Last week was a little tough, we seen three results that were pretty predictable, but there was one game that was a fair shock and another that the bookmakers got right, but I was way off the mark.
The week started off on Wednesday night with the biggest shock of the round in my opinion, Sydney hosted Wellington and I fully expected them to win the match fairly comfortably, but it didn’t turn out that way. It was another 0-0 draw for Sydney, which makes three in the last four weeks, I don’t know what’s going on up front, but it’s not working for them.
Both Melbourne sides started pretty short in their respective matches, City against Perth and Victory against Adelaide. They did the right thing by the punters and both got the job done. Melbourne City dominated their match winning 5-1, while Melbourne Victory was less convincing, but still won their match 2-1.
Newcastle and Brisbane always looked like it was going to be a close match with their rated prices nearly identical and the game panned out just that way with the teams sharing the points.
Western Sydney continued their good form with another win, this time it was on the road to Central Coast. I was surprised by this result, but I shouldn’t have been, bookies were all over it, having Western Sydney as a dominant favourite.
We’re already up to Round 9, this season seems to be flying by! The games start early again this week with Central Coast and Melbourne City facing off on Thursday night. I have Sydney as the shortest price favourite of the round in their match with Newcastle, but they’ll have to hit the back of the net, which they have been struggling to do lately.
Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going. Of the 64 selections; I have had 20 winners, 37 losses and 7 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -18.72 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -29.25%.
Fingers crossed for some winners this week.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Western Sydney Wanderers/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
2nd: Western Sydney Wanderers – Head to Head – $2.05.
3rd: Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.60.
4th: Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.16.
Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne City
Thursday 4 December, 8:00pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Early start this week with a game on Thursday night, it’s featuring Central Coast and Melbourne City. I lost a bit of faith in Central Coast last week, I gave them a good chance with the home ground advantage against Western Sydney, but they disappointed yet again going down 2-0. They didn’t really look in the hunt at any stage and are really struggling at the moment. Melbourne City is coming off a monster performance last week against Perth. They piled on the goals, 5 to be exact and their defense was tighter than it often can be only letting in one. A 5-1 will do plenty for their confidence and they can go on with it from here. I don’t think it will quite as easy as last week, but Melbourne City should be able to pull out enough to take care of Central Coast, at least on their recent form. I hate to say it but I don’t think Melbourne City should be even money, $3.75 looks too big of a price for Central Coast. I know it’s hard to trust them though, so the Draw No Bet option at $2.16 is probably the better way to go.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 3
Melbourne City 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.98
Melbourne City $2.56
Draw $3.65
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.75 Bet365
Melbourne City $2.00 Unibet
Draw $3.65 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $2.16
Melbourne City $1.86
Market Price:
Central Coast $2.63 Bet365
Melbourne City $1.48 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.77
Over $1.56
Market Price:
Under $2.40 Unibet
Over $1.64 Sportsbet
Value: Central Coast Mariners – Head to Head – $3.75.
Central Coast Mariners – Draw No Bet – $2.16.
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets
Friday 4 December, 7:40pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Sydney is trying to get back into winning form and they should get every chance when they host Newcastle on Friday night. Sydney is coming off yet another lack-luster 0-0 performance, this time it was against Wellington. They’re really struggling to score, and thankfully for them their defense is keeping them in an ok place on the ladder by getting those clean sheets. I’m not sure what is going on, because 12 months ago the Sky Blues had no issues finding the back of the net, but those days seem like a lifetime ago now. Newcastle was pretty honest again last week, hosting Brisbane; they went into the match as a slight underdog. The game finished up 1-1, which was solid enough for them in my opinion, they are shaping up as a definite finals side this season, which is good to see from a team that has struggled for a while. On ratings, it’s hard to look anywhere but Sydney, they are miles above Newcastle, but their recent struggles to score is starting to worry me. But I think if they were ever going to get back to their winning ways, this looks the perfect match. I’d love to be taking Sydney, but the price just isn’t there, my ratings are matching exactly up with the bookie prices, even in the Over/Under market. This is a sit out for me.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 4
Newcastle 0
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.63
Newcastle $6.21
Draw $4.40
Market Price:
Sydney $1.63 Centrebet
Newcastle $5.85 Unibet
Draw $4.20 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.26
Newcastle $4.80
Market Price:
Sydney $1.25 Centrebet
Newcastle $4.60 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.46
Over $1.68
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Unibet
Over $1.70 Bet365
Value: No value.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 5 December, 5:15pm (AEDT) – QBE Stadium
The red hot Melbourne Victory face Wellington this week in one of their more tougher assignments of late due to the match being played in New Zealand. Wellington was impressive last week, facing Sydney away and coming home with one point for their draw. The only problem is I don’t know if it was well played from them, or if it was just Sydney’s recent form slump that kept them in the match. The final result was only 0-0, but anyway, a point out of that fixture is a good result for them. Melbourne Victory continued on their merry way last week, this time it was Adelaide who drew the short straw. It was only a 2-1 win, so not as convincing as some of their recent wins, but they were always in control, and the three points was never in doubt. As I said above, I think this is one of Melbourne Victory’s tougher recent fixtures, but they still should be winning. I’ve rated them $2.39, which for an away side is rather short. Similar to the other Melbourne side earlier in the round, I have no doubt that Melbourne Victory have a great chance of winning the match, but their price is just too short. Wellington on the other hand look good value, and the $2.60 in the Draw No Bet market looks to be even better to me. I think it’s a solid way to attack this match.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Melbourne Victory 4
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $3.18
Melbourne Victory $2.39
Draw $3.73
Market Price:
Wellington $3.50 Bet365
Melbourne Victory $2.05 Centrebet
Draw $3.65 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.33
Melbourne Victory $1.75
Market Price:
Wellington $2.60 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $1.50 Bet365, Centrebet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.72
Over $1.58
Market Price:
Under $2.35 Unibet
Over $1.60 Everywhere
Value: Wellington Phoenix – Draw No Bet – $2.60.
Wellington Phoenix – Head To Head – $3.50.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Brisbane Roar
Saturday 5 December, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium
As Saturday night rolls up we have a pretty interesting match to look forward to, it’s Brisbane and Western Sydney who have both been playing very good football this season. Western Sydney shocked me last week when they travelled to Central Coast and handed down an easy 2-0 beating. They controlled the match from the get go, and the result always looked like being a win. While I thought they were a chance in the fixture, I never really expected anything like that. Brisbane’s match last week played out exactly how it looked on paper. It was very hard to split them and Newcastle prior to kickoff, and that didn’t change once the game got going. It was close throughout and a 1-1 draw was probably a fitting result. They started the season so well; it will be interesting to see if they can hold that form, I don’t think they will be able to. Western Sydney was so good on the road last week, and I think they’ll be even better at home this time round. They are one of the form teams in the league at the moment, and I can’t see that changing on Saturday night. I was so happy when I seen as much as $2.05 for Western Sydney, I think $2.00+ is great for them. The best value of the round looks to be in the Over/Under market though, $1.95 for Over 2.5 Goals is amazing, I have it rated $1.61.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 2
Brisbane 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.82
Brisbane $4.75
Draw $4.17
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.05 Unibet
Brisbane $3.60 Bet365, Centrebet
Draw $3.55 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.38
Brisbane $3.61
Market Price:
Western Sydney $1.50 Unibet
Brisbane $2.63 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $1.96 Sportsbet
Over $1.95 Bet365
Value: Western Sydney Wanderers/Brisbane Roar – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.95.
Western Sydney Wanderers – Head to Head – $2.05.
Adelaide United v Perth Glory
Sunday 6 December, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
We head over to Hindmarsh Stadium on Sunday to wrap-up the round with Adelaide hosting Perth. Adelaide has been the biggest disappointment of the season so far, and that was no different last week. They travelled east to take on Melbourne Victory, and while that’s always an extremely tough fixture, this used to be one of the big rivalries, but Adelaide was a pushover. Don’t pay attention to the 2-1 score line; they didn’t play like they lost 2-1, the result could have easily been a lot worse. They’re still trying to find that win, and I don’t know exactly where it is going to come from. If Adelaide was disappointing last week, I don’t know what word to use to describe Perth’s efforts against Melbourne City. It wasn’t worth them even getting on the plane for what they dealt up at AAMI Park. They lost the game 5-1, that’s conceding a goal every 20 minutes, just not good enough at this level. So this is one of those games where you don’t really want to pick anybody because both of their form has been so bad, but there has to be a result, so hopefully we can profit from it. I had to go Adelaide, even though I didn’t really want to. Their ratings stack up against Perth pretty well, especially since they are back at home this week. Unfortunately the round is finishing with a game that doesn’t look to have much value in it. I couldn’t be tempted to back anything at the current prices; hopefully you’ve already made cash out of the earlier games in the round, but for the record I think Adelaide get their first win for the season.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Perth 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.79
Perth $5.05
Draw $4.13
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.72 Centrebet
Perth $4.75 Everywhere
Draw $4.00 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.35
Perth $3.82
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.30 William Hill
Perth $3.66 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.35
Over $1.74
Market Price:
Under $2.18 Sportsbet
Over $1.72 Unibet
Value: No value.
