Welcome to The Profits Round 27 of the 2017 A-League kicks off on Friday night and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.96
I know Wellington will be up against it this week, but I was really taken with their draw against Sydney last Saturday, enough so that I’m putting my faith in them to back that up with another strong performance. I am sticking to the Draw No Bet market as a bit of insurance, but you’re still getting $3.96, which is great I think.
Next Best Value
Sydney/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.10
I’m really keen on the Unders in this game. Sydney have such a strong defense, and with no real need to go out and win this game, I can see them parking the bus for big portions of the match. A 1-0 or 2-0 victory wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Best Value:
1st: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.96
2nd: Sydney/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.10
3rd: Wellington – Head to Head – $5.00
4th: Adelaide – Head to Head – $3.10
Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners
Friday 14 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
It’s the last round of the regular season and it kicks off with an extremely one-sided affair. And with Melbourne Victory locking down second position on the table, and Central Coast not being able to make the finals, this could turn into a bit of a “dead rubber”. Melbourne Victory travelled up the coast to face Western Sydney last week in what turned out to be a pretty boring draw. Throughout the ninety minutes there was only three shots on target from both teams combined, and none of those found the back of the net. Melbourne Victory got the point they needed to secure second position, so they can rest a little easier this week. There was nothing wrong with Central Coast’s efforts last Sunday. They hosted Newcastle, and disposed of them with relative ease. They scored a goal in each half and kept Newcastle off the board. As I mentioned before the season is over for them, but there’s still a small chance they could finish with the wooden spoon, so they’d want to try and avoid that you’d think. If Melbourne Victory come to play, they will just win, it’s just a matter if they really do care about this match. With nothing on the line for either team, I’m happy to sit this game out.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 4
Central Coast 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.44
Central Coast $8.80
Draw $5.17
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.33 Everywhere
Central Coast $9.00 Everywhere
Draw $5.30 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.16
Central Coast $7.10
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.10 Everywhere
Central Coast $7.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.88
Over $1.35
Market Price:
Under $3.50 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.30 Bet365
Value: No value
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets
Saturday 15 April, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
The premiers get what should be a nice easy run into the finals as they host Newcastle on Saturday. Sydney were a little lackluster last week, but with the top spot on the table secured a couple weeks before, there was no reason for them to come out and play their best football. Their game was against Wellington, and it was on the road, so not the easiest of tasks. They had a 1-0 lead going into injury time, but McGlinchey saved Wellington in the dying minutes and turned the game into a draw. Newcastle were poor on Sunday, they were playing away, but it was to Central Coast, so I expected a little more from them. They went down 2-0, and never really looked a likely chance either. After that loss, they’ve all but locked in the wooden spoon for themselves, and that’s not something to be proud of. Much like Melbourne Victory, if Sydney turn up and want to play, it should be an easy win for them. I’m happy to go with the Under 2.5 Goals option at $3.10. Sydney games are often low scoring, and without any ambition to go out and win the game, I can see this easily finishing with only one or two goals between both sides.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 5
Newcastle 0
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.44
Newcastle $9.17
Draw $5.09
Market Price:
Sydney $1.29 Sportsbet
Newcastle $10.00 Bet365
Draw $6.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.16
Newcastle $7.37
Market Price:
Sydney $1.08 Bet365
Newcastle $8.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.38
Over $1.73
Market Price:
Under $3.10 Bet365
Over $1.36 Bet365, Unibet
Value: Sydney/Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals – $3.10
Newcastle – Head to Head – $10.00
Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 15 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
It’s taken till the third game of the round, but we finally have a game of some importance. All the finals spots have already been locked in, but some sides still can change their fate of where they finish in the top six. One of those sides is Western Sydney, they’re currently sitting in sixth, but a win here could bump them up to fourth. Adelaide will have something to say about that though because they don’t want to slip down to the dreaded wooden spoon. Adelaide were ok last round, they played Melbourne City at AAMI Park, which is a tough road match. They kept it up to Melbourne City the whole game, but a moment of brilliance from Cahill won the game for Melbourne City. Western Sydney would have been disappointed with their draw against Melbourne Victory last week, but a draw is better than a loss. It wasn’t the most enthralling match either, by the time the final whistle was blown neither team had found a goal. They’ll want to show more this week as a win or even a draw might move them up to fifth place as Perth has a tough game against Melbourne City this week. To be honest, I really couldn’t split the two teams, I rated them the same price in what should be a cracking match. Adelaide have gone up the underdogs, so I think I have to go their way. The $2.20 in the Draw No Bet market is probably the safer option, but the $3.10 Head to Head is better value, I think.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 1
Western Sydney 1
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.76
Western Sydney $2.76
Draw $3.68
Market Price:
Adelaide $3.10 Bet365
Western Sydney $2.30 Unibet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.00
Western Sydney $2.00
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.20 Bet365
Western Sydney $1.64 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.69 Sportsbet
Over $1.52 Unibet
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $3.10
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $2.20
Brisbane Roar v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 16 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane host Wellington in a match that they’ll be desperate to win to give them a chance to move up to third position going into finals. Brisbane had one of the toughest fixtures on the year last week in my opinion, away to Perth. And unsurprisingly they came away with zero points. Perth led early, but Brisbane tied it up shortly into the second half. They couldn’t stop Perth late in the game though who overran them with a couple more goals, but as I said, it’s always a tough game at NIB Stadium. Wellington landed a point out of their game against Sydney last week, I didn’t see that coming. Granted Sydney probably weren’t going at 100%, but it’s still a good effort. Unfortunately for Wellington they’re going to finish the season in seventh position, nothing can change that, but they’ll hope to end the season firing I think. It’s not going to be a walk in the park for them, but Brisbane have what it takes to get it done here, and they have more on the line which doesn’t hurt. It’s probably a silly move, but after last week’s game, I think Wellington in the Draw No Bet market is the way to go. Near enough to $4.00 seems a great price to me!
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.09
Wellington $3.85
Draw $3.81
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.67 Unibet
Wellington $5.00 Everywhere
Draw $4.20 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.54
Wellington $2.84
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.29 Bet365
Wellington $3.96 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.75
Over $1.57
Market Price:
Under $2.65 Unibet
Over $1.50 Bet365
Value: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $3.96
Wellington – Head to Head – $5.00
Perth Glory v Melbourne City
Sunday 16 April, 7:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
The last game of the home and away season is over at NIB Stadium, and it’s probably the most interesting of the round. Both Perth and Melbourne City have a lot to be won or lost on this game, with home ground advantage so important going into finals. Perth were great last Saturday, they were hosting Brisbane and in a solid all-round game they came out 3-1 victors. They’re a great home side, so securing the best place possible going into to finals is crucial for them. It would take a lot, but if they could win by four goals, they could possibly move up into third place on the table, but a loss could see them drop to sixth. Melbourne City earnt a solid enough three points last week when they hosted Adelaide. They were fully expected to win the match, and although it was only a 1-0 win, they got all three points which is what matters. What I do know is they’ll need more moments of brilliance from Cahill, just like he showed in his game winning goal. Tough game, two top sides with plenty to play for. It was hard to split them, but I’ve got to give the nod to Perth, NIB Stadium is becoming a fortress for them, and I think they’ll pull out everything this week to give themselves the best chance in finals. Unfortunately, bookmakers look to have all these prices spot on, so I think I’ll just be watching this one.
Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Melbourne City 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.56
Melbourne City $2.99
Draw $3.64
Market Price:
Perth $2.28 Unibet
Melbourne City $3.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw $3.75 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.86
Melbourne City $2.17
Market Price:
Perth $1.67 Bet365
Melbourne City $2.23 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.85
Over $1.35
Market Price:
Under $3.11 Sportsbet
Over $1.36 Bet365
Value: No value
