votes, 1 x EPPG
David Armitage – 11 votes, 1 x EPPG
Bernie Vince – 11 votes, 0 x EPPG
Scott Pendlebury – 10 votes, 2 x EPPG
Dayne Beams – 10 votes, 2 x EPPG
Lachie Neale – 9 votes, 2 x EPPG
Patrick Dangerfield – 9 votes, 1 x EPPG
Trent Cotchin – 9 votes, 1 x EPPG
Travis Boak – 9 votes, 0 x EPPG
Brandon Ellis – 9 votes, 0 x EPPG
Josh Kennedy (WCE) – 9 votes, 0 x EPPG
Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle) – $1.55
This Brownlow Medal is all about Nathan Fyfe and it isn’t hard to see why. He is ranked first in the competition for the following categories, total disposals, total contested possessions, total clearances and total effective disposals. He is also ranked third for contested marks, making him next to an impossible match up in the air when running through the midfield. We have him polling in every match of the season to date, with the Richmond loss the only doubtful encounter of him missing votes. Suspension and injury are now his only enemies, but even if he does get injured, you suspect he already has enough votes to win.
Daniel Hannebery (Sydney) – $12.00
If it wasn’t for Nathan Fyfe, we’d probably be raving about Daniel Hannebery’s outstanding season. He is easily recording career best numbers, including an average of 30.3 disposals per game. He does have to fight for votes with the likes of Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy in the midfield, but proved in 2013 that the umpires do take notice of him with 21 votes. A near certainty to finish top five and great value at $7.00 with Fyfe excluded from the outright market.
Matthew Priddis (West Coast) – $16.00
The 2014 Brownlow Medallist is attracting far more attention from punters after his upset win last year. The fact that West Coast are winning more games this season makes him an even better prospect. You can also argue that Priddis is having an even better season than last, averaging 30.25 disposals compared to 28.5 last year. He does have more competition for votes this year though, with the likes of Kennedy and Gaff having outstanding seasons. I currently have Priddis on 15 votes with 3 extra potential poll games. He polled with a majority of extra potential poll games last year, which is something to keep in mind. He is favourite for the outright market excluding Fyfe at $5.00.
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) – $18.00
Scott Pendlebury just doesn’t play bad footy and 2015 is no exception. He is always high in the Brownlow markets and it isn’t hard to see why. He is averaging 27.7 disposals per game and is part of a Collingwood side that is winning plenty of matches. The only question mark on Pendlebury is that he is spending far more time forward, which could affect his numbers in the second half of the season. There are also question marks on a niggling injury.
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) – $23.00
I’m slightly surprised that Sam Mitchell isn’t shorter than $23.00 as he is having a prolific season. You get the feeling that there are still quite a few punters licking their wounds after his dramatic Brownlow plunge a couple of years back. He is averaging near career best disposal averages at 29.4 per game and has easily been the most consistent Hawthorn player. Many expect Hawthorn to up the ante from now on, which is sure to play into Mitchell’s hands. He is value at $9.00 for the market excluding Fyfe.
Prediction: Only suspension or injury will stop Nathan Fyfe from claiming his first Brownlow Medal.
COLEMAN MEDAL
The Coleman Medal is usually open at this point of the season, but West Coast’s Josh Kennedy has created a massive 10 goal lead to his next rival after only 12 games. The big full forward from the west has now shortened to $1.50 for the Coleman in odds that are similar to Nathan Fyfe’s dominance in Brownlow betting. There is probably just one man capable of catching Kennedy in Franklin, but suspension is likely to make that even more difficult.
Josh Kennedy (West Coast) – 46 Goals – $1.50
Kennedy is in career best form with 46 goals from 12 games, creating a ten goal Coleman Medal lead as stated earlier. His big haul of goals to date has coincided with West Coast’s outstanding form, which sees it currently placed 9-3. He is capable of bags as we have seen this year, including a haul of 10 and two six goal performances during the 2015 season. Kennedy has been struggling with a hyperextended elbow which may eventually need surgery, but that potential procedure can wait until the end of the season.
Lance Franklin (Sydney) – 36 Goals – $11.00
If there was any player who could catch Josh Kennedy, it was Buddy. Unfortunately for him suspension will greatly lower his chances after he cleaned up Shane Edwards in a nasty incident. Coming into the Richmond game, Franklin had kicked 14 goals in three games and started well on Rance with two goals in the first half. After the Edwards incident though, Franklin dropped his head and Rance took full advantage. He’ll need everything to go right when he returns to get close to Kennedy.
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) – 35 Goals – $9.00
Jeremy Cameron has already passed his 2014 season tally of 29 goals, after his year was plagued by injury. 2015 has seen him hit similar highs to his breakout 2013 season when he kicked 62 goals and earned All Australian selection. While there have been quiet patches, he has managed to kick at least one goal every game this season. Unfortunately key injuries to the Giants could have an effect on his supply, but I’m sure he’ll become a Coleman Medallist during his career.
Jack Riewoldt (Richmond) – 34 Goals – $7.00
Jack Riewoldt is in career best form and while he is already a dual Coleman Medallist, goal kicking isn’t his number one priority this year. He has been playing a far more team orientated role in 2015, which has seen him further up the ground and even acting as a decoy at times. He is still kicking plenty of goals, but in his current form, you’d suspect he could be up with Kennedy’s tally if played deeper. Don’t expect him be changing roles any time soon.
Prediction: Like Fyfe with the Brownlow, Josh Kennedy is close to a certainty to claim his first Coleman Medal.
RISING STAR
As we are usually accustomed to with the Rising Star award at this time of the year, there is a gap beginning to emerge. Excluding Danyle Pearce in 2006, Daniel Talia in 2012 and Lewis Taylor last year, there has generally been a clear favourite at this point of the season that has gone on to win the trophy. This year it appears to be Carlton’s Patrick Cripps, who has now shortened to $1.70 for the award. Jesse Hogan is still well and truly in contention, but Cripps has become an elite inside midfielder faster than anyone would have expected. The Rising Star has more often than not been awarded to a midfielder, but there has been a sprinkling of key position winners including Nick Holland, Justin Koschitzke, Nick Riewoldt, Jared Rivers and Daniel Talia. There is still plenty of water to pass under the bridge this season, but I feel we are already down to two players.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) – $1.70
Carlton fans haven’t had a lot to cheer for in 2015, but Patrick Cripps is singlehandedly giving them hope that the future is going to be exciting. The inside midfielder is leading Carlton for contested possessions and clearances, despite having names like Murphy, Judd and Gibbs beside him. His 193cm and 90kg frame is key position size, which makes him very difficult to move off the ball. He is now beginning to earn the respect of opposition sides, which is leading to him occasionally getting tagged before Murphy. If he continues producing his current numbers, the award will be his.
Jesse Hogan (Melbourne) – $5.00
The big burly forward is the great white hope of the Melbourne Football Club and he is more than living up to the expectations. Despite only making his debut this season, Hogan has become Melbourne’s number one focal point up forward and he hasn’t let them down. He is averaging 2.4 contested marks per game, with only Hawkins and Casboult averaging more in the competition. He is also having an impact on the scoreboard, kicking 22 goals and averaging 6.6 score involvements per game. He has drifted in betting since missing a game with hamstring tightness, which was more precautionary than anything.
Prediction: Both Cripps and Hogan would be worthy Rising Stars winners. Cripps is producing some ridiculous contested and clearance numbers, which could well see him win the Carlton best and fairest. His $1.70 odds are more than justified.
