Welcome to The Profits A-League Round 25 2017 Preview as it kicks off with Adelaide hosting Perth on Friday night at the Hindmarsh Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Brisbane/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
In a tough round as far as tips go, I think the Unders in Brisbane/Central Coast looks the best value of the round. Central Coast’s defense has been getting better as the season has gone on, and Brisbane isn’t the most attacking of teams, I could easily see this being a 1-0 match, and at $2.88 for Under 2.5 Goals, I think it’s a solid play.
Next Best Value
Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.25
This Newcastle/Western Sydney looks a tight one to me, and if anything I have to give the edge to Newcastle, so I was surprised to see the market leaning the other way. I’m a little cautious of Western Sydney though, so the $2.25 in the Draw No Bet market seems the ideal option.
Best Value:
1st: Brisbane/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
2nd: Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.25
3rd: Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.05
4th: Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.50
Adelaide United v Perth Glory
Friday 31 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
The third last round of the season gets under way on Friday night with what looks like a tight match between Adelaide and Perth at Hindmarsh Stadium. Adelaide is coming off a solid enough win against Central Coast last round. They were favourite for the match, but I had my doubts, they proved me wrong though winning the game 3-2. The season is all over for Adelaide, but after that win they’ll surely want to round the year out with another win or two. Perth was extremely poor last week, no other way to put it. They were against the now crowned premiers Sydney, but being at home I thought they’d put in a good showing. It wasn’t to be though, Sydney won the match 3-0, and Perth never really got into the match. They need to fight hard in these last three games to make sure they gain the highest position on the ladder that they can, because home ground advantage is usually huge for them. Very tough one this, but Adelaide look the more likely of the two with the game being played at Hindmarsh Stadium. Books are bang on here in the opening match, I can’t be tempted into anything at the current prices.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Perth 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $2.59
Perth $2.97
Draw $3.60
Market Price:
Adelaide $2.50 Sportsbet, TopBetta
Perth $2.80 Bet365
Draw $3.70 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.87
Perth $2.14
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.87 Unibet
Perth $1.95 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.67
Over $1.37
Market Price:
Under $2.63 Sportsbet
Over $1.49 Unibet
Value: No value
Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney
Saturday 1 April, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Saturday afternoon sees another tight match, this time it’s between Newcastle and Western Sydney. How bad did Newcastle go last week, almost too bad to be true? They had to travel to New Zealand, granted not easy, but to be handed a 5-0 drumming from Wellington, that’s almost unheard of. The stats tell the story as well, they were never in the hunt from the opening kick, to the final whistle. They still have a sniff of that last finals position, but after a performance like that maybe they don’t deserve it anyway. Western Sydney were very good last week, they were playing at home to Melbourne City, and went into the match as favourite. They didn’t let their backers down either with a relatively easy 3-1 victory. They’re the team that’s holding onto that last finals spot and they won’t be giving it up easily. Another tough match to split the sides, but back at home I’m giving Newcastle one last chance. And with the market skewed towards Western Sydney, that makes Newcastle a get on in my books. Prefer them in the Draw No Bet market, as a bit of insurance never hurt anybody.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Western Sydney 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.58
Western Sydney $3.01
Draw $3.56
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.05 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.25 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Bet365, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.86
Western Sydney $2.16
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.25 Unibet
Western Sydney $1.67 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.30
Over $1.77
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Unibet
Over $1.57 Everywhere
Value: Newcastle – Draw No Bet – $2.25
Newcastle – Head to Head – $3.05
Sydney FC v Melbourne City
Saturday 1 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
The newly crowned premiers Sydney will have their work cut out for them as they host Melbourne City who are trying to secure their best possibly position with finals only weeks away. Sydney showed why they’re the premiers with a performance as impressive as any they’ve had this season. They travelled across the country to Perth, a trip that is notoriously hard for road teams, and they never gave the opposition even a look in. They made it look too easy as they walked out 3-0 winners. The only danger for Sydney is if they take the foot off the gas these last three rounds, as it really makes no difference to their end result. Melbourne City performed pretty much as expected in their last game. It was against Western Sydney, and away, so it was going to be a tough one. They scored an early goal, but that didn’t help them as Western Sydney ran over the top of them for the rest of the match. Dropping three points could cost them come finals, so they’ll need to make sure they get everything they can out of the remaining games. If Sydney plays up to their ability they’ll just win, it’s that simple. I can’t have a bet in this, I think Sydney will win, but will they be trying 100%, I don’t know. Another sit out match.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 0
Melbourne City 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.63
Melbourne City $5.93
Draw $4.61
Market Price:
Sydney $1.75 Everywhere
Melbourne City $4.50 Bet365
Draw $3.90 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.27
Melbourne City $4.64
Market Price:
Sydney $1.33 Bet365
Melbourne City $3.35 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.43
Over $1.70
Market Price:
Under $2.32 Unibet
Over $1.62 Bet365
Value: No value
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 2 April, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
All Melbourne Victory need from their matchup with Wellington is a point to secure themselves second spot on the ladder, but I know they’ll be fighting hard for all three. Melbourne Victory were a touch disappointing last week, I thought they might wrap up their second place on the table there and then, but they’ll have to wait after their scoreless effort against Brisbane. Now Brisbane is a solid team, and the game was at Suncorp Stadium, so you can’t take too much away from them, but I guess we all expect a little more from them (and Sydney) than we do from other teams. How about Wellington’s effort last Sunday, has to be the best game they’ve played all season. They were hosting Newcastle, so not the most difficult task, but it was the way they put them away. By the time the goals had stopped the score was 5-0, and Newcastle didn’t know what hit them. Wellington still have a hope of playing finals, and they need to land points when they can, this might be a little tough for them, but you never know. A Wellington win would make the final two weeks more interesting, but I can’t see any chance of it. On paper it looks like if Melbourne Victory turn up, they’ll win. Happy with Over 2.5 Goals in this one, can see Melbourne Victory finding the back of the net three times themselves, let alone any goals Wellington might score.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Wellington 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.54
Wellington $7.32
Draw $4.66
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55 Everywhere
Wellington $6.00 Bet365
Draw $4.35 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.21
Wellington $5.75
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.22 TopBetta
Wellington $4.35 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $4.07
Over $1.33
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.50 Unibet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.50
Brisbane Roar v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 2 April, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Round 25 comes to a close with what appears to be a very one-sided match between Brisbane and Central Coast at Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane were really solid in their 1-0 win over Melbourne Victory. Maclaren scored the goal for them just after halftime, and they managed to cling onto that slender lead for the rest of the match. They’re equal on points with Melbourne City at the moment, and this week is a good chance for them to take that third position on the table outright. Central Coast put in good fight against Adelaide last start, but they just couldn’t match it. Their season is all over now; hopefully they play out these last few games strongly, as they’ve been good over the last couple of months. Brisbane should be winning this, and winning this easily. Not only do they have the superior squad, they also have a lot more to play for. Under 2.5 Goals in this one for me, Brisbane don’t mind a 1-0 win, take the lead and park the bus, with a lot on the line, they might do that here.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 5
Central Coast 0
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.49
Central Coast $7.41
Draw $5.17
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.42 Sportsbet, Unibet
Central Coast $8.00 Bet365
Draw $5.00 TopBetta, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.20
Central Coast $5.97
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.14 Sportsbet, Unibet
Central Coast $6.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.14
Over $1.88
Market Price:
Under $2.88 Bet365
Over $1.42 Unibet
Value: Brisbane/Central Coast – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.88
