So we’re at the end of the long Australia Day round that stretched over a long five days. We started the weekend on Friday in Brisbane when the at-the-time league leaders hosted Adelaide. Most expected Brisbane to add to their points tally with a win here, but it didn’t turn out that way. It ended up being a one-sided affair going the other way with Adelaide landing a 4-1 victory.On Saturday Western Sydney travelled to Central Coast for one of the easiest road trips on the calendar. And while they didn’t make it easy for themselves, they managed to get all three points with Santalab scoring the winning goal in the dying minutes. Newcastle was embarrassed at home when they hosted Perth. After Newcastle scored the first goal of the game, it was like the team packed up shop. What followed were six unanswered goals from Perth including doubles to Castro and Harold. Melbourne City continued on their way with a relatively easy home win against Wellington. They never really got out of first gear and won the game 3-1. The round finished on Australia Day with the annual Big Blue match between Melbourne Victory and Sydney. The hot matchup lived up to the hype with the game sitting at 0-0 until the 79th minute. Courtesy of an own goal, Melbourne Victory came out on top with a 1-0 score line. It’s good to get back to a round running from Friday – Sunday, allows more time before the next week. We start the weekend on a high with the top two teams facing off on Friday night; it will be a match not to be missed as Melbourne City head to Western Sydney. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 126 selections; I have had 45 winners, 70 losses and 11 pushes. This equates to (at staking to win 1 unit) -17.84 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -12.59%.
Good luck with any punting you have over the weekend.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $1.90.
2nd: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $3.00.
3rd: Sydney FC/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.86.
4th: Adelaide United/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.50.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City
Friday 29 January, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium
Round 17 gets off to a cracking start when Melbourne City head north to take on Western Sydney in a battle for the top of the table. Western Sydney got back to their winning ways with a comfortable enough victory over Central Coast. Even though the game was up at Bluetongue Stadium, Western Sydney went into the game as a short priced favourite. After scoring early they took the foot off the accelerator (as they often do) and Central Coast managed to level the scores up. But as they tend to do more often than not, they found a way to win, this time courtesy of a late goal from Santalab. Thanks to Brisbane losing, that win lifted them right to the top of the table, but there are a few teams right on their heels. One of those teams is their opponent this week, Melbourne City who is also coming off a winning performance. Melbourne City hosted Wellington in what was no more than a walk in the park for them. They were 2-0 up at half time, and then scored again shortly into the second period. Wellington pulled a goal back, but it was to little avail as the game was already over. There are a few tight matchups this round, and this is definitely one of them. Western Sydney have a clear advantage, don’t get me wrong, but Melbourne City could pull a rabbit out of their hat and snag something from this fixture. If they were to land all three points, it would move them to the top of the table, and a step closer to that Premiership they so desperately want. I’m keen on Melbourne City with the money back for a draw at $3.00, I think that’s more than a fair price and probably one of the better bets of the weekend.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 2
Melbourne City 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.24
Melbourne City $3.44
Draw $3.81
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.92 William Hill
Melbourne City $4.00 Unibet
Draw $4.20 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.65
Melbourne City $2.54
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.40 Everywhere
Melbourne City $3.00 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.79
Over $1.56
Market Price:
Under $2.60 Unibet
Over $1.51 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $3.00.
Melbourne City – Head to Head – $4.00
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 30 January, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Christchurch Stadium
The Saturday triple-header gets underway with a slightly lackluster match as Wellington takes on Central Coast over in Christchurch. Wellington had to take on a hot Melbourne City team last week at AAMI Park, so it was always going to be a very tough road match. Unsurprisingly they couldn’t match it with City and got beaten fairly comfortably. Losing 3-1, the scoreboard is a pretty accurate depiction of how the game played out. Wellington are now nearly three games outside of a finals position, so their chances of playing in the post-season and quickly dwindling. Central Coast had a tough task too, they had to play Western Sydney, but at least they were at home. Unfortunately that didn’t really help their efforts as they went down 2-1. They were actually right in the match until the last few minutes, until Western Sydney broke the deadlock with a goal. Both of these teams are in tough times at the moment, but if Wellington can’t win this, they might not win another match this season. Central Coast haven’t won a game on the road for over twelve months, and nothing has suggested that’s going to change any time soon. I’m pretty surprised that you can get as much as $1.90 for Wellington, I thought they’d be a lot shorter. It looks a pretty easy decision to me.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Central Coast 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.63
Central Coast $6.16
Draw $4.43
Market Price:
Wellington $1.90 William Hill
Central Coast $4.25 Sportsbet
Draw $3.75 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.27
Central Coast $4.77
Market Price:
Wellington $1.40 Centrebet
Central Coast $3.15 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.22
Over $1.45
Market Price:
Under $2.33 Unibet
Over $1.64 Sportsbet, Palmerbet
Value: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $1.90.
Wellington Phoenix/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64.
Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $1.40.
Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 30 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
We have another ladder defining match on Saturday night as Sydney and Brisbane face-off at Allianz Stadium. Sydney played Melbourne Victory down south last week, and while they preformed admirably, they ended up coming away with zero from the match. It was still 0-0 with about 15 minutes to go, but an own-goal from Jurman ruined the night for Sydney. I don’t know what happened to Brisbane last week, they have been in good form, and especially at home, but they hosted Adelaide and nothing went right for them. Adelaide have been getting better and better, but Brisbane really couldn’t afford to drop points in a home fixture, and the end score of 4-1 was almost embarrassing. They’ve now slipped to third on the ladder with a couple of other teams within a game of them. This is definitely Sydney’s game to lose, they’ve been in better form over the last month and they should be able to leapfrog Brisbane on the table by the time this game is over. I’m pretty confident that Sydney should be odds-on, I rated them $1.86, and so the $2.20 that Sportsbet have gone up with seems way over the odds.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 2
Brisbane 0
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.86
Brisbane $4.41
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Sydney $2.20 Sportsbet
Brisbane $3.45 Unibet
Draw $3.45 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.42
Brisbane $3.37
Market Price:
Sydney $1.58 Sportsbet
Brisbane $2.50 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.84
Over $1.54
Market Price:
Under $1.95 Unibet
Over $1.86 Unibet
Value: Sydney FC/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.86.
Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.20.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $1.58.
Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 29 January, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Melbourne Victory makes the big trip over to the west coast of Australia to take on Perth in the late night match on Saturday. Perth couldn’t of been more impressive last week when they easily dismantled Newcastle. They let a goal in early, but after that Perth maintained control of the game till the final whistle. During this time they poured on a whopping six goals, to leave the Newcastle crowd speechless. I haven’t seen an offensive performance from Perth like that in a long time. They were advantaged by Newcastle going down to ten men around half time, but still a great effort. Melbourne Victory hosted the annual Big Blue match against Sydney on Australia Day and they didn’t let their fans down. It wasn’t a goal-frenzy like some of the games Melbourne Victory fans might be used to, but they got all three points after winning 1-0, and that’s all that really matters. While Perth is on the bottom half of the ladder, they haven’t been playing that badly, and at home they have been very competitive. In what appears to be a very close match, I’m giving the slight edge to the home team, which differs from the market that has Melbourne Victory a clear-cut favourite. I obviously think Perth is value in this fixture, I would suggest the slightly more comfortable option of them in the Draw No Bet market as the best play though.
Last 5 games:
Perth 1
Melbourne Victory 1
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $2.43
Melbourne Victory $3.12
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Perth $3.40 William Hill
Melbourne Victory $2.10 Everywhere
Draw $5.55 Sportsbet, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $1.73
Melbourne Victory $2.28
Market Price:
Perth $2.50 William Hill, Unibet
Melbourne Victory $1.52 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.74
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.15 Unibet
Over $1.70 Unibet
Value: Perth Glory – Draw No Bet – $2.50.
Perth Glory – Head to Head – $3.40.
Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets
Sunday 31 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
We finish Round 17 with a very one-sided looking match as the in-form Adelaide hosts the not-so-in-form Newcastle. Adelaide was oh so impressive last week on their trip to sunny Queensland to face Brisbane. They didn’t care that Brisbane was sitting on top of the table; they went to Suncorp Stadium and gave it everything. They blew Brisbane out of the water, beating them 4-1. After a very slow start to the season, they have really picked up the last couple of months, and will almost certainly be playing finals football later this season. Things went from bad to worse last week with Newcastle, they were hosting Perth, which for them should be a pretty attractive fixture, but boy were they woeful. After scoring early they might of thought their luck was changing, but the rest of the game was something to forget. By the end of the match Perth had piled on six goals, and Newcastle got another reminder that they can’t wait for this season to end. No doubt about it, Adelaide should be comfortably taking all three points out of this match, they’ve been playing well, and this looks easier than previous weeks martches. I’m going to hate myself for saying this, but I think Newcastle is a little bit of value at the long price. Now I definitely don’t think they will win, but I think they have a better chance than the $8.50 Bet365 have gone up with suggests. If you do dare to back them, $6.50 for money back if it’s a draw is a much safer option.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 2
Newcastle 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.69
Newcastle $5.34
Draw $4.54
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.40 Sportsbet, William Hill
Newcastle $8.50 Bet365
Draw $5.00 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.32
Newcastle $4.16
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.13 Sportsbet
Newcastle $6.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.27
Over $1.79
Market Price:
Under $2.50 Unibet
Over $1.53 Unibet
Value: Newcastle Jets – Draw No Bet – $6.50.
Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $8.50.
Adelaide United/Newcastle Jets – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.50.
