It was a surprising weekend all round, there wasn’t really any expected results other than Melbourne Victory winning the FFA Cup over Perth.
The weekend started off with a shock result as Melbourne City headed to Adelaide for what turned out to be a goal-a-thon. Melbourne City piled on the goals and ran out 4-2 winners.
The surprises didn’t stop on Saturday, as Sydney could only manage a draw against Brisbane when starting a very short priced favourite. Western Sydney beating Newcastle on the road followed that, and Newcastle had been in such good form the previous week, most expected them to continue on their way when back at home.
The round finished up with Central Coast and Wellington drawing 1-1. This was probably the most likely of the results from the weekend, but a bit of a boring way to finish off the week.
Hopefully we have a better weekend this week, we’ve got five games again which is nice, and although there is a couple of games that there doesn’t look to be much value in, there’s a few that really interest me.
Here’s the latest update on how the tips are going, two average weeks in a row has really hurt the results, lets hope for some positive variance this round. Of the 44 selections; I have had 20 winners, 21 losses and 3 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) -2.72 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of -6.18%.
Let’s get back on track with some more winners this week.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.30.
2nd: Newcastle Jet – Draw No Bet – $1.67.
3rd: Newcastle Jets/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
4th: Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $2.02.
Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United
Friday 13 November, 5:30pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
We kick of Round 6 with an early game on Friday at 5:30, the reason for it; it’s over in New Zealand as Wellington host Adelaide. Wellington is coming off a solid draw against Central Coast last week. Central Coast isn’t the toughest of opponents, but it was on the road, so a draw gets a pass mark from me. They scored very early in the game, and held that lead for over an hour, but unfortunately for them a late equaliser from O’Donovan meant they had to share the points. Adelaide was atrocious last week, they hosted Melbourne City and lost 4-2, this simply should never happen at home. They’re five rounds in and are yet to land their first win, I don’t know what happened in the off-season, but they are a far cry from the Adelaide of last season. This will probably be a pretty tight match, but Wellington definitely gets the nod ahead of Adelaide for me. No luck with the prices up for grabs though, prices match right up with my ratings, and there doesn’t look to be any value, might be best to just watch and have a punt on the match after this one.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 2
Adelaide 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $2.38
Adelaide $3.16
Draw $3.80
Market Price:
Wellington $2.42 William hill
Adelaide $2.88 Bet365
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $1.75
Adelaide $2.33
Market Price
Wellington $1.77 William Hill
Adelaide $2.05 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.65
Over $1.61
Market Price:
Under $2.20 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.68 Sportsbet
Value: No value.
Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 13 November, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The second match of an unusual Friday double header sees Melbourne City and Western Sydney face off at AAMI Park. Melbourne City is coming off a big win over Adelaide last week. They travelled there and handed out a 4-2 whooping, they were 3-0 up before Adelaide even hit back with a goal. They controlled the game from the get go and looked impressive doing it. Western Sydney also impressed last week, they landed an away win too, heading to Newcastle and leaving with a 2-1 win. Newcastle had been in strong form leading up to that match, so I think it was a good win from Western Sydney. Melbourne City have a great chance to land back to back wins and push their way towards the top of the table, they should be far too good for Western Sydney. Very keen on Melbourne City at the current price, at $2.30 they are the best value of the weekend in my opinion, and $1.70 with money back for a draw looks a steal.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 1
Western Sydney 2
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.70
Western Sydney $5.43
Draw $4.40
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.30 Everywhere
Western Sydney $3.00 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw $3.50 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.31
Western Sydney $4.19
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.70 William Hill
Western Sydney $2.15 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.96
Over $2.04
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Unibet
Over $1.87 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $2.30.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.70.
Newcastle Jets v Central Coast Mariners
Saturday 14 November, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
The Saturday afternoon fixture sees Newcastle playing host to Central Coast. Newcastle were disappointing last week when they lost 2-1 to Western Sydney, they had been in good form before that game, so I think we can let them off the hook once, but I’m worried that they could slip back into their form from last season. Central Coast is coming off another lack luster effort, this time it was against Wellington. They looked in trouble for most of the match after going behind 1-0 early, but a late goal meant they salvaged one point from the match. I don’t think they’ve showed much so far this season, but hopefully they can build of that draw. I personally think Newcastle should be the shortest priced favourite of the round, if you ignore their match last week their price would be a lot shorter, and closer to my quote. $2.25 that Bet365 have on offer looks great to me, surprised if this kind of value stays around for long. These teams don’t have great defenses either, so Over 2.5 Goals looks a good way to go too.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Central Coast 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.71
Central Coast $5.60
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.25 Bet365
Central Coast $3.35 William Hill
Draw $3.60 William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.31
Central Coast $4.27
Market Price
Newcastle $1.67 Bet365
Central Coast $2.47 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.60
Over $1.62
Market Price:
Under $2.00 Bet365, Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365, Unibet
Value: Newcastle Jets – Head to Head – $2.25.
Newcastle Jet – Draw No Bet – $1.67.
Newcastle Jets/Central Coast Mariners – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.80.
Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 14 November, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Allianz Stadium
Clearly the highlight of the week, we have the Grand Final rematch on Saturday night, Sydney against Melbourne Victory, it should be a cracking match. I was extremely disappointed with Sydney last week, they were at home to Brisbane and I really thought they just had to turn up to get the three points. The game ended a 0-0 draw, which I found even more surprising, it’s not often they don’t find the back of the net at least once in a match. They still hold their position at the top of the table, but only just. While Melbourne Victory had a week off the A-League, they still had a match, and a big one it was, playing Perth in the FFA Cup Grand Final. It as another walk-in-the-park Grand Final for them as they won 3-0, and it never looked in doubt. If you exclude their loss to Newcastle, their form this season has been nearly flawless, they’ve continued right on from last year. While Melbourne Victory did take care of Sydney last time hey faced off, I think Sydney could turn the tables this time. They’ve been in solid form, and it’s at their home ground this time, but I don’t doubt Melbourne Victory is right in it. While on my figures, Sydney Head to Head is the best value in this match at $2.80, I think the way to go would be Sydney in the Draw No Bet market, you’re still getting better than even money, that looks good to me, and a lot safer.
Last 5 games:
Sydney 0
Melbourne Victory 2
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Sydney $2.43
Melbourne Victory $3.15
Draw $3.70
Market Price:
Sydney $2.80 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.65 William Hill
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet, William Hill
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Sydney $1.77
Melbourne Victory $2.30
Market Price
Sydney $2.02 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $1.95 William Hill
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.23
Over $1.81
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Bet265, Unibet
Over $1.76 Sportsbet
Value: Sydney FC – Head to Head – $2.80.
Sydney FC – Draw No Bet – $2.02.
Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
Sunday 15 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
The final game of the round is Brisbane playing host to Perth. Brisbane had a strong game last week, travelling to Sydney and coming away with a point, a pretty tough feat. It’s hard to know what to make of the match, it ended 0-0, but they were a long priced outsider for the match, so any kind of result is a positive one for them. Perth had the week off the league, but had a chance to play for some silverware in the FFA Cup final. They were facing Melbourne Victory away, so it was always going to be an uphill battle. They struggled and ended up losing 3-0. It was a great effort for them to get that far, but in the league this season they have been struggling, they’ll need to pick that up a bit if they want to move up the ladder. Brisbane should be able to pressure Sydney at the top of the table this week, they did well holding them to a draw last week, now with a win they’ll have a chance to take their spot at the top. They should definitely be winning this fixture off their recent form too. Alas the weekend starts off the way it started, with a match that appears to have no real value in it. My rated prices are very similar to the market prices, there’s not one option that’s even coming close to tempting me. Hopefully you already have made some money out of the round, if not, might have to hold tight till next week.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Perth 1
Draw 3
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.72
Perth $5.56
Draw $4.21
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.70 Sportsbet, William Hill
Perth $5.00 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.80 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.31
Perth $4.24
Market Price
Brisbane $1.30 William Hill
Perth $3.75 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.14
Over $1.88
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Unibet
Over $1.75 Bet365
Value: No value.
