It was another round that went pretty much to plan last week, no real surprises in there. Brisbane edged their way to top of the top table outright after Western Sydney failed to land any points in their match. Friday night started the weekend with an exciting match as Central Coast hosted Melbourne Victory. Central Coast dominated the first half and went into the break 3-0, most would of thought the game was done and dusted at that point. But Melbourne Victory kept coming in the second half and ended up leveling the game up in the dying minutes. The teams were then forced to share the points. There was a triple-header on Saturday starting with Sydney and Newcastle. Unsurprisingly Sydney came away with a relatively easy 2-0 win, they would have been disappointed with anything less. Melbourne City had a tougher match, hosting Western Sydney, but I always thought they would be able to get back to their winning ways, and that’s just what they did. Western Sydney managed to tie up the game on two occasions but Melbourne City’s third goal was enough to land them the three points. The closest thing to a surprise over the weekend came when Adelaide travelled west to take on Perth. It looked a tight game on paper, but I thought Perth would be able to pull out a win. It actually went the other way though, after going behind early, Adelaide came back to win the match 3-1. The weekend finished up with a bit of a “bore draw” as Wellington and Brisbane finished 0-0 in their fixture. It was another game that looked like it was going to be a tight one, but I thought there would at least be some goals in it. Onto Round 15 and there is a couple of big matches including Melbourne Victory and Brisbane and also the Sydney Derby. All four of these teams are in the top five on the ladder, so it should be a couple of cracking games. Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 111 selections; I have had 37 winners, 63 losses and 11 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -23.55 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -21.22%.
Have a great weekend.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Western Sydney Wanderers/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
2nd: Perth Glory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.61.
3rd: Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $1.92.
4th: Melbourne Victory/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75.
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
Friday 15 January, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
What a start to the weekend, Friday night we have a blockbuster match between Melbourne Victory and the league leaders Brisbane. Melbourne Victory played one really bad half last week and one really good half last week against Central Coast. The first half was one to forget, they went down 3-0 and at the half time break they looked gone. When they came out after the break it looked like a different team, they won the second half 3-0, leaving the game at 3-3 and earning them one point out of the fixture. Not an ideal result, but from the position they were in, they wouldn’t be complaining. Brisbane travelled to Wellington last week in what is always a tough road trip. I’d imagine they would have been going into the match thinking that a draw would have been a reasonable result, and that’s what they came away with. The game was a little boring for onlookers as it finished 0-0, but that point moved them to outright at the top of the table, so I’m sure fans won’t mind the goalless game. Every home game is do-or-die from now on for Melbourne Victory, and even though this is against (possibly) the best team in the league, they can’t afford to drop any points, and on their home form they shouldn’t. I think the $2.10 for Melbourne Victory is a great way to kick your weekend off with a winner, it’s a good price, and they should be odds-on. Usual business, over 2.5 goals looks probable again for a Victory home game, so could be a good play too.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Brisbane 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.89
Brisbane $4.50
Draw $4.00
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $2.10 William Hill
Brisbane $3.60 Bet365
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.42
Brisbane $3.38
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.54 Unibet
Brisbane $2.60 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.72
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.06 Palmerbet
Over $1.75 Bet365
Value: Melbourne Victory – Head to Head – $2.10.
Melbourne Victory/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.75.
Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 16 January, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
There’s another Saturday triple-header this round, Adelaide and Central Coast will kick it off for us. Adelaide were very impressive last week, best performance of the weekend for mine. They travelled to Perth, which is never an easy road trip, and to make things tougher, they were 1-0 down after only a few minutes. From that point onwards they took control of the match and the goals started to flow. They ended up putting on 3 goals to finish the game 3-1. That win showed that Adelaide is a team to be reckoned with and I think they can be prominent going forward towards finals. I don’t know what to make of Central Coast’s match last week, before the match I’m sure a draw would have been a good result for them against a team like Melbourne Victory. But the fact that they scored multiple goals early in the game and went into the half time break 3-0 up, they’d have to be bitterly disappointed with only getting a draw out of the match. To make things worse, Melbourne Victory’s equaliser came in the last minute of the game. This looks as one-sided as a match generally gets, Adelaide have zero excuses for anything but three points. They should be able to win by a minimum of two goals too. Market prices aren’t the greatest going into this match, there doesn’t look to be any value Head to Head. I like the Over 2.5 Goals in this, I think Adelaide have a good chance of knocking that off on their own with Central Coast’s average defense.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Central Coast 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.46
Central Coast $8.88
Draw $5.00
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.42 Sportsbet
Central Coast $8.00 Bet365
Draw $4.80 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.16
Central Coast $7.10
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.13 Everywhere
Central Coast $6.00 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.51
Over $1.40
Market Price:
Under $2.45 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over $1.53 Bet365
Value: Adelaide United/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.53.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC
Saturday 16 January, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium
The other headliner of the round is surely the Sydney Derby, especially with both teams playing so well. Last week Western Sydney had their first loss in over two months, but it was a tough fixture, Melbourne City on the road. They were no pushovers either, going down 3-2. They were the underdogs, so this takes nothing away from their recent form; they’re still one of, if not the best team in the league at the moment. Sydney had a simple kill last week; it was their fixture at home to Newcastle. They would have chalked this down as a three-point match at the start of the season and they justified that with a comfortable 2-0 win. Western Sydney should be able to continue their strong Sydney Derby form in this match (they’ve won 4 of the last 5 Derbies). The $2.10 for Western Sydney is nearly enough for me to make it a selection, but it’s just short, an extra $0.10 – $0.20 would do it. There looks to value in the current price for Over 2.5 Goals though, at the even money, it’s the best value at this stage in the fixture.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 4
Sydney 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.96
Sydney $4.11
Draw $4.07
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.10 Everywhere
Sydney $3.80 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.48
Sydney $3.10
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.52 Unibet
Sydney $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.75
Over $1.57
Market Price:
Under $1.88 Unibet
Over $2.00 Bet365
Value: Western Sydney Wanderers/Sydney FC – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.00.
Perth Glory v Melbourne City
Saturday 16 January, 9:40pm (AEDT) – NIB Stadium
Melbourne City makes the tough trip over to Western Australia this week to take on Perth who is currently struggling to find form. Perth hosted Adelaide last week and, in my opinion, was quite disappointing when losing 3-1. To make things worse, the one goal came in the form of an own goal. Their recent run of poor form has really cost them and they’ve now slipped all the way down to second bottom on the ladder. Melbourne City showed they’ve got what it takes to mix it with the best when they beat Western Sydney last week. They were at home, so I expected that they would win, but the fact that they actually got it done should give the team some more confidence going forward. These road matches can be tough, but Melbourne City should have no problems stringing together another win. Unfortunately once again the market is pretty spot on with my pricing, and there’s no real value to be had. Melbourne City is close, but need a slightly better price about them. I keep saying it, but the Over 2.5 looks another feasible play again, even at the $1.61 I think it’s good value, it’s a match that look sure to go 3+ goals.
Last 5 games:
Perth 2
Melbourne City 1
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Perth $3.73
Melbourne City $2.09
Draw $3.94
Market Price:
Perth $3.25 Sportsbet
Melbourne City $2.25 Bet365
Draw $3.60 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Perth $2.78
Melbourne City $1.56
Market Price:
Perth $2.28 Unibet
Melbourne City $1.62 Bet365, William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.54
Over $1.39
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Bet365
Over $1.61 Unibet
Value: Perth Glory/Melbourne City – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.61.
Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday 17 January, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The round finishes up with a bit of a yawner, seems to be the way on Sundays, but anyway, it’s Newcastle and Wellington. Newcastle had to travel to Sydney last week to face the Sky Blue’s, and as expected, they came away with their tails between their legs. They were long priced underdogs, and the 2-0 loss justified their price. There isn’t a lot more to take out of their match. Wellington hosted Brisbane last week, and I thought they had a good chance of knocking off the league leaders, and while they did play well, they could only manage a draw. As Wellington are trying to break into the top 6, it was probably a valuable point form them. This is a tough match; both teams haven’t been playing the best football, so it would be a bit of a surprise to see either team win. All things being fair though, I think Wellington should be able to get the better of Newcastle. We finally get some more Head to Head value, and it comes in the form of Wellington, I rated them $2.14, but $2.70 is available at William Hill, and seems over the odds to me.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 2
Wellington 2
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $3.69
Wellington $2.14
Draw $3.83
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.60 Bet365
Wellington $2.70 William Hill
Draw $3.45 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.72
Wellington $1.58
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.85 Sportsbet
Wellington $1.92 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.91
Over $2.10
Market Price:
Under $1.91 Sportsbet
Over $1.95 Bet365
Value: Wellington Phoenix – Head to Head – $2.70.
Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $1.92.
