Last week was a pretty stock standard round, there weren’t any real surprises, Wellington beat Melbourne City, but they were only slight underdogs, and everything went pretty much to plan. Western Sydney and Adelaide both leapfrogged Brisbane on the table after they both won their respective matches, while Brisbane lost. The weekend started off on Friday night with Wellington hosting Melbourne City and Western Sydney hosting Perth. Both the home sides won their matches 2-1. Neither of these results really shocked me, Western Sydney was obviously a short priced favourite and Wellington have been playing well at home. Adelaide played Brisbane and showed everybody that they could be the real deal by beating them comprehensively. By the time the final whistle came about the score was 3-0, and Adelaide moved one step closer to a possible Premiership. The Big Blue was tight as always and it ended in a 1-1 draw. Both teams are touch and go whether they hold a finals position or not, so they’ll both be disappointed that they dropped two points from the fixture. The last game of the round was Central Coast and Newcastle, as you can imagine it didn’t draw a lot of fan fare. Newcastle continued their decent form of late and got another win on the board. They’re now within two games of a finals birth, so they still have something to fight for.

All eyes will be on the Friday night fixture this week with Brisbane hosting Western Sydney. If Western Sydney get the win, the minor Premiership will be beyond Brisbane I think.

We’ve only got selections in three of the five games this week, so hopefully they all do the right thing by us and get the chocolates.

Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 164 selections; I have had 62 winners, 86 losses and 16 pushes. This equates to (at even staking) -8.01 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -4.88%.

Best of luck over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits

Best Value: 
1st:    Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.50.
2nd:    Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.44.
3rd:    Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $4.20.
4th:    Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.83.

Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday 4 March, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium

It’s the highlight of the round and it kicks the A-League this week, it’s Brisbane and Western Sydney at Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane’s Premiership hopes took a big hit last week when they travelled to Adelaide. It was a game that they needed to at least get a draw out of, as Adelaide have been flying up the ladder, but they couldn’t manage it. They ended up losing 3-0, which hurt their goal difference too. They’re starting to look like they may have peaked too early in the season as they have dropped off lately. Western Sydney had another workman like win in their 2-1 over Perth. Once again it was Santalab who saved the day for them, scoring in the last 10 minutes to secure them all three points. Their win, along with Brisbane’s loss means they jumped back up to the top of the ladder again. Brisbane needs to win this to stay in contention, and they really should be winning it. If they can’t beat Western Sydney at home, they will have no chance of beating them on the road in the finals. I’m pretty happy to take Brisbane at their current price, I’m pretty sure they should be odds-on. The $1.83 for them with the money back for the draw is incredibly good value too.

Last 5 games:  
Brisbane                  2
Western Sydney      3
Draw                        0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Brisbane                  $1.71
Western Sydney     $5.41
Draw                       $4.36

Market Price:    
Brisbane                  $2.50 Everywhere
Western Sydney     $2.70 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw                        $3.50 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Brisbane                 $1.32
Western Sydney     $4.17

Market Price:    
Brisbane                  $1.83 Bet365
Western Sydney      $1.95 Sportsbet, William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under            $2.68
Over            $1.59

Market Price:    
Under            $2.28 Unibet
Over            $1.71 Sportsbet

Value:         Brisbane Roar – Head to Head – $2.50.
Brisbane Roar – Draw No Bet – $1.83.

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Saturday 5 March, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium

Saturday afternoon we see Wellington hosting Adelaide in what I think will be an incredibly tight match. Wellington hosted Melbourne City last week and while they weren’t favourite, I thought they had a great chance of causing a minor upset. And upset Melbourne City they did. They put on two goals in the first 15 minutes and looked like they were going to run away with the match, but shortly after Melbourne City got a goal back. That was the end of the scoring for the match though, and things finished 2-1 in Wellington’s favour. Their season is over, but they are well and truly clear of the wooden spoon, which is something. Adelaide were super impressive in their match against Brisbane. Their form of late has been impeccable and this was no different. They won the match easily, 3-0, and have now jumped Brisbane on the ladder. They are looking a real threat to Western Sydney on the run into finals. I actually couldn’t split the two teams here, I rated them $2.75 each of two. My head says Adelaide is the team to beat, but I couldn’t believe how short they came up. On the flip side, I think $3.50 is a really good price for Wellington, and with the market the way it is, I have to lean their way.

Last 5 games:    
Wellington            3
Adelaide               2
Draw                    0

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Wellington            $2.75
Adelaide               $2.75
Draw                    $3.65

Market Price:  
Wellington           $3.50 Bet365
Adelaide              $2.12 William Hill
Draw                   $3.60 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Wellington           $1.99
Adelaide             $2.01

Market Price:    
Wellington          $2.44 Sportsbet
Adelaide             $1.57 William Hill

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                 $2.49
Over                   $1.67

Market Price:
Under                 $2.25 Unibet
Over                   $1.70 William Hill

Value:         Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $3.50.
Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.44.

Melbourne City v Sydney FC

Saturday 5 March, 7:30pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park

Saturday night at AAMI Park we have Melbourne City and Sydney. Melbourne City was a little disappointing last week over in New Zealand. They were playing Wellington and started the match favourite, but I always thought they were a bit of a false favourite. Their form hasn’t been the best, and playing Wellington away isn’t an easy task for any team. They went down 2-1, so it wasn’t a smashing, but now the top of table looks out of reach for them, so they’ll have to strive for a home final. Sydney played Melbourne Victory down south, so it was always going to be tough for them, but they managed a 1-1 draw. Unfortunately for them a draw isn’t enough, they’re now winless in their last six matches, and in real danger of dropping out of a finals position. I think Melbourne City will bounce back this weekend and get another win on the board. This match looks perfect for them, and the back-to-back road games for Sydney doesn’t hurt their chances either. I want to be on Melbourne City, but their price isn’t good enough, it’s close, just need their price to move out $0.10 or $0.20 and then I think they’d be worth a bet. At the current prices I have to sit this one out.

Last 5 games:    
Melbourne City    1
Sydney                1
Draw                    3

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.86
Sydney                $4.41
Draw                   $4.24

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $2.00 Palmerbet, Unibet
Sydney                $3.85 Sportsbet
Draw                    $3.80 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.42
Sydney                $3.37

Market Price:    
Melbourne City    $1.50 William hill
Sydney                 $2.95 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:  
Under                $3.06
Over                  $1.48

Market Price:  
Under               $2.60 Bet365
Over                  $1.50 Sportsbet, William Hill

Value:         No value.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory

Sunday 6 March, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium

Central Coast host Melbourne Victory on the Sunday afternoon timeslot. I feel like a broken record but Central Coast lost again last week, this time it was against Newcastle. Central Coast was at home too, so it was pretty much as easy a fixture as they could have, and they still lost. They’re struggling to hold any kind of consistent form but they do pull matches out of nowhere every now and then. Melbourne Victory disappointed their fans last week in the Big Blue against Sydney. They were at home and could only come away with a 1-1 draw, which isn’t good enough as they are only just holding onto their finals position by the tightest of margins. Melbourne Victory should win this game, I’ve rated them a lot shorter than Central Coast, but they have struggled away from home lately. Can’t believe I’m typing this but I think Central Coast is a bit of value, Melbourne Victory have been struggling lately and maybe Central Coast can have things go their way for once. The Draw No Bet option is definitely they way to go though, it is hard to trust Central Coast.

Last 5 games:    
Central Coast           0
Melbourne Victory    4
Draw                        1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Central Coast           $3.69
Melbourne Victory    $2.14
Draw                         $3.83

Market Price:    
Central Coast           $5.40 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $1.70 Sportsbet
Draw                        $4.33 Palmerbet

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:    
Central Coast           $2.72
Melbourne Victory    $1.58

Market Price:
Central Coast           $4.20 Unibet
Melbourne Victory    $1.30 Sportsbet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                    $2.55
Over                      $1.64

Market Price: 
Under                    $2.69 Sportsbet
Over                      $1.55 William Hill

Value:         Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $4.20.
Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $5.40.

Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets

Monday 7 March, 8:00pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium

Round 22 finishes up with an extremely one-sided match between Perth and Newcastle. Even thought they lost, Perth played a pretty good game last week. They were away to Western Sydney, so obviously an extremely tough match up, but with only 10 minutes left they had kept the score to 1-1. Unfortunately they allowed in a late goal to leave them empty handed. Newcastle had the easy fixture last week, the match-up with Central Coast. They weren’t super convincing, but they got the job done 1-0. They’re actually within striking distance of a finals position, so they’ll be giving it everything every until the end of the season. Perth will just be winning this; I can’t see any other result. I think they can play finals, and be competitive in them, so games like this are a must win if that’s the case. Once again, bookies aren’t letting us on and have got the prices basically the same as I have. I really want to be on Perth, cause I think they’re basically a lock, but I would need a better price than $1.61 currently on offer.

Last 5 games:    
Perth                   4
Newcastle           0
Draw                   1

Head to Head
Rated Price:    
Perth                   $1.54
Newcastle           $6.97
Draw                   $4.81

Market Price:    
Perth                   $1.61 Sportsbet
Newcastle           $6.00 Bet365
Draw                   $4.10 William Hill

Draw No Bet
Rated Price:  
Perth                  $1.22
Newcastle          $5.52

Market Price:  
Perth                   $1.25 Sportsbet
Newcastle           $4.00 Bet365, Unibet

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:    
Under                $2.67
Over                  $1.60

Market Price:    
Under                 $2.57 Sportsbet
Over                   $1.53 Bet365

Value:         No value.