How good was that week, I never like to toot my own horn (too much), but of the ten selections last week, a massive nine landed! At level staking that would of yielded a profit of over 8 units, but that’s only one week, and there’s a long way to go this season, and hopefully plenty more money to be made.
The round started off on Friday night with somewhat of a shock upset, Melbourne Victory headed to Newcastle and most expected them to come home with at least a point, if not all three. Newcastle had other ideas on their mind though, they played a tough game and it looked like it was going to be a nil all draw, but in the 75th minute Carney changed all that and put Newcastle a goal up. They held onto the slender lead for the rest of the match.
There were a couple of games on Saturday, Wellington hosted Brisbane and Sydney hosted Western Sydney. Both home sides were strong favourites and they didn’t let backers down. Brisbane led early, but Wellington got over them in the end, with the high scoring affair finishing 3-2. The Sydney Derby was tight till the very end, but in the dying minutes Ninkovic broke the deadlock to give Sydney the big Derby win.
Both games on Sunday finished 3-1, firstly it was Melbourne City over Central Coast and then Perth easily handled Adelaide over in WA. Melbourne City and Central Coast were tight for a good portion of the game, but a couple of second half goals to Fornaroli was the difference, enabling the Victorian side to break away. In Perth it looked like it was going to be low scoring match, with only one goal in the first hour, but then within the next 15 minutes another three hit the back of the net, one being an own goal by Ferreira, the rest going to Perth. They ended up running out fairly easy winners.
It’s onto Round 4 and hopefully we have similar luck to last week. There doesn’t appear to be any “stand-out” matches this week, but I think seeing if Newcastle can keep their good form up away to Melbourne City will be interesting. Also having a game on Monday night (day before the Melbourne Cup public holiday for Victorians) will be good. Always thought there should be more sports on Monday nights, hopefully they get a good crowd.
I’ve had a few people on twitter asking for an update on how the tips are going so far, of the 31 selections; I have had 19 winners, 10 losses and 2 pushes. This equates to (at level staking) +7.48 units and a POT (profit on turnover) of +24.13%.
Happy punting.
@AL_TheProfits
Best Value:
1st: Western Sydney/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
2nd: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $1.80.
3rd: Brisbane/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.02.
4th: Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.45.
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
Friday 30 October, 7:40pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
The round kicks off with the hot Newcastle (yes I know how weird that sounds) heading down to face Melbourne City. The home side is coming off a very confortable win last week. They hosted Central Coast in what looked a one-way kind of match, and it panned out just that way. They were far to good for Central Coast and ended up winning 3-1. Newcastle were at home too last week, yet they were matched up against Melbourne Victory, and they weren’t given much chance by most. They played really well, and looked like they’d earn themselves a solid draw, but thanks to Carney they ended keeping all three points, and sent the premiers home empty handed. Melbourne City has been playing well, winning their only home game, and getting respectable results in their two away games so far. They’re at home again, and I think they shouldn’t have any reason to drop any points this week either. I’m more than happy with the $1.80 Sportsbet have gone up with for Melbourne City, that looks pretty generous in my eyes. I know it’s short, but the $1.35 for Draw No Bet looks a gift too. I don’t want to give away any spoilers, but there isn’t much value in the Head to Head market’s this week, so if you want to get on, I’d suggest this is the one.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 3
Newcastle 1
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.53
Newcastle $7.30
Draw $4.76
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.80 Sportsbet
Newcastle $5.00 Bet365
Draw $4.00 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.21
Newcastle $5.76
Market Price
Melbourne City $1.35 Sportsbet
Newcastle $3.75 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.67
Over $1.60
Market Price:
Under $2.15 Bet365
Over $1.74 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne City – Head to Head – $1.80.
Melbourne City – Draw No Bet – $1.35.
Central Coast Mariners v Sydney FC
Saturday 31 October, 5:15pm (AEDT) – Bluetongue Stadium
Saturday afternoon football is at Bluetongue Stadium this week as Central Coast and Sydney clash. Central Coast were pretty average last week, I know they were playing away to a talented side in Melbourne City, but throughout the match they didn’t challenge all that much and the end result was inevitable. They ended up going down 3-1, which is pretty indicative of the game. Most thought Sydney was going to have a walk in the park when they came up against their rivals Western Sydney, who have been out of form for a while, but it didn’t turn out that way. It was a hard fought match till the end but Ninkovic managed to bury a very late goal to give Sydney the bragging rights this time around. They don’t always look to have a hold on a game, but they seem to find the win, which is what really matters. I can’t see why Sydney won’t continue on their merry way and bag another three points. Central Coast will have to start showing something more before my opinion on them changes. I hate games like this, the bookmaker prices are basically all spot on with mine, there doesn’t look to be any value anywhere. The $2.15 for Sydney is ok, but not enough value for me to make it a selection; it would need to drift a little ($2.20+) for me to be interested. The other markets are much the same. It’s a sit out for me; maybe enjoy the end of Derby Day instead of having an interest in this match.
Last 5 games:
Central Coast 2
Sydney 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Central Coast $4.13
Sydney $2.01
Draw $3.85
Market Price:
Central Coast $3.60 William Hill
Sydney $2.15 Bet365, Unibet
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Central Coast $3.05
Sydney $1.49
Market Price
Central Coast $2.46 Sportsbet
Sydney $1.57 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.02
Over $1.98
Market Price:
Under $2.05 Bet365
Over $1.76 Unibet
Value: No value.
Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United
Saturday 31 October, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
Saturday night rolls around and the currently struggling Adelaide have to head up to sunny Queensland to take on Brisbane. Brisbane was 2-0 before they headed to Wellington last week, and that task was just too tough for them. They made a good fist of it, but in the end they lost 3-2. It’s never an easy road trip that one, and I think they held their own. Their form is looking much stronger than last years. So far Adelaide have probably been the surprise packet of the season (I know it’s only early days), but not for the right reasons. Most had high opinions of them after their strong season last year, but they are yet to get a win. They were over in Perth last week and while they did control the game, they only managed one shot on target; Perth on the other hand had four shots on target, and converted three of them. The only goal Adelaide got was courtesy of an own goal, but by that stage the game was already over, they lost 3-1. This looks the tightest game of the round to me, and while it could go either way, on current form I have to give the nod to Brisbane. Another game where my prices are matching right up with the best the bookies are offering, $3.50 for Adelaide is getting close, but I’d want $3.60+ to touch them. Thankfully there is a play that I’m keen on though, it looks like it will be a tight, low scoring match, and at $2.02, I think Under 2.5 Goals is good value.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 2
Adelaide 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.32
Adelaide $3.23
Draw $3.84
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.10 Bet365, Sportsbet
Adelaide $3.50 William Hill
Draw $3.50 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.72
Adelaide $2.39
Market Price
Brisbane $1.57 Bet365
Adelaide $2.48 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $1.79
Over $2.27
Market Price:
Under $2.02 Unibet
Over $1.80 Bet365
Value: Brisbane/Adelaide – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.02.
Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory
Sunday 1 November, 5:00pm (AEDT) – Parramatta Stadium
Only one game this Sunday and it features Western Sydney hosting Perth. Western Sydney had a decent game last week, it was the big Sydney Derby, and for 87 minutes they kept Sydney scoreless, unfortunately games go a little longer than that and they let one in late. Even though they lost 1-0, they played well for the whole match, and I think they can build on that performance. Perth are coming off a good win against Adelaide, and even though they didn’t have all that much possession, they managed to net three goals, running away easy 3-1 winners. This is another tight game, but I think Western Sydney definitely have the edge over Perth. Once again, there’s not much value at all in the Head to Head markets, thankfully the Overs/Unders market looks the goods again. This time it’s the Overs, the game looks like there will be plenty of goals, and I can’t believe that Unders is the favourite.
Last 5 games:
Western Sydney 1
Perth 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $2.14
Perth $3.74
Draw $3.78
Market Price:
Western Sydney $2.10 William Hill
Perth $3.80 Sportsbet
Draw $3.60 Bet365, Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Western Sydney $1.57
Perth $2.75
Market Price
Western Sydney $1.44 Bet365
Perth $2.87 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.83
Over $1.55
Market Price:
Under $1.88 Unibet
Over $2.05 Bet365
Value: Western Sydney/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $2.05.
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix
Monday 2 November, 7:30pm (AEDT) – Etihad Stadium
The A-League week is extended to Monday this round with Melbourne Victory hosting Wellington on Melbourne Cup Eve. Melbourne Victory would be very disappointed losing last week to Newcastle, even though they were away, they would have been expecting all three points, or at least one point, but not a 1-0 loss. They’ve now had two games where they haven’t scored, which is unlike Melbourne Victory; we’ll have to see if they can bounce back. Wellington were expected to win, but were still impressive enough against Brisbane. They beat them 3-2, and they looked to control most of the game, the score line is probably closer than it should have been. This is Melbourne Victory’s game to lose; they’ll have a big crowd behind them at Etihad Stadium, and anything but a win is not acceptable. The price for Melbourne Victory is close to representing value, but it just comes up short, I’d need $1.70 to make it a selection, and that small price drift is a definite possibility. I have a selection, and it’s a pretty brave one, I’m going for Under 2.5 Goals. I know Melbourne Victory average a lot of goals when at home, but I just can’t ignore the $2.45. I do think Over should be favourite in the market, but not as short as it is, the value is with the Unders.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne Victory 3
Wellington 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.55
Wellington $6.34
Draw $5.05
Market Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.67 Sportsbet
Wellington $5.00 Everywhere
Draw $4.50 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne Victory $1.24
Wellington $5.08
Market Price
Melbourne Victory $1.28 Sportsbet
Wellington $3.90 Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.20
Over $1.84
Market Price:
Under $2.45 Unibet
Over $1.63 Sportsbet
Value: Melbourne Victory/Wellington – Under 2.5 Goals – $2.45.
