Welcome to The Profits Round 26 of the 2017 A-League kicks off on Friday night and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Melbourne City/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
This is another round where value looks to be few and far between, but hopefully we can snag what is available. The best value of the weekend looks to be the Unders in Melbourne City and Adelaide. This is by no means a lock, but at $2.88 I think it’s definitely worth a crack, this game has a tight, “ninety minute slog” written all over it.
Next Best Value
Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.58
Next best looks to go the other way with Overs looking very attractive in Central Coast/Newcastle. Both team have pretty poor defenses, and shouldn’t have any issues finding the back of the net at least a couple of times.
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne City/Adelaide – under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
2nd: Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.58
3rd: Western Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.90
4th: Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.10
Melbourne City v Adelaide United
Friday 7 April, 7:50pm (AET) – AAMI Park
Game one of the round is on Friday night at AAMI Park as Melbourne City host Adelaide. Melbourne City is coming off the hardest fixture of the 2016/17 season, Sydney away, so it is of no surprise to see that they couldn’t match it with the best on the league. They kept the scores tied up to half time, but after that they couldn’t hold on anymore and Sydney ended up running away with a convincing 3-0 win. Adelaide hosted Perth last Friday and got off to the dream start as McGowan found the back of the net in the first half an hour. That wasn’t enough though as Perth fought back through Castro who leveled things up near the break. From that point on both teams had their chances, but neither could break through, so both sides had to settle for just the one point. Melbourne City should have no trouble bouncing back this week against Adelaide, especially being back at home. They’ve got a lot more to play for than Adelaide, and I think you’ll see that this week. The straight out markets look pretty bang on, but I’m more than happy with the $2.88 available for Under 2.5 Goals, I’m pretty sure it should be rated closer to $2.35.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Adelaide 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.53
Adelaide $7.30
Draw $4.76
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.60 Sportsbet, TopBetta
Adelaide $5.30 Unibet
Draw $4.25 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.21
Adelaide $5.76
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.25 Everywhere
Adelaide $4.10 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.35
Over $1.74
Market Price:
Under $2.88 Bet365
Over $1.49 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC
Saturday 8 April, 5:35pm (AET) – Westpac Stadium
We’ve got a Saturday triple-header this week, with the first game kicking off at 5:35pm AET over in New Zealand with Wellington hosting the league leaders in Sydney. Wellington is coming off a massive win against Melbourne Victory last Sunday. It was a road match, and they won 3-0, I still can’t work out how it happened. That now takes their aggregate score over the past two games too 8-0. They’re still not in a finals position, but if they can sneak their way in somehow, they’re at least in the right kind of form to make their presence known. Sydney did what Sydney continues to do, win. They hosted Melbourne City and had little trouble disposing of them. While dominating, they couldn’t find the goals in the first half, but that all changed after the break. They banged in three, and continued their ever-impressive form. Sydney “should” win this match, but it’s just a matter of how much they really want it, as it makes no difference to their season now. Even though I think Sydney will win, the fact that they don’t need to win, and Wellington has been in scintillating form means I’m sitting this one out.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $4.49
Sydney $1.90
Draw $3.99
Market Price:
Wellington $3.75 Unibet
Sydney $1.91 Bet365
Draw $4.00 Bet365, TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $3.36
Sydney $1.42
Market Price:
Wellington $2.85 Unibet
Sydney $1.44 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.83
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $2.75 Unibet
Over $1.49 Sportsbet
Value: No value
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 8 April, 7:50pm (AET) – ANZ Stadium
The second of the triple-header matches looks a cracker on paper; it’s Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory, who are both scrounging for points in the last few games of the season. Western Sydney was really good last week. They played away at Hunter Stadium against Newcastle, and even though they were the better side, you never quite know how those kinds of games will play out. Whilst Newcastle did dominate a good percentage of the possession, they didn’t produce all that many good chances, whereas western Sydney did a lot with what they had. The end result was an easy 3-0 win to Western Sydney. Melbourne Victory had one of their most disappointing days out last weekend. They hosted Wellington, in a match that looked like an easy three points for them, but they just never got into the match. They ended up losing 3-0, in a result that no one seen coming. This looks a very tight one; it’s hard to pick either way. Think I’ll lean to Melbourne Victory, as a win here will lock in second place on the table for them. Another game were I think the Under 2.5 Goals is the way to go, it looks the best value of the match, but I could also be talked into backing Melbourne Victory, the fact that they’ve gone up as the underdogs is quite surprising.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.95
Melbourne Victory $2.61
Draw $3.59
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.38 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.90 TopBetta
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.13
Melbourne Victory $1.88
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.73 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.10 Bet365, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.54
Over $1.65
Market Price:
Under $2.90 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over $1.41 Unibet
Value: Western Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.90
Melbourne Victory – Draw No Bet – $2.10
Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.90
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 8 April, 10:00pm (AET) – NIB Stadium
We’ve got two teams here fighting to get as high as they can on the ladder before the seasons up with finals on the cards for both of them, it’s Perth and Brisbane. Perth had a fair performance last Friday, it was against Adelaide at Hindmarsh, and so they went into the game as a slight favourite. They were straight on the back foot though as Adelaide scored early but that didn’t stop them fighting. It took a while, but Castro found an equaliser for Perth. By the time the final whistle came around, both sides had to be happy with a draw as the scores stayed 1-1. Brisbane was very dominant at home last week. They were hosting Central Coast, so it was always going to be a walk in the park for them, but they didn’t rest on their laurels, and really put the sword to Central Coast. The final score was 5-1, but the goal difference could of easily been higher. Perth should be able to get back to their winning ways this week now that they are back at NIB Stadium, where they play their best football. This is another game where the marked up prices from the bookies look spot on (or unders), so I’ll happily sit on the sidelines for this one too.
Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Brisbane 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.29
Brisbane $3.39
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Perth $2.38 Bet365
Brisbane $2.90 Sportsbet
Draw $3.80 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.67
Brisbane $2.49
Market Price:
Perth $1.76 Unibet
Brisbane $2.21 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.34
Over $1.43
Market Price:
Under $2.90 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over $1.41 Unibet
Value: No value
Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle jets
Sunday 9 April, 5:00pm (AET) – Bluetongue Stadium
The final game of the round looks a little lackluster, with both sides not playing finals, but there is still a match to be played, which means there is still money to be made. Central Coast were on the road to Brisbane last Sunday and they really got torn apart. They never really looked likely in the match, even though they scored the first goal, Brisbane scored the next five. Right now all Central Coast can hope for is to avoid possibly another wooden spoon. Newcastle weren’t any better, they lost 3-0 to Western Sydney, and they were playing at home. They’ve lost their way lately and they’ll just be counting down the days until the season is all over. Hard to tip a winner here, but if my arm was twisted I’d lean to Newcastle, just. Couldn’t trust either of these sides enough to back them, but they both have poor defenses, so I’m happy to take the $1.58 for Over 2.5 Goals.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Newcastle 2
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.88
Newcastle $2.61
Draw $3.72
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.45 Bet365
Newcastle $2.75 Bet365
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.11
Newcastle $1.90
Market Price:
Central Coast $1.80 Bet365, Unibet
Newcastle $2.03 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.13
Over $1.32
Market Price:
Under $2.55 Unibet
Over $1.58 Sportsbet
Value: Central Coast/Newcastle – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.58
