I get quite a few comments like “If you rated XXXX at $1.50 why wouldn’t you tip it?” or “That underdog you tipped at $4.00 has zero chance!” so thought I’d just write a little bit about how I see value and the thought process behind some of my selections.
One of the biggest things that some people don’t understand about betting (sports, horse racing or flies going up a wall) is there is always a level of unpredictable variance and every team has some kind of chance in a match. Soccer emphasises this as a single 10-second play can so easily change the result of game. You’re not going to know if there’s going to be a penalty in the game, if there’s going to be an own goal or a number of other small things that can dramatically change the result.
This means that every team has a chance. It’s my job, as a punter, to be better than the marketplace at identifying what chance that is. If I can bet at a better price than my rated price then I can take advantage of it by betting on that result.
You’re always going to lose bets, the idea is that in the long run you are predicting teams chances better than the bookmakers are and will end up ahead.
I’ll often be asked if I rate a team $2.00 (strong favourite in soccer) and you can get $1.97 why I wouldn’t I just back it, but I rate heads a $2.00 chance in a coin flip, would you be happy to take $1.97 about a coin flip, I hope not, if so maybe you should give up the punt.
This comes up with a lot too with underdogs, I might rate a team $5.00 and tip them because $7.0 is available, it doesn’t mean I think they will win, I actually think they will only win 1 in 5 times that the match is played, but bookmakers are offering a price as if they would only win 1 in 7 times the matched is played. So if you’re right and the bookmakers have it wrong, in the long run you’ll end up ahead.
I don’t claim to be any punting genius mind you, if I did I wouldn’t be getting up every morning going to work but you just have to know that in the end you need to be taking value/overs or you’ll never end up on the right side of the ledger.
I love the coin flip analogy, because you’d never take $1.90 about a coin flip, but you’d take $2.10 about a coin flip everyday of the week. Even if something is the same as your rated price there’s no point taking it because you’re just treading water.
Don’t worry about losses because the game itself is completely out of your hands, nothing you can do about it, you just need to be able to assess teams chances better than the bookies do.
Also it is imperative that you use multiple bookmakers, there is no point taking a price when there is a better price available, it’s a hard enough game as it is punting, don’t take less than you could be, you need to be getting the most value that you can. I put up the top prices each week and the bookmakers that offer them because quite often the prices will vary by 0.30+ for favourites and $1.50+ for bigger priced underdogs.
If you have any questions feel free to tweet me @AL_TheProfits. Good luck in your punting and make sure you are always taking value.
