Getting down to the business end of the A-League season, Round 22 kicks off in Sydney on Friday night and our A-League expert previews the matches and bets.
Best Value
Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
Most of the value this week looks to be coming in the form of Over/Under bets, and none more so then in Wellington and Perth’s match. The short price of $1.56 might scare some punters away, but when you realise I’ve rated the “Overs” at $1.42 you can see why I think the $1.56 is the biggest value of the week. Both of these sides have solid Over 2.5 form, and it’s hard to see any other result coming from this one.
Next Best Value
Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Next best of the week is “Overs” again, this time at Alliance Stadium. I usually fine it hard to tip Over 2.5 Goals in Melbourne Victory matches, but this one has it written all over it. Both teams have been in goal scoring form the last month or so, and between these top twos sides it’s hard to not see plenty of moments of brilliance leading to at least three goals being scored.
Best Value:
1st: Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
2nd: Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
3rd: Western Sydney – Head to Head – $1.85
4th: Western Sydney/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25
Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Friday 3 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Round 22 gets underway on Saturday night with an absolute cracker. It’s Sydney against Melbourne Victory and the premiership is on the line, Melbourne need to take all three points if they want to stay in the hunt. Sydney bounced back from their loss the week prior with a very impressive win over Melbourne City on the road. They won the match 3-1, and that was no fluke, they dominated all the important stats and got the win they deserved. Melbourne Victory also won their last match, albeit slightly less convincingly. They were up against Adelaide, at AAMI Park, so most thought it would be a walk in the park for them. Rojas opened the scoring with a brilliant goal around the hour mark, but it wasn’t till the last ten minutes when things really heated up. Firstly Berisha made it 2-0 for Melbourne, but then Adelaide scored a goal of their own through Elrich to set up a grandstand finish, 2-1 was where it ended though. Melbourne Victory need to win this if they’re a chance of winning the premiership, but I think at Allianz, Sydney will be just too strong. Best angle for this match looks the Over 2.5 Goals as Head to Head is pretty much spot on. $1.70 for the “Overs” is good enough for me.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $2.15
Melbourne Victory $3.73
Draw $3.75
Market Price:
Sydney $2.00 Sportsbet
Melbourne Victory $3.60 TopBetta
Draw $2.80 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.57
Melbourne Victory $2.74
Market Price:
Sydney $1.48 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.66 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.81
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $2.15 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.70 Unibet
Value: Sydney/Melbourne Victory – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.70
Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory
Saturday 4 March, 5:35pm (AEDT) – QBE Stadium
On Saturday afternoon Perth takes on Wellington at QBE Stadium in New Zealand. Wellington is coming off what was one of their better performances of the season in Round 21 as they snagged all three points from Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium. They scored early through Smelts, and then Krishna doubled their lead at the hour mark. Borrello got a goal for Brisbane but it was to no avail, and Wellington got an unlikely victory. It took Perth a while to get going, but they’re now in pretty solid form. They hosted Western Sydney, and after peppering shots towards goal for most of the night, a couple hit the back of the net, and gave Perth a comfortable 2-0 win. This is a tight match, I rate Perth pretty highly, but their road form isn’t always the best. I’ve got to give the nod to Wellington, only just though; it should be a tight one. Keen on the Over 2.5 Goals again here, even though it’s the short price of $1.56, it does look the goods.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Perth 0
Draw 4
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.58
Perth $3.04
Draw $3.52
Market Price:
Wellington $2.67 Unibet
Perth $2.60 TopBetta
Draw $3.60 Bet365, William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.85
Perth $2.18
Market Price:
Wellington $2.00 William Hill
Perth $1.84 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.36
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Unibet
Over $1.56 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United
Saturday 4 March, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Spotless Stadium
The Saturday night game is not the blockbuster that we’ve come accustomed to, but Western Sydney and Adelaide fans will be excited as they duke it out at Spotless Stadium. Western Sydney was up against it last week when they were playing Perth away. The Perth road trip is always hard, but it’s even harder when the home side is in great form, which Perth are. Western Sydney held their share of possession, but as is often the case they struggled in the final third, leading to only one shot on target for the entire game. They ended up losing the match 2-0, but they’ll be keen to bounce back this week back at home. Adelaide was very good in a losing performance against Melbourne Victory. They played solid football for the ninety minutes; the difference was two great goals (one from Berisha and one from Rojas) from Melbourne Victory that wouldn’t have been out of place in a match between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Elrich got a consolidation goal for them, but it was too little, too late. I think a 2-1 loss, is more than a reasonable result for them though. Western Sydney really should be able to get the win this week, and they need to with teams like Newcastle and Wellington right on their heels for that last finals spot. At $1.85 Western Sydney is just enough value for me to make them a selection, if the price drops at all though I’d be skipping them. It doesn’t come up very often, but I think Under 2.5 Goals is value for this fixture too at $2.25.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Adelaide 1
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.70
Adelaide $5.40
Draw $4.39
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.85 TopBetta
Adelaide $4.40 Unibet
Draw $3.95 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.32
Adelaide $4.17
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.40 Sportsbet
Adelaide $3.40 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.07
Over $1.93
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Bet365
Over $1.66 Unibet
Value: Western Sydney – Head to Head – $1.85
Western Sydney/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.25
Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City
Sunday 5 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Central Coast are somehow only two games away from a finals position, so they’ll be throwing everything they have at Melbourne City when they face off on Sunday. Central Coast put up a good fight last week against Newcastle. It was on the road, so for them that’s a pretty tough fixture. Their previous good form looked to be falling apart after an early Newcastle goal, but they showed their tenaciousness and got a goal back to tie things up. They’re somehow still in finals contention, so I expect to see more solid showings for the remainder of the season. Melbourne City was hosting the league leaders last weekend and unfortunately they were shown that they’re a rung below the top two teams. They were clearly beaten going down 3-1 to Sydney. Melbourne City’s recent form slump is concerning, they’ll want to be as high on the ladder as they can when finals come around. No doubt Melbourne City “should” be winning this game, but whether they do or not is another question. Their form has been shaky of late, but I think they’ll realize how much they need these points and pull out a win. All markets couldn’t be much more spot on with my rated prices if they tried. No value here, think skip this match and keep looking.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Melbourne City 4
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $4.60
Melbourne City $1.88
Draw $3.99
Market Price:
Central Coast $4.50 TopBetta
Melbourne City $1.85 Bet365, William Hill
Draw $3.80 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.45
Melbourne City $1.41
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.32 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $1.40 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $2.50 William Hill
Over $1.54 Unibet
Value: No value
Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
Sunday 5 March, 7:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The last game of the week looks to be another tight one when Newcastle and Brisbane go head to head at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle hosted Central Coast last week and they would of thought the three points should be locked down, and then after an early goal they would have had no doubt about it. It wasn’t to be though, Central Coast came back with an equaliser, and then it was back and forth until the final whistle with neither team being able to break the deadlock. I think it was two points that they should of won, and could come back to bite them in a couple months time. Brisbane was bitterly disappointing last week when they hosted Wellington. They went into the game as a short priced favourite and most (including me) thought they’d just win, but it was quite the opposite. With twenty minutes to go they were down 2-0, Borrello scored a goal for them to bring it back to 2-1, but that’s all they could muster. It’s really hard to split these two, I have them almost rated identically here, but if you were twisting my arm I’d go with Brisbane. This is another game where there doesn’t appear to be any value, and I’m not too upset about that cause I can this game very unpredictable.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Brisbane 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.87
Brisbane $2.61
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Newcastle $3.05 Unibet
Brisbane $2.25 William Hill
Draw $3.70 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.10
Brisbane $1.91
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.25 Unibet
Brisbane $1.67 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.26
Over $1.79
Market Price:
Under $2.17 Unibet
Over $1.73 Bet365
Value: No value
