Welcome to the 2014 AFL Grand Final Preview. The last Saturday in September has arrived and we have the best two performed sides of 2014 fighting it out for the coveted Premiership Cup. Sydney and Hawthorn will meet for the third time this season after victories over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide respectively in the Preliminary Finals. Sydney had a relatively bruise free encounter against the Kangaroos and ran away to a comfortable 71 point result, but Hawthorn had to fight until the final siren for survival. The Hawks led by 28 points as late as the 20 minute of the final quarter, before a barnstorming Port Adelaide comeback left Alastair Clarkson and his men shell-shocked. The Power kicked the final four goals of the game to go down by 3 points, regretting several missed shots on goal in the first quarter that should have been converted. The Hawthorn faithful breathed a huge sigh of relief, but now face an even tougher test in Sydney who have the very familiar face of Lance Franklin looking to inflict pain on his former teammates.
BEST BET
Sydney at the -2.5 Quarter Time Line
GRAND FINAL
SYDNEY ($1.60) VS HAWTHORN ($2.40)
AT THE MCG, SATURDAY 27/09, 14:30
PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER: 2014 R18 Hawthorn 15.14 (104) dftd Sydney 13.16 (94) at the MCG
Line: Sydney -8.5, Hawthorn +8.5
I doubt the Sydney Swans could have left a more forceful exclamation mark on the Preliminary Final against North Melbourne. It put the acid on the Roos early with a typically fast start to lead by 21 points at quarter time, before gradually pushing away for the remainder of the match to a defining 71 point margin. Inside 50, the Swans were particularly dangerous taking 27 marks from 69 entries. Franklin and Tippett kicked 9 goals between them, while Goodes and Parker chimed in with 3 goals each. The Swans have averaged the most inside 50 entrances in 2014 with 56.8 per game and hold a massive advantage with so many small and tall options pushing Hawthorn’s limited defensive stocks. It was also ferocious at the contest and despite having more of the footy, Sydney out tackled North Melbourne 61-50. It is no surprise that the Swans tackling pressure was high on such a big stage, as it averages two more a game than any other side in the competition. There are still small question marks on the fitness of Sam Reid, Nick Malceski and Heath Grundy, but all three have been named and are expected to play. Sydney looks in peak condition to win its third Premiership in ten seasons.
As I stated earlier, Hawthorn looked in serious danger of giving up a Grand Final berth when Port Adelaide began storming home in time on of the fourth quarter. Whether the Hawks thought they had their Grand Final position sewn up or not, the Port Adelaide intensity lifted dramatically when it got a sniff of victory. The Hawks had a convincing 48-34 win for clearances, but was soundly beaten for contested ball 139-153, which is sure to be giving Clarkson concerns. The Hawks average two goals per game more than any other side, but you get the feeling it will be Hawthorn putting in the greater time on Sydney’s attacking options. Lake is likely to go to Tippett and Josh Gibson looks set to take on his great mate Buddy. He’ll give up 9 centimetres and approximately 7-8 kilograms, but the Hawks seem confident he is the best option after years of one on one battles at training. Clarkson is also faced with one of the biggest selection dilemmas in recent Grand Final history, whether to play Cyril Rioli or not. Rioli got through the VFL Grand Final unscathed, but hardly hit speeds any greater than 70-80%. He has been named and is likely to now start without the vest. Ben McEvoy has also come into the side, at the expense of the desperately unlucky Jonathon Ceglar. Jordan Lewis suffered a nasty corked thigh in the Preliminary Final, but has been managed through the week and is a certain starter.
Sydney and Hawthorn have met twice in 2014, with each side winning its home fixture. Hawthorn will be looking to keep the Swans forward entries to a minimum. In Round 8 Hawthorn conceded 65 I50 entrances and the Swans had a comfortable 19 point victory. In Round 18 though, the Hawks managed to keep Sydney down to 49 I50s and won the game, but Franklin and Tippett still had 12 shots on goal between them. The likes of Birchall, Suckling and Stratton will need to play selfless roles by continuously filing holes, which could affect their attacking games. The Swans paid the big bucks for the gun forwards and I think it is going to win them a flag. It has been a risky list management strategy that is going to pay handsomely. I like the Swans both at the quarter time line and full time line.
SYDNEY TO WIN BY 25 POINTS
NORM SMITH MEDAL
The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the best player on the ground in the Grand Final and has become a betting favourite for punters on the big day. The honour board is filed with legends of the code that have lifted for the most important match of the season, including the likes of Bruce Doull, Simon Madden, Gary Ablett Snr, James Hird, Nathan Buckley and Chris Judd. Here are my thoughts on the best options available.
LANCE FRANKLIN – $8.00
It is no surprise to see Buddy as a joint favourite. The man is having the time of his life in Sydney and has been centre of attention all week playing his former team in the Grand Final. He comes into the Saturday in the form of his life, averaging 5.75 goals and 19.5 possessions over his last 4 games. If he kicks a bag, lock in Normy for Buddy.
LUKE PARKER – $8.00
The big bodied midfielder come forward has had a breakout season that now sees him joint favourite for the Norm Smith. He has Norm Smith winning traits with the ability to gather stacks of possessions and kick multiple goals. His overhead marking is also an attribute that is likely to get noticed in a GF. Coming off a 3 goal, 26 possession game in the Prelim, he is a great chance.
JOSH KENNEDY – $8.00
The third Sydney player at the top of the market at $8.00, JPK just doesn’t play bad games. He is a monster at the stoppages who can’t be moved and his regarded as one of, if not the best clearance/contested player in the competition. If he can get himself double figure clearances and 15-20 contested possessions, he’ll be in the reckoning.
DANIEL HANNEBERY – $11.00
This is where the value sits for the Norm Smith market. Dan Hannebery missed quite a bit of footy midseason through injury before returning Round 20 and slowly his form has risen. He wasn’t outstanding in the Preliminary Final, but averaged 30 possessions for the three games prior to that. He was arguably “robbed” for the Norm Smith in 2012, proving he knows how to perform on the biggest day of the year.
BEN McGLYNN – $16.00
McGlynn has had his best AFL season, averaging 20.72 possessions per game with greater midfield minutes, as well as kicking 23 goals. He is now capable of high possession games with multiple goals, which is always going to bring you into Norm Smith contention. He has a much lower profile, but he is capable.
SAM MITCHELL – $11.00
Sam Mitchell is always one of the shortest priced Hawthorn players when it comes to Norm Smith markets. He had an injury interrupted season, but has still averaged 27.7 possessions from 15 games. He has really stepped it up since Round 23, averaging 30.66 touches in the last three games.
JORDAN LEWIS – $11.00
Definitely the value selection of the Hawks midfielders. Lewis hasn’t had the greatest finals series, but he produced best on after best on throughout the second half of the home and away season. He has the big body to match it with the Sydney midfield giants, while he proved he can kick multiple goals still in the Qualifying Final with 3 goals against the Cats.
LUKE HODGE – $14.00
The 2008 Norm Smith Medallist and Hawthorn captain is as tough as they come. He has been playing through the midfield of late and played a great Preliminary Final, but can go back as the loose man filing the hole and won the medal in that role in 2008.
JARRYD ROUGHEAD – $16.00
Jarryd Roughead is coming off a 6 goal haul in the Preliminary Final and must be considered value on form. Admittedly, it is likely he’ll have to kick another bag to get the medal, but having kicked 70 goals throughout the season to date, that isn’t out of the question.
JACK GUNSTON – $31.00
I had to look twice when I saw Jack Gunston at $31.00. He was extremely unlucky not to be a Norm Smith Medallist last year with his four clutch goals having an enormous influence on the game. He has kicked multiple goals 15 times in 2014 and can build high disposal numbers for someone who plays so deep.
OTHER OPTIONS:
Kieren Jack @ $16.00
Jarrad McVeigh @ $23.00
Shaun Burgoyne @ $26.00
Isaac Smith @ $41.00
Will Langford @ $41.00
Predicted Winner: Lance Franklin @ $8.00
Value Selection: Dan Hannebery @ $11.00
FIRST GOAL SCORER
This market is speculative at the best of times, but everyone loves a first goal scorer bet come Grand Final day. It is difficult to have a consistent strategy on a market like this, as so much luck has to fall your way. But for what it is worth, here are some 2014 statistics to consider.
Multiple First Goal Scorers for Match
Roughead 4
Franklin 3
Breust 3
Tippett, Jack, Parker, Gunston all 2
Multiple First Goal Scorer for Club
Roughead 8
Gunston 7
Franklin 6
Breust, Parker, Reid all 3
Tippett, Jack, Malceski, Goodes, McVeigh all 2
Based on those numbers, statistically you’d be crazy to go outside of Roughead, Gunston and Franklin. In saying that, Breust, Parker and Reid all offer value in the “teens”. Make of those numbers what you will, but they certainly show that the talls of these clubs are targeted early and present your best chances.
Prediction: Jack Gunston @ $11.00
Value: Luke Parker @ $17.00
