There was a couple of upsets in Round 23, one of which had a big effect on the overall ladder positions. Adelaide were the league leaders and hosted Melbourne City, and while it looked a tough matchup for them, they hadn’t lost a game in around three months. That run quickly came to an end though. It was a tight game throughout, but Melbourne City broke the dead lock in the last 10 minutes through Fitzgerald. That win has kept Melbourne City in the hunt for the Premiership, only a game behind Brisbane and Western Sydney. The other surprise of the weekend was in the Sydney/Wellington match. Sydney started a short price favourite, but it would have had to be a brave person to back them after their average recent form. Wellington controlled the game from the outset, scoring three goals in the first half. Sydney pulled one back, but that was to little avail. Wellington ended up pulling out a strong 3-1 win. After a pretty quiet previous month, Brisbane showed they are still a contender with their domination of Melbourne Victory. Brisbane unleashed a huge 20 shots during the game, that’s one every 4 minutes, and five of them hit the back of the net. Melbourne Victory on the other hand couldn’t score once. This 5-0 win to Brisbane will give them a massive boost heading into the last few rounds of the season. Perth had an easy assignment, hosting Central Coast. They didn’t let the home fans down either with an easy 4-0 win. There wasn’t much to take out of this match other than the fact that it looks like Perth have cemented themselves a finals spot. Western Sydney had to travel to Newcastle and needed to win to keep their Premiership chances alive. While it wasn’t easy, they did manage to get all three points courtesy of a 1-0 win. They are now equal with Brisbane on points at the top of the table.
There are two huge games this week, Melbourne City/Brisbane and Western Sydney/Adelaide. This round could define the Premiership with all four teams in contention playing in these two games.
Best of luck with any bets you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne Victory/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75.
2nd: Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $2.63.
3rd: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.20.
4th: Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $6.25.
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar
Friday 18 March, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The round kicks off with a cracker of a match between Melbourne City and Brisbane. Melbourne City is coming off a huge win, it was only 1-0, but it was against the “at the time” league leaders in Adelaide. That win single handedly kept them in the Premiership hunt, if they lost that they had no hope, suddenly they are within a game of the top of the table. Brisbane were equally if not more impressive in their match against Melbourne Victory last week. They were hosting, so that made it easier, but no one expected the demolition job that was their 5-0 win over last season’s champs. They pulled the trigger 20 times, when you’re having that many shots at goal, some are bound to go in. Melbourne City is back at home this week, which is a huge boost for them, if they can beat Adelaide away, they should be able to beat Brisbane at home. I thought Melbourne City should be odd-on, I had them around the $1.90 mark, but you can get $2.20 at most bookmakers. I think this is a great price, and by Friday night it will tighten closer to my rating.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 3
Brisbane 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.89
Brisbane $4.50
Draw $4.00
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.20 Everywhere
Brisbane $3.10 Bet365
Draw $3.80 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.42
Brisbane $3.38
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.65 William Hill
Brisbane $2.23 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.36
Over $1.42
Market Price:
Under $3.00 Centrebet
Over $1.44 Unibet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.20.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.65.
Central Coast Mariners v Sydney FC
19 Saturday March, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
This will be an interesting matchup I think; it’s Central Coast and Sydney at Bluetongue Stadium. Usually I’m always just saying whoever faces Central Coast has got a free pass to three points, but Sydney’s form has been very average of late. Central Coast had to travel to the west coast last week to face Perth. Unsurprisingly Perth handled them rather easily, it was a 4-0 loss in the end, but I didn’t really expect any different to be honest. Perth has been in great form, and at home they are nearly impossible to beat. Sydney was very poor last week, they were at home to Wellington, which should be a lock for three points, or at least one, but they left the pitch with zero. It was a pretty bad loss too, going down 3-1. They were down 3-0, managed to salvage a goal, but it meant very little in the end. There’s no doubt about, Sydney “should” win this match, they are a far better team than Central Coast, but their recent form has been pretty bad, and that’s putting it nicely. I’ve got them rated $1.80, so obviously I think they are going to be extremely hard to beat. The problem is, the best price bookies have is $1.65.Which means, and I know it’s probably stupid, I think Central Coast is a little bit of overs. Now Head to Head I can’t do, but in the Draw No Bet market, at $4.35, I think they are worth a throw at the stumps.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 0
Sydney 5
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $5.13
Sydney $1.80
Draw $3.99
Market Price:
Central Coast $5.50 Unibet
Sydney $1.65 William Hill
Draw $4.50 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.84
Sydney $1.35
Market Price:
Central Coast $4.35 Unibet
Sydney $1.25 Sportsbet, William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.67
Over $1.60
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.50 William Hill
Value: Central Coast – Draw No Bet – $4.35.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United
Sturday 19 March, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium
This is the other highlight of the round, and possibly a season defining match, it’s Western Sydney and Adelaide. Western Sydney last week did what Western Sydney does, they won, but unconvincingly. They were playing Newcastle, so many, including myself, thought it would be a straight forward win for them, but it wasn’t. They got the lead early in the game, but had to hold that 1-0 lead all the way to the final whistle. They make backers nervous, but they get the job done more often than not. Adelaide dropped the ball last week, they were at home to Melbourne City and needed to win, but they didn’t. By no means was it a disgraceful performance, they only lost 1-0, and that one goal came in the last 10 minutes of the game They couldn’t afford to drop points in that fixture, they’ve gone from top of the table, down to third. If they lose this, I think its bye bye Premiership for them. This looks a tight battle, as you’d expect, but I think Western Sydney can pull out enough to get this over the line and get one hand on the Premiers Plate. Wow, the market has a huge price for Adelaide, I actually didn’t see that coming, I thought they would have been a lot closer. At the prices I definitely think Adelaide is the way to go, even though Western Sydney have the advantage, Adelaide still has a massive chance in this game and at $3.40 they’re hard to go past.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Adelaide 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.50
Adelaide $2.97
Draw $3.79
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.20 Sportsbet
Adelaide $3.40 Bet365, Palmerbet
Draw $3.60 William Hill, Palmerbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.84
Adelaide $2.19
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.58 Sportsbet
Adelaide $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.72
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.23 Unibet
Over $1.71 Sportsbet
Value: Adelaide United – Draw No Bet – $2.63.
Adelaide United – Head to Head – $3.40.
Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory
Sunday 20 March, 3:00pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
Sunday afternoon see’s an incredibly tight matchup between Wellington and Perth. Wellington is coming off that very good win away last week to Sydney. While Sydney has been pretty average lately, this still looked like a tough fixture for Wellington. They went into the match as a pretty big underdog but that didn’t stop them. By half time they’d broken away with a 3-0 lead. The game was all but over at that stage, Sydney managed to get a goal back, but that didn’t matter, it was still the best performance Wellington has had in quite some time. Perth continued their great form, this time it was an easy 4-0 over Central Coast at home. They have been one of the form teams in the second half of the season, and I can tell you no one will want to be coming up against them in the first week of finals. I honestly can’t split the two sides, both coming off strong wins; I think they both have a good chance in this. There’s not much splitting their prices with the bookmakers either, and unfortunately there is no value either way. If Wellington drifted out more I’d be tempted, but at the current prices it’s a sit out for me.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Perth 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.76
Perth $2.76
Draw $3.65
Market Price:
Wellington $2.85 Sportsbet
Perth $2.40 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.80 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.00
Perth $2.00
Market Price:
Perth $1.76 Unibet
Perth $2.12 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.70 William Hill
Over $1.53 Bet365
Value: No value.
Melbourne Victory v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 20 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 24 finishes up with what looks like a pretty one-sided match between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle. Melbourne Victory has been in a real lump lately, and that was never more evident than when they faced Brisbane last week. I don’t think anyone really expected them to beat Brisbane away from home, but it was the way they were beaten. They lost 5-0, and never really looked all that dangerous. They have a serious issue coming towards the end of the season; I can’t see them doing much in finals to be honest, if they are even there (they should just hold on for sixth place). Newcastle put up a valiant effort last week when hosting Western Sydney. They were always going to struggle, but they fought it out the entire 90 minutes, and only went down 1-0, as good a result as they could really hope for, especially since their season is already over. Melbourne Victory should, and must win this match. This is as easy as they’ve had it over the last few weeks and dropping points isn’t acceptable. I hate it, but I think Newcastle is a touch of value, especially in the Draw No Bet market. Back them at your own risk, they’re hard to trust, but at $6.25, and how poorly Melbourne Victory have been playing, I think they’re worth a shot. The best looking play of the game is Under 2.5 Goals though in my opinion, doubt there will be many in this game.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 2
Newcastle 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.58
Newcastle $6.78
Draw $4.57
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.40 Sportsbet
Newcastle $8.00 William Hill
Draw $5.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.23
Newcastle $5.29
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.13 Bet365, Sportsbet
Newcastle $6.25 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.87
Over $2.15
Market Price:
Under $2.75 William Hill
Over $1.47 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.75.
Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $6.25.
Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $8.00.
