Welcome to The Profits A-League 2017 Elimination Finals as it kicks off on Friday night between Brisbane Roar and Western Sydney Wanderers at Suncorp Stadium and The Profits A-League expert previews all the matches and shares his best bets.
Best Value
Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.05
With only a couple games it was hard to find some value, but there does appear to be some in the second game. Melbourne City has a mortgage on their spot in the next week of finals in my opinion. Perth is a terrible travelling side, so this should be easy business for Melbourne City. Head to Head will do me, can still get better than even money!
Next Best Value
Melbourne City/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
There won’t be any shortage of goals in this match either, both sides are attacking teams, and it wouldn’t surprise me if three, four or five goals were netted in what should be a cracking match for spectators.
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.05
2nd: Melbourne City/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
3rd: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.51
Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 21 April, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
So we’re finally here, the Finals. Sydney and Melbourne Victory get a well earned break for finishing in the top two spots, but this week it’s left for the teams who finished third to sixth to fight it out to keep their seasons’ alive. First up it’s Western Sydney and Brisbane up at Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane had the perfect run into finals last Sunday when they played at home to Wellington. They trailed by two goals early in the second half, but showed their fighting spirit and managed to come back and snatch the win. They ended up winning 4-3, so they’ll want to tighten up their defense a little, but their offense is doing all the right things up front. Western Sydney was on the road to Adelaide, but didn’t quite get their desired result. They would of hoped to be coming into the finals off a win, but they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. The plus side was that they were 2-0 down with only half an hour on the clock, but they clawed a couple goals back for themselves, tying things up. Being played up at Brisbane I’d be surprised if the home side didn’t take the game out, and move into the next week of the finals full of confidence. This is really annoying but as you can see from below, the bookie prices are matching right up with my rated prices, which means no value. If Brisbane were to drift a lift further, say to $2.20, then I think they would be worth a play, but not at their current quote.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Western Sydney 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.00
Western Sydney $4.08
Draw $3.92
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.12 Unibet
Western Sydney $3.50 Bet365
Draw $3.50 TopBetta, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.49
Western Sydney $3.04
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.56 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $2.50 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.14 Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value: No value
Melbourne City v Perth Glory
Sunday 23 April, 7:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The other Elimination Final is on Sunday night and it looks to be a great match. It’s between Melbourne City and Perth in a game that’s bound to have plenty of goals. These two teams actually fought it out last week, and on that occasion it was Perth who got the better of Melbourne City. It was a great spectacle with nine goals being scored. Perth opened the scoring very early through Castro, but Cahill evened things up shortly after. From there Perth put on another three goals away to lead 4-1, and things looked all over. With ten minutes on the clock Melbourne City found the back of the net twice to make things interesting, but Perth quickly answered again to give themselves breathing room at 5-3. Fitzgerald scored a late goal for Melbourne City making injury time a bit of a sweat for Perth, but they held on to win 5-4. The big difference between last week and this week is the venue. Last time the game was played over in Western Australia, now anyone who has followed Perth this season will know they’re a far superior team when at home compared to when on the road. This game being played back at AAMI Park pushes the advantage heavily in Melbourne City’s favour. Based on Perth’s road record I don’t think Melbourne City will have any trouble coming away with the win. I’m also very keen on Melbourne City at their current price too, $2.05 has been put up, but I can’t see them starting that long. And even though it’s pretty short, Over 2.5 Goals looks money for jam going off last weeks match-up.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Perth 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.71
Perth $5.52
Draw $4.28
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.05 Unibet, Sportsbet
Perth $3.75 Bet365
Draw $3.75 TopBetta
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.31
Perth $4.23
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.51 Unibet
Perth $2.75 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.76
Over $1.36
Market Price:
Under $2.70 Bet365
Over $1.56 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.05
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.51
Melbourne City/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.56
