It was a great weekend last week with Wellington getting the win for us over Western Sydney at about $8.00. It was nearly a huge weekend with Newcastle leading their match for a long time, but unfortunately it ended in a draw. That was the first game of the round, and most expected Brisbane to get the win against Newcastle but it wasn’t as easy as they would of expected. Brisbane scored early from a penalty, but shortly after Newcastle netted a couple. From then Newcastle held their lead for a long time until an own goal leveled things up at 2-2, and that’s where the game ended. Another surprise was when Perth won after travelling east to take on Sydney. Perth is one of the real form teams at the moment and they’re proving very hard to beat at home or away. They led this match from about the 20-minute mark, and never gave away their advantage. Saturday night was the big Melbourne Derby and it lived up to the hype. Melbourne City led on two occasions, but each time Melbourne Victory fought back to even it up. At the final whistle it was 2-2 and both teams had to settle for one point. Probably the biggest shock of the week was when Wellington played Western Sydney away, and not only did they win, they destroyed them. They ended up winning the match 5-2 with Powell netting four goals in an incredible performance. It’s hard to know what to make of this win, their form hasn’t been the greatest, but we got to take that effort on face value, and it was huge. After looking at this weekend, unfortunately a few matches look to have little to no value in them, but I think we can find some winners. The Sydney Derby should be a cracker, and I think the books have the prices a little wrong, which means there’s some good value to be had.
Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 151 selections; I have had 55 winners, 82 losses and 14 pushes. This equates to (at even staking) -11.77 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -7.79%.
Good luck with any bets you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.90.
2nd: Sydney FC/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
3rd: Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.14.
4th: Perth Glory/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Friday 19 February, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Friday night should be an exciting match as Melbourne Victory host Adelaide at AAMI Park. Melbourne Victory is coming off a tough fought draw in the Melbourne Derby last week. On two occasions Melbourne City managed to poke their head in front, but both time Melbourne Victory came back and tied it up. There was even a bit of controversy that Melbourne Victory maybe had another goal, but nothing came of it, and the game finished 2-2. Adelaide were away last week, but it was at Central Coast, so they went into the match a short priced favourite and they didn’t let backers down. After trailing early, they then put on three goals to wrap the match up, as expected. They’re continuing their strong form and could be one of the teams to beat come finals time. Melbourne Victory should really be able to get the better of Adelaide here; their home form is so strong and after dropping points the last three games, they need all three points. Bookies are spot on with the market here, there doesn’t look to really any value. Hopefully they push out the price of Over 2.5 Goals, I think there might be a few scored here.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Adelaide 0
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.09
Adelaide $3.75
Draw $3.93
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.95 Sportsbet, William Hill
Adelaide $3.80 Unibet
Draw $3.80 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.56
Adelaide $2.79
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.44 William Hill
Adelaide $2.85 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.28 Unibet
Over $1.65 Bet365
Value: No value.
Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday 20 February, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
It’s a battle of the bottom dwellers on Saturday afternoon when Newcastle host Wellington. Newcastle were very good last week, they were playing away to Brisbane and started a huge price underdog. After going a goal behind within 6 minutes it looks like it was going to be a long day for Newcastle but within 15 minutes they not only managed to pull a goal back, they scored a second to take the lead. They held that lead for most of the match until an own goal brought about their undoing. They were left with a draw, which realistically is a great result out of that fixture for them. Wellington had a tough match-up too; they were up against the league leaders Western Sydney. Their performance was out of this world, winning the match 5-2. I don’t know if I’ve seen such an offensive performance from Wellington before, and it was mostly all courtesy of Powell who bagged four. This looks a very tight match, could easily go either way. I think Newcastle has a slight advantage though if I had to pick someone. Once again bookies aren’t letting us on at all here, prices are the same or worse than my rated prices. I’m sitting this one out, but we’ve definitely got some selections coming up in other games.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.58
Wellington $2.96
Draw $3.64
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.40 Sportsbet
Wellington $2.95 Unibet
Draw $3.50 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.87
Wellington $2.15
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.71 Sportsbet
Wellington $2.16 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.34
Over $1.75
Market Price:
Under $2.23 Unibet
Over $1.68 Sportsbet
Value: No value.
Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers
Saturday 20 February, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Saturday night is the big Sydney Derby; it’s Sydney’s turn to host in what should be a great match. Sydney were pretty average last week, they were at home to Perth so most thought it would be a straight forward match for them. Perth has been in good form though, and Sydney found it difficult to match them across the pitch. By the time Sydney got on the scoreboard, Perth were already two goals up and the game was all but over. Sydney had to settle for a 2-1 loss, and now they are now guarantee to play finals. If Sydney were disappointing, then their across town rivals were terrible. Western Sydney hosted Wellington last week and got a good old beating. Wellington were in some kind of form and put 5 goals on Western Sydney in their 5-2 loss. Not sure what was going on with Western Sydney’s defense, usually it’s so solid, but it wasn’t last week. They’ve now lost their spot at the top of the table and will be desperate to regain it. I think Sydney look very good for this match; everything looks to be lining up for them. The price for Sydney looks great to me too; I really think they should be favourite. Also the Over 2.5 Goals looks very enticing as well in what should be a decent scoring match.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Western Sydney 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.86
Western Sydney $4.48
Draw $4.16
Market Price:
Sydney $2.90 Sportsbet, William Hill
Western Sydney $2.50 Bet365
Draw $3.45 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.42
Western Sydney $3.40
Market Price:
Sydney $2.08 Sportsbet
Western Sydney $1.80 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $1.96 Sportsbet
Over $1.95 Bet365
Value: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.90.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $2.08.
Sydney FC/Western Sydney Wanderers – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 20 February, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
In what I think will be one of the most interesting games of the weekend, Perth host the league leaders Brisbane. Perth is coming off a great win last week against Sydney when away. They’ve been in really good form and that match was no different, they dominated from the get go. After scoring the first two goals they took the foot of the pedal a little and allowed Sydney to get one goal back, but that didn’t have any effect on the final result. Brisbane was a little average against Newcastle last round. They were at home, so as you would expect they started a very short priced favourite. They didn’t play up to their price though by only managed a 2-2 draw. The draw was enough to move them to the top of the table, but I’m sure they’d be very disappointed. I really like Perth in this game, at home, and honestly one of the form teams in the league at the moment. They still don’t hold a finals position, which I find shocking, I think they’ll be able to climb the ladder a little more before the season’s up. Bet365 have gone up $3.10 for Perth, which looks well over the odds, and I think it will be snapped up quick. Once again, the Over 2.5 Goals option appeals as well, another game that is sure to see goals.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Brisbane 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.12
Brisbane $3.75
Draw $3.82
Market Price:
Perth $3.10 Bet365
Brisbane $2.40 William Hill
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.57
Brisbane $2.77
Market Price:
Perth $2.14 Unibet
Brisbane $1.70 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.15
Over $1.46
Market Price:
Under $2.12 Unibet
Over $1.73 Bet365
Value: Perth Glory – Head to Head – $3.10.
Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.14.
Perth Glory/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.73.
Melbourne City v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 20 February, 5:00pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
Round 20 finished up with one of the most one-sided affairs that you’d see, it’s Melbourne City hosting Central Coast. Melbourne City had the big Melbourne Derby last week, and came out of it with a respectable result. They went into the match as underdogs, but always looked to have a big chance. The game finished 2-2, but Melbourne City did lead on two separate occasions, so they might be a little disappointed only getting one point. Central Coast hosted Adelaide last week and after leading early in the game ended up losing 3-2. It was probably as good a result as they could of expected, they’ve just about packed up for the season and are waiting for the winter break. No surprises here, Melbourne City should win this match and win it easy. I rated them $1.43, and that’s about all you can get with the bookies. If they somehow drift out to about $1.60 I’d be interested, but at the current price it’s another pass game for me.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Central Coast 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.43
Central Coast $9.40
Draw $5.14
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.42 William Hill
Central Coast $7.50 Bet365
Draw $5.00 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.15
Central Coast $7.57
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.16 William Hill
Central Coast $6.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.94
Over $1.34
Market Price:
Under $3.60 Bet365
Over $1.32 Unibet
Value: No value.
