Welcome to The Profits A-League 2017 Semi Finals as it kicks off on Friday night between Sydney FC and Perth Glory at Allianz Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Melbourne Victory/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
With only a few games left in the season I’m glad to see the best value coming through is in the Over/Under markets, as they’ve been the best to us throughout the season. Melbourne Victory/Brisbane is a game that looks to have Overs written all over it. Both sides are not scared to take shots and usually play exciting, free-flowing football. I’m more than happy to take the $1.64 that’s on offer for the Over 2.5 Goals with Sportsbet at the moment.
Next Best Value
Sydney/Perth – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.80
In the other Semi Final I’m actually going the opposite, Under 2.5 Goals. While Perth are a high scoring team, they save that for their home games mostly, not so much on the road. Sydney on the other hand has a strong defense, and they love a 1-0 or 2-0 win, so unders looks a huge chance. At $2.80 I definitely think it’s worth the gamble, I’m pretty confident it will start shorter than that.
Sydney FC v Perth Glory
Saturday 29 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
We’ll find out who’s our first finalist on Saturday night when Sydney host Perth at Allianz Stadium. In Sydney’s last game of the regular season they played Newcastle at home. As you can imagine it was a pretty easy match for them, but it was good to see them run out the regular season as winners. They cruised throughout the match and ended up finishing with an astonishing 70% of the possession, so it’s not surprising that the won the match 2-0. With that win Sydney ended up finishing seventeen points clear of second place on the ladder, a phenomenal effort, they really did dominate this year. Perth went into their Elimination Final as a pretty long priced underdog, and I’ll admit I was the first to not really give them much of a chance. Previously their form on the road had been pretty average, but they were anything but average at AAMI Park on Sunday. Melbourne City owned the majority of the possession, and the shots at target, but that didn’t convert to goals. Perth on the other hand only had six shots for the game, but they were all on target, and two of them beat the keeper. Their unexpected victory has given them a chance to make the final, but they’ll have to be at their absolute best if they want to compete with the Premiers. I’d love to see Perth come out with another performance like they did last week, but I just can’t see it happening. Sydney is clearly the best side this season, they’ve had the week break, and they’re at home. I think they’ll run all over Perth, not letting them into the game at all. Sydney love to win 2-0, so I think taking the Under 2.5 Goals at $2.80 is the best way to go in this one. I’d love to be backing Sydney, but $1.45 is under the odds in my opinion.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 5
Perth 0
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.56
Perth $7.04
Draw $4.61
Market Price:
Sydney $1.45 Sportsbet, TopBetta
Perth $7.00 Unibet
Draw $4.80 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.22
Perth $5.52
Market Price:
Sydney $1.14 Everywhere
Perth $5.60 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.55
Over $1.64
Market Price:
Under $2.80 Unibet
Over $1.45 Sportsbet
Value: Sydney/Perth – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.80
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 30 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
We’ll find out who the second finalist is late Sunday afternoon when Melbourne Victory and Brisbane clash to keep their finals dream alive. Like Sydney, Melbourne Victory had a nice easy kill in Round 27, it was Central Coast at home, and so they got the job done without too much trouble. It did take quite a while for them to break through, but their main man upfront, Berisha, buried his 100th A-League goal with around ten minutes on the clock to give them a 1-0 lead. They held that score line to the final whistle in what was a workman like performance. Throughout the season I’d say they were a bit off Sydney, but they always held down the title of the second best team going around. Brisbane were well fancied going into their Elimination Final against Western Sydney, but they didn’t have it all their own way. Western Sydney actually landed the first blow through Antonis, but shortly after Maclaren leveled things up for Brisbane. From there both teams fought hard but the game ended at 1-1. So it went to overtime, but still the deadlock couldn’t be broken, so finally it went to penalties to split the two sides. Through the first set of five shots, neither team faltered, it was amazingly 5-5, but in the end Brisbane got the better of Western Sydney, and locked away their spot in this Semi Final. Melbourne Victory would have to be extremely disappointed if they didn’t get the win here, they’ve got a great side on paper and with the week off, they’ll all be fresh and ready to go. I almost think they’re worth backing too, but I want just a little more value than the current $1.83 on offer. What does interest me though is the $1.64 for Over 2.5 Goals. These sides never usually have trouble finding the back of the net; so 3+ goals should be easily covered.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 1
Brisbane 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.70
Brisbane $5.43
Draw $4.40
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.83 Unibet
Brisbane $4.33 Sportsbet
Draw $3.80 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.31
Brisbane $4.19
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.37 Unibet
Brisbane $3.32 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.38
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.43 Unibet
Over $1.64 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Brisbane – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
